John88B

The ecm has been very consistent now for a few days whilst the gfs has flapped about. If the ecm proves correct, which I have a hunch it is, would it be wise to take more notice of the ecm this winter rather than the gfs or does it not work like that? I'd be interested to see the verification stats of both lately.

3.7c and 50mm please.

How do we want that iberian low to behave from a cold perspective?? Cheers.

Just some chilly seasonal weather would do me just fine through December and the run up to Christmas with the hope of it leading to something even colder. It looks perfectly feasible to me.

A complete novice here so excuse me if this is a daft question but what does mogreps have to say about this, why is it rarely mentioned and how often does it update? Cheers.

Quick question. Is that what is called an omega block?

This is unfortunately very true but who knows, maybe this year a proper cold one.

Ian Fergusson on our local weather forecast just mentioned the risk of something colder through December.

Another thunder storm coming over here now. A really impressive evening of thundery activity and very heavy rain.

Incredibly heavy rain for the last hour here in Thornbury and more to come looking at the radar. Definitely going to be flooding issues in the area tonight. A few miles south of here will be wondering what all the fuss is about.

I'm no expert but I've had the feeling for a while now that the end of November/start of December will see the first cold shot of the winter with snow for some. Like a said just a gut feeling but the start of winter proper so a great time for it to happen and all the mild muck that has gone before will be quickly forgotten. Fingers crossed for cold lovers or even just those wanting to see something a bit more seasonal.

Yeah I just saw the latest models so scrap the average Nov This run of above average months has got to break soon so hopefully December.

I'm going to buck the trend here and go for an average November temperature wise then a colder December and early January with snow for many.

Ian Fergusson on our local weather saying slightly elevated risk of cold weather through late Nov, December and January. Signs of northern blocking.

The January 8th blizzard is the standout snowstorm I will never forget. I was 12 years old living in a rural area just north of Bristol. A biting easterly gale set in with temperatures well below freezing and heavy snow. This didn't relent for nearly 48 hours. The end result was up to 50cm of level snow, even in areas at sea level near the Bristol channel coast and 70cm in the more hilly areas. The west county and south Wales were paralysed for a week as freezing temperatures continued for days after the snowstorm. The country lane I lived in was closed for a week with drifts up to 20 feet. I still remember looking out over the fields with the hedgerows disappeared at what looked like a raging sea of deep snow. A truly memorable event.

Many also talk about the 70s as if we were constantly snow bound every winter but, correct me if I'm wrong, weren't many of the 70s winters pretty snowless, particularly the early 70s?

The only thing brewing here at the moment is a nice cup of tea On a serious note I tend to agree with you (might be wishful thinking) but I've had thoughts that late Nov/early Dec could bring our first, of hopefully many, cold blasts. To tell the truth here down south great cold synoptics are wasted this time of year anyway. Whilst I'd rather have cooler, more seasonal temperatures here at the moment the plus side of this mild weather has been low heating bills and some great golf! Cheers all.

7.8c and 120mm please

Minus 20c more like

Many thanks Don, I'm learning, slowly

What is that chart showing please??

It looks bang on to me

The UK climate has changed since time began.

Yep the winters in the 70s were in general pretty mild but 79 was great. Winter 81/82 had it's moments with cold and snow before Xmas and one huge snowfall in January down here in the west country and south Wales. A couple of other half decent ones in the early to mid 80s. Probably the one's you mentioned.

10c and 100mm please.