John88B

Interesting model watching today with some cracking runs for lovers of cold. The model output along with updates from the met office and BBC weather presenters has me hoping we're on the cusp of a half decent cold spell. The length of the cold and depth of cold still to be nailed down. In the meantime a respite from the constant wet and mild weather down here as the weather gradually cools. Plenty to be positive about for those of a cold persuasion as we head through January.

3.3c and 75mm please.

So the ecm has set off some early new years fireworks in the forum. Still a lot of disagreement between the models at a fairy short time frame but it's going to be fascinating model watching over the next few days. Still plenty to be resolved but however this pans out there's going to be fireworks going off in here to rival any new year displays

Just had a tasty squall line go through here. 20231227_141452.mp4

Plenty of promise for cold lovers going into January. If we can't have a seasonal Christmas a wintery new year followed by a cold January wouldn't be a bad runners up prize Whilst the weather outside over Christmas is going to be rather mild and drab for most I feel the models may be showing something very different for the turn of the year and further into January. Merry Christmas all. Cheers

Yep good luck to those up north In my 54 years on the planet living in this part of the world I can only remember snow on the ground on Christmas day twice but never snow falling on Christmas day so that's how rare a white Christmas is in these parts. I really need to temper my hopes and optimism Anyway possibilities up north but it looks like game over for the south, if we were ever truly in the game that is! Anyway for what it's worth I believe we'll see a few decent cold shots this winter, or is this me being too optimistic again Cheers all

A lot of ups and downs in here the last few days in the understandable chase for wintery weather over the Christmas period. I sense we're on a bit of a downer in here this morning but with Christmas still eight days away there's still all to play for. I'm expecting more ups and downs in the coming days as the models firm up on the weather over Christmas but remain as optimistic as ever that the cards fall in our favour for a change and give us something seasonal Cheers all.

Wasn't it our local weatherman Fergie who a few years back mentioned that the GEM was held in pretty high regard at the met office? Hopefully the GEM has it nailed

Pretty good model consistency now and loving the positivity in here this morning Hopefully soon a more positive, definitive update from the met office for a cold, seasonal and maybe snowy Christmas period

I can't sleep so thought I'd come on here and take a look. So it looks like another 5 days of mild and at times wet weather and then dry and cooler as the high pressure comes into our vicinity. After that the possibility of the high migrating north and bringing us much colder weather towards Christmas. Interesting model watching ahead and a position cold lovers would have killed for over many a previous drab, mild December

I love your optimism Ali and I don't think it's misplaced Certainly I think from mid month model watching is going to become more interesting for those of a cold persuasion. Until then the real worry is copious amounts of rain from numerous bands of heavy rain falling on already sodden ground in some parts of the country.

I can't remember ever being stuck under such a slow moving area of rain for so long. In fact most of the day it's not moved at all! It's slowly edging east now but the met office still have us down for another 5 hours of rain from it. The amount of rain that has fallen must be impressive because it's been heavy and steady here since last night pretty much.

That won't be a problem, we're used to having patience in the UK as we await some meaningful cold weather I agree probably nothing of real interest in the next 10 day but after that I genuinely believe the models will start showing something of interest in the nearer term leading to a cold spell towards the end of December. Hopefully in time for Christmas

I've just noticed the met office now have us down for sleet here at 10pm rather than the rain they had us down for beforehand. It's an upgrade! I might at least see a few flakes amongst the rain before it turns to rain only. May the upgrades continue Edit- Now back to just rain. God it's hard living in the snow starved west country

I agree, this combined with the met offices extended forecast for late December talking of a possible longer cold spell makes me believe we could be in for something rather special for those of a cold persuasion. The last time I heard the met office talk of cold a month ahead was 2010! Not saying it will happen or be as severe as 2010 but fascinating model watching in store for the month ahead

I love your informative posts Cambrian, keep them coming. It shows the struggle milder air can have as it encroaches into colder air. As you say very interesting model watching over the next few days. I just wish I had half the knowledge of yourself and many of the other great contributors on here. Cheers.

So it's looking like milder weather is set to slowly move in from the start of next week unless there's a dramatic changes in the models but still lots to be positive about. We have a tremendous amount of bitter cold to our north east waiting to be tapped into and surely if it remains there we will have numerous more chances to tap into it again over this coming winter. It would be nice to see that cold uncorked as we're all uncorking our champagne over the Christmas period I'm no expert but I think there's every chance it could happen.

Not the most inspiring runs overnight for those of a cold persuasion but we do have a few days of cold weather nailed on and plenty of time for the models to take a turn for the better Anyway it's still not even officially winter yet!

I went to bed last night sensing a bit of despondency and wake up sensing a lot more positivity. You've got to love this thread On a side note I've just heard a local weatherman on the radio talking about a two week cold spell at the very least! Who knows, we could be in for a cracking, seasonal December

I was out at 4am this morning and the van thermometer, which is pretty accurate, was showing -2.5c. It looks like an interesting weeks weather ahead with some cold days and very cold nights on offer after a brief warm up tomorrow and who knows, maybe a bit of snow for some with a bit of luck. Anyway it's nice to at least have some seasonal weather as we head into winter

Morning all. Could anyone explain what phasing is and is it always a bad thing? Cheers.

Yep, looking at the models a cracking start to winter on offer. We would have killed for charts like these at the starts of winters past. I see nothing to be despondent about.

It's so nice to be back in the busy season on here with a real chance of some early winter cold on offer. Maybe December is set to break the endless run of milder than average months. From someone who struggles to read the charts, thanks to all the knowledgeable posters and everyone else who make this thread such compulsive reading

4.2c and 80mm please.

As the outside temperature cools the temperature in the mod thread rises. The bickering is starting and will only increase as we head into winter. The bickering, the toy throwing and great input from the knowledgeable contributors make it compulsive viewing. It's going to be a long, hard winter in the mod thread and hopefully outside too