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masheeuk

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Posts posted by masheeuk

    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

    Well, I only ever look at individual model runs with the Met Office's monthly forecast in mind -- they do, after all, know far more than I ever will. But, anyway, here are the GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles for Cambridgeshire:

    t850Cambridgeshire.png    t2mCambridgeshire.png

    You are joking I hope. I wouldn't trust the Met Office to get the date for Christmas right!

    • Like 2

    Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 13/03/2020 at 22:34, Midlands Ice Age said:

    What with one thing and another..  (away at the weekend, car problems, shopping , reading blogs on COVID 19, etc) . 

    Just realised that I have not updated for about a week.

    So here goes from Masie.

    Extent has probably reached the maximum a week ago, as since then there has been two massive drops. Volume (and thickness) continue to rise for a while yet. 

    Gains/losses in extent over the last few days of (-180K), (-50K), (+24K), (+43K), (+20K), (+53K),and today of (-129K) have left the extent  -114K Km2 below 15.000KKm2.

    Some surprising results there considering that the first massive loss occurred when the DMI temp (see below) was it its lowest for 5 years, and the recent drop has occurred as it levelled off after its sharp rise (whilst the ice regrew!!).

    More confirmation of my previous comments that the rise in  extent is almost inversely related to the temperature at this time of year. It is probably caused by loss of ice due to wind changes in the perimeter areas, as the weather changes over the Arctic.

    Todays loss is mainly in the SOO and Barents.

    image.thumb.png.989a49cb0b78999bcafdf46f215053c4.png

    Severe cyclonic weather is forecast over the Arctic in the next few days, with temperatures remaining below average initially before rising again in a couple of days, but warmer air has already returned to Bering and Chukchi (as  per before the Xmas period). 

    image.thumb.png.870a7a22fed8f04ba6474b1357ed45be.png     and    image.thumb.png.9e207f3a9201b674f8de4ff50d01e2a9.png

     

    This years refreeze since January shows similarities to the one we saw in 2012, where an early season average extent  values dropped off the cliff in August when the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) took over. We must hope that  the same thing does not happen again this year.

    In other news  the general Arctic Ocean has been rocked by 4 quite large earthquakes (R4 - 5.5) over the last month. These have occurred whilst a blizzard of smaller earthquakes have been occurring off Iceland, these are being discussed in the Earthquake thread..

    These 4  major earthquakes have occurred in the ridge just west of Svalbard, and also a bit further north of Svalbard at the entrance to the Fram Straight.  Activity was last recorded about 5 years ago in these areas, and it is obvious that the tectonic plates around the arctic are becoming restless. 

    The Mosaic project is now being disrupted by other large cracks (leads) that are being caused by the high winds over the pole. They had prepared (piste bashing) a runway for the use of various aircraft, but that has to be now re-developed, as the whole area has been isolated by the openings in the ice .  At least they now have some daylight in which to see the dangers.    

    MIA

    What are the chances that therese earthquakes are part of the reason for the big drops in extent. Surely water would amplify the effect and make any earthquake hit the ice harder and force some fracturing and losses on the extremes whilst any fractures near the pole would probably just refreeze in the current temperatures.

    Just something that I was wondering.

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Never mind Karlos1983. An extended colder spell at the beginning of November is not really what we,re after surely, an extended colder spell in the run up to Xmas or anytime thereafter is far more likely to deliver the goods 

    I must disagree, I always look forward to a very cold guy fawkes night where you can see your own breath.

    • Like 6

    Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2017 - The Melt Season

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    On 20/04/2017 at 18:44, reef said:

    Continuing on from the discussion in the old thread...

    Longer term you have to look at where any recovery might come from. The ENSO forecast suggests yet another moderate or strong El Nino this winter, so we could yet again be looking at a globe warmer than the long-term trend. That's more heat being transferred north when the ice is still suffering from the hit of the last 12 months.

    I wonder if this current period will look like another step change downwards similar to around 2007?

    Could you please tell me where I can find this ENSO forecast.

     

    Thank you

    Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

    in Climate Change

    Posted · Edited by masheeuk

     

     Remember 2012 started with a lot of ice yet still took records for all measures. What would a 2012 type year do to a 2014 start point?

    I thought that the August storm that is talked about even now crippled what was otherwise going to be a melt season that would have matched the previous couple of years. Plenty of links below

     

    http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic-storm.html

     

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2012/08/a-summer-storm-in-the-arctic/

     

    http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~arctic/presentations/Arctic_storms_Ben_Harvey.pdf

    Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

    in Climate Change

    Posted · Edited by masheeuk

    http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

     

    Linking of low Arctic ice to rapid snow line advance in Autumn and cold winters....

     

    The 'Warm Arctic , Cold continents' linking.

     

    The fact that 'warming' over the rest of the year continues seems to mean a new 'trend' for the northern hemisphere may be in the offing as the planet warms further?

     

    I remember asking about the impacts of open water Arctic back in the mid 90's esp. the impacts of convection over areas where we did not used to see it and increased R.H. of the air over the basin. Though far faster than we thought it would be we are beginning to see the impacts.

     is this a science paper or a periodical especially as it says magazine on the front cover

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