mattrout92
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Everything posted by mattrout92
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UKV ppn and snow depths for the 15z run now available:
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We will soon find out! Won't be long now till we will be switching to the radar as it approaches!
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Snow Depths from UKV 12Z here, looking good! Who's looking forward to some snow then
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Updated UKV Snow Depths - the model runs every 3 hours which is good Hoping for the first snow here in the lower Ogmore Valley since 31st January 2019, which was a similar event.
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With 24 hours until the main event, here's the UKV from now until tomorrow eve:
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Dewpoints around 0 degrees and 850s are around -5 at 6am Sunday
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Tonights UKV pushes the precipitation through very quickly and has a much higher Northern and Eastern extent. Also risk of it turning sleety/rainy on the coasts Accumulations are only really on ground above 100m and away from the coasts Could do with some Southern corrections tomorrow
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This is the UKV's take on how the front moves through Wales on Sunday, it shows it as a mostly snow event
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12Z UKV Snow Depths for Sunday: Newport gets a battering
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Harmonie has the ppn further North: EURO4 on the flip side doesn't even get it close to us:
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Lovely frost here this morning, should be more over the next few days too! Good to see the models keeping with the snowy theme on Sunday too. UKV improved this morning and has the precipitation further North: Not sure how accurate these are, but the snow depth for Sunday has around 10cm in the Vale of Glamorgan area:
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Extended UKV is dreadful this evening, this is the closest the precipitation gets before it fades out to nothing: Thankfully it's the odd one out with all the other models getting it further North. We should know more tomorrow when the Harmonie and Euro4 come into range!
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ECM keeping with the more Northerly track Saturday into Sunday
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GFS 12Z is very good for snow on Sunday: the UKMO 12Z is at the opposite end of the spectrum however and has the low nowhere near us: it just clips the South Coast of England, and would not have much precipitation associated with it
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Agreed, the major models all seem to be pointing to a period of snow in South Wales on Sunday morning. The UKV extended model from this morning only shows the precipitation nudging the South coast before moving away, which is probably why the Met Office aren't on board yet.
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Snow for some on tonight's ECMWF run for a short time on Sunday: the UKMO run is very similar:
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The models have been quite poor for our region over the last few days, but I still think we have a good chance of something like this around the last week of January/ first week of Feb
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Better on 18Z for Saturday. If this front stalls over and doesn't go too far East, with cold air digging in, it could be game on!
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Looking further ahead for the next cold spell, the ECM is showing this on this morning's run, which actually ties in with the Met Office's longer range forecast following on from the SSW in the past few days: Unlikely to verify exactly like this, but shows a potential scenario of what could set up over the next 30 days.
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GFS still showing potential for some snow Friday, ECM starting to come on board to the idea too... One to keep an eye on GFS 06Z ECMWF 00Z
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GFS still showing a significant spell of snow on Friday: Unfortunately ECMWF and UKMO not buying it at the moment
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Still there this morning on GFS 0Z, as posted above. ECMWF doesn't develop the feature as much with snow showers pushing down from the Midlands, a bit like the other night, but they fade away over the Beacons more. ECMWF 0z: Probably one to keep an eye on when it approaches the time frame for the shorter range models
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GFS 18Z showing some possible snow moving through our region on Friday
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Light snow here in Blackmill, not much intensity to it but it is sticking on ground and cars
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Rain turned to wet snow in Blackmill just north of Bridgend at 100m asl. Nothing on the ground here, but suspect there could be further up the Ogmore Valley
