I remember Atlantic 252

January 14

5 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I’m not too bothered about how hot or cold it’ll feel. I’m more concerned about how much rain we’ll get once the mild SW feed takes over? The models look very dry away from western areas for the majority of the country, yet some are saying Atlantic lows will barrel through? Confused.com

Ops don't look too bad on todays runs, if a cherry picked ens member is trotted out, its best to ignore it, will tell you on top right of chart, ens25 etc

January 14

23 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Got the -10C 850hPa isotherm making its way down through England tomorrow, which Is what I and likely many others class as very cold air for UK standards, especially for a northerly. Even with sunny conditions temps will definitely struggle to climb above 1-2C for most in the region bar from far SW tomorrow. Not bad going for a northerly in a warmer global climate I have to admit. Snow maker for northern Scotland this.

boring with no precip, may as well be mild

January 14

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

Latest Met graphics show more precipitation around everywhere generally on Thursday.

Just need a big clump to form in the Irish sea rather than showers, which is never really forecastable. Happened on the morning of 23rd January 2021.

was okay here that too, but did much better with the low on 24th

January 14

5 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

What makes you think that? Forecasts not showing anything in that region

not this year, but we will as years go on

January 14

3 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

And is continuing to change, of course. Can't be that long before we see 20C in January.

expect that soon, most likely in last 10 days

January 14

9 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

February is over a fortnight away, it might deliver some very wintry weather and it might deliver wet and/or mild weather, no one knows right now, if models can get everything wrong 7-10 days away they ain't worth looking at 14-21 days away.

Feb I'd be happy with Spring warmth, or snow chances, just not wet and windy

January 14

4 hours ago, sundog said:

100% getting milder. How anyone could think they are getting colder is either dillusional or in denial.

exactly, this thread is pointless!

January 14

hopefully GFS 12Z improving after Friday, doesn't look all that bad, highish pressure, mild at times maybe but miles better than low after low on a southerly jet

January 13

2 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

I’d say a Bartlett/Euro high with southerlies or south easterlies. Something like Feb 2019 but not as warm due to shorter days and lower sun angle.

month too early, hope for it in Feb, any sort of southerly breeze with low well out west

January 13

1 hour ago, CharlieBear9 said:

Yes, been a lovely sunny day with only light winds. Would have cut the lawn after the dry week but frosts to come next few nights.

Aye, was good to get my 99 year old Nan out for a 'walk' in King's Bromley, signs of Spring felt, as sun getting stronger now,

January 13

26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

March 86, 96, 01, 06 and 13 all shared strong similiarities. Cold, dull woth easterlies dominating. March can be a very easterly month.

it can, but more so April and May which are the 2 most E'ly months

January 13

5 minutes ago, cheese said:

I’d probably agree if our winters weren’t so depressing and useless. Since proper winter conditions are increasingly rare, I’d rather have spring-like weather instead.

Yes and me, but many want wind and rain

January 13

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

All change by next weekend on the beebs forecast with temps back widely in double figures as the Atlantic fires back up

Enjoy your wind and rain, I'd rather have it dry/sunny

January 13

probably find wed low will be same as 4th Jan this year, except snow not rain, I could see the frontal cloud here

January 13

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Not really paying attention to it yet, GFS is probably playing it's normal game at that distance. I think it will be weaker, hopefully much weaker, and do something completely different, but I guess we'll see

hopefully we'll see the EC going way of UKMO, with little rain and higher pressure

January 13

Just now, Harveyslugger said:

Yeah maybe.I myself just know who to believe who not

Harvey, definitely chance of dangler, models posted in Wales thread

January 13

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

I just wish it was frozen

would get no snow then, Irish sea is a snow maker

January 13

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I’m at a complete loss as to how it’s going to rain on Tuesday. Potent northerly with at least -10 uppers. Low pressure system bumping into it and instead of turning to snow it’s keeps at rain. Just to cap it off Yorkshire disruptive snow, Lancashire rain unless you live up a big hill. Just unbelievable.

quite a big mild sector, a bit off -10 uppers

January 13

31 minutes ago, Rain Lady said:

Lovely and mild 6.3C, with gentle W breeze,. No need to cringe today, Some shafts of sunlight. Land drying out at last. More snowdrop buds showing and some have now dropped their heads. Spring .... !

Aye, was a great day to get my 99 year old Nan out for a walk in King's Bromley, not so next Sat though, but some prefer warm and wet to 6C and sunny

January 13

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Well, I suppose I should look on the bright side...... now the models are showing a flat, mild southwesterly again in FI, it does give us the small chance that it could all flip around back to Baltic in the next few days?

I know that's rare, but it has happened??!

Being a Midlander, I class a "dumping" as around 2mm of lying snow

Aye, 1cm is good for here, doubt I'll see that

January 13

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

The south east had a dumping over a week ago, my sister was in London and texted about the snow.

I got excited here at the same time, as we'd just had a light ground frost

The central Midlands is the least snowy place in the UK, even Cornwall gets more than us!!

did they? though some areas had a bit on Mon 8th

January 13

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Well ive just woken up and why did i bother taking a look at the models!!well and truly shocking!!cold blasted out the way just like that!!to be fair ec46 forecasted this coming mild spell very very well in my opinion for week 21-28 jan!!!my issue is hardly any of us could see meaningful snow by the time the cold is gone!!!!i really hope i get to see something even if it is 5cms jheez!!!!!

Kasim will see a lot, but Midlands low levels is worst place to be, even the SE may not see much

January 13

1 minute ago, Barking_Mad said:

It's usually best to stick to the professional forecast which they nailed down the general theme. Only query was where the low went which now seems much more certain.

That other thread is hilarious. Not many impartial attempts at forecasting, just hopecasting and disappointment. Always worth a laugh for non forecaster like myself

the hopecasting is for 'likes', everyone knows it's turning back to normal on 20th, just hopefully not as wet as earlier

January 13

11 hours ago, SummerShower said:

2014 is another contender, for a fan of stormy winters. Realise I might be in a minority here. 1990 also.

If we can't have snowy January's, give me a 2014 or 1990 (minus the flooding).

If we can't have snowy January's, I'd prefer dry mild, signs of early Spring

January 13

29 minutes ago, weathercold said:

I think this must go down as one of the biggest epic busts in NW history.

Thinking back only two weeks ago to some extremely exciting Greenland blocking projections with scope for bitter cold and snow until late Jan and into Feb, often with rock solid ensembles.

We’ve been patient after all, a crud half winter, washout December, record breaking mild Xmas….all leading to mid Jan and the epic cold spell.

Historic…epic …coldest since 2018…the list of superlatives were endless.

As the ‘cold spell’ ticked down two days before the magic 15th date - booom it all fell apart. No snow for most, temps above freezing for most (in bleak mid winter), next week is a total blink, non descript chilly few days.

You have to laugh - we’ve chased this for 2 weeks and fallen at the final hurdle.

To compound matters the models are about as bad as they could look for late Jan and into Feb, supported across the model suite and backed up beautifully by the E46.

I don’t think many of us could have predicted this - what’ an epic bust.

Personally now looking forward to spring, longer days and warmer with hopefully sunny days too. Winter 23/24 another joke of a ‘winter’.

Ticking down nicely to Spring, not that far away

Never underestimate the jet/Atlantic, it's January, Atlantic powers through, now April is different, we'll get prolonged N/E'ly then

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Posts posted by I remember Atlantic 252