mattrout92
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Everything posted by mattrout92
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Unfortunately that's in line with the latest UKV which keeps South Wales dry again tomorrow
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Yeah a little bit underwhelming. But they did the same thing a couple of weeks ago only to change their mind and put a warning out on the day itself, so let's hope for a repeat performance!
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Forecast for me tomorrow... Yes please!
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Latest UKV for tomorrow: . .
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Upgrade from the ICON this evening .
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Hopefully ECM / Harmonie / ICON are correct for Saturday. UKV goes for a repeat performance of today offering absolutely nothing
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Pembrokeshire does have a warning now for today which is interesting
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He's saying it's hard to forecast this weekend's weather especially Saturday because some models like the ICON are forecasting 10-15cm of snow, whereas others like the GFS and ECM are forecasting close to 0cm
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Yep UKV Extended looking like this for Saturday, a bit better than the ECM! Not great for SW Wales though unfortunately . .
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ECM for Saturday:
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No, there's still a good chance of some snow, this is a snapshot taken from the video (blue is snow, red is sleet / freezing rain, green is rain): So it has snow for South East Wales and freezing rain further West
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Met Office 10 day trend is as always an interesting watch. They go into details about why we could see some snow with a risk freezing rain especially in Wales on Saturday as the front tries to push in from the Atlantic, but are confident we will return to mild and wet conditions by the end of the weekend and into next week.
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Yeah the 06Z managed to get the front into Wales, but the 09Z killed it off before it arrived
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The met office forecasts are based off the UKV which run every three hours. At 11am today the UKV was showing this: which is why it was forecasting snow for Milford Haven. The latest run shows this for the same time: which is why it now doesn't forecast snow. It will probably change again in the next run so who knows what it will show next
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Disappointing met office warning if you live in S / SW Wales. Still time for it to improve though as it's still 3 days away!
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And the trusty ICON still has our backs! Saturday is still on
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ECM looks like this: .
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UKV this morning for Saturday: .
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Well it's supposed to become the next version of the main GFS at some point. It's difficult to judge it's performance because it doesn't have an ensemble suite like the main GFS though
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The GFS Parallel gives some rather impressive totals for the weekend tonight!
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Next UKV Extended is tomorrow morning, but this evening's one was similar to the GFS and ICON for Saturday
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Thank goodness for the ICON!
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UKV is bone dry Thursday/Friday. Has this for Saturday, followed by rain on Sunday .
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ECM is dire, not worth posting. 1-2cm widely on Saturday, rain on Sunday and game over
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ICON for Saturday, keep your fingers and toes crossed: .
