John88B

The winter fun and games begins on the mod thread. Lots of positive comments for lovers of cold weather yet Matt Hugo disagreeing with them and he knows his stuff. So confusing for a complete novice like me but great reading nonetheless. For my part, living in one of the milder parts of the country, my interest really starts in early December when down here cold, wintry weather becomes a real possibility. Anyway best of luck this season for lovers of cold seasonal weather and let's hope for a few months bucking the trend of the endless milder than average months

A quick question about the Met Office. What other tools, models, do they have at their disposal that we don't get to see? Cheers in advance

I sense a little excitement in the mod thread this morning. I love this time of year as the roller coaster takes off. With the outlook for early December looking at least seasonal, I think there's a lot to be positive about. I'm no expert but for what it's worth I think we will see some decent wintry weather for all this year. I could be wrong but if we lived in a country where the weather was certain it would all be rather boring and pointless coming on here. Anyway best of luck to those of a cold, wintry persuasion and let's hope for a decent ride on this winters roller coaster.

The last sentence from the met office longer term forecast is as follows "Temperatures generally on the mild side for the time of year, but possibly easing back close to, or locally below normal by early December, perhaps more especially in western and northern areas". The possibility of at least a nice seasonal start to winter

I would say that's a positive winter outlook for those of a cold persuasion

If he usually forecasts blizzards and epic cold and is wrong it must be a good thing that he's predicting mild. All we need now is Madden on board predicting a mild winter and we're sure to have a cold one

My heating has been on on numerous occasions. I love a nice warm house as the nights draw in.

6.7c and 67mm please.

Absolutely pouring down here in Thornbury with an even heavier pulse about to come through judging by the radar. It seems the rain has come a bit further south that was being forecast last night.

If my memory serves me right wasn't Sheffield hit by severe flooding a few years back with people living in temporary caravans for ages afterwards. Let's hope there's no repeat of that.

Yes it's still here Edit - sorry misread you post. I'm not sure about the archive.

I've woken up after a great sleep and just checked out the netweather radar. Well that's golf this afternoon cancelled! Oh well plenty of sport on tv to watch whilst the interesting weather outside chucks everything but the kitchen sink at us.

Yep a fantastic spell of weather the last few weeks have been. Still very useable warm weather for the next few days and then every chance of even warmer, sunny weather incoming from the middle of next week, particularly for more southern and eastern areas. Nothing to be despondent about if you like summery weather.

Looking at the radar we have another incoming now that has bubbled up behind it.

I'm working in Olveston just north of Bristol and a cracking storm has broken out now. Torrential rain, frequent lightning and some of the loudest claps of thunder I've ever heard. The house just literally shook!

It will inevitably turn unsettled at some point. Hopefully not until October

A cracking last ten days or so in this part of the world. No rain and pretty much constant sunshine with bearable max temperatures between 20c and 22c. The outlook is more of the same. Perfect weather in my book.

It's been snowing here in Thornbury for the last couple of hours and now coming down heavily. It was just settling on cars and roof tops but now roads and pavements getting covered. All starting to look rather lovely.

12cm right over me. Cheers Mike but I'll believe it when I see it

It sounds like the models are all over the place for this week then, even at this late stage. It certainly makes for interesting model watching and as you say a lot of it will come down to nowcasting and of course lamp post watching All areas still in the game so will be interesting to see how all this pans out and who gets lucky.

If the concern was the cold missing us to the east but now missing us to the west then maybe we'll have a middle ground solution and get a direct hit

Morning all, good to see the thread so busy so early in the morning and this late in the season. Certainly plenty of exciting possibilities for cold lovers going in to March. When Crewcold is posting a lot I take notice and who knows BFTE's apocalyptic weather predictions may come true Anyway exciting model watching coming up over the next few weeks. Thanks to all the knowledgeable posters who make this thread such a great read.

Yep Fergie on our local weatherman last night mentioned the SSW for the first time on our local news saying the chance of much colder weather at the end of Feb and early March. I would presume the models would start picking up on this soon. Interesting model watching coming up for sure.

Our local weatherman Fergie made his first mention of the SSW on the local news last night. He was saying it brings the chance of much colder weather at the end of February and the start of March. We're lucky to have him here in the west country and I'm looking forward to his updates. An interesting few weeks of weather watching coming up for sure.

The GFS firmly sticking to its guns. As others have mentioned, you can't totally discount a model that is consistent in showing something. The met office certainly haven't! As other have also mentioned it was also the GFS that was the first to pick up on the extreme heat of last summer, although this was before its upgrade. The plot thickens but the GFS may just be right. Time will tell.