mattrout92

It's mad how upset they get over one run, it's supposed to be the model discussion thread, not the toy throwing thread. Several other models recently have shown them to have 20cm+ in the South East, but they seem to forget about those and take each run as gospel! At this stage it's all about trends

What we want is that low in the Atlantic just to the South of Greenland to slide into the South of the UK. On this run it slides a bit too far South into the Bay of Biscay / France, but it wouldn't take much to get an some decent snowfall out of it! Still, by the end of the run, pretty much all of Wales is under snowcover:

Cross Model Agreement for an Easterly flow this weekend as things stand, the GEM even has a slider event early next week leaving the whole of the UK covered in snow. This would do nicely!

Crazy isn't it? The general trend from all the models is positive from next weekend, the odds look in our favour for a cold Easterly flow to set up in the next fortnight, and yet some in there are acting as though we are in a repeat of last winter. This thread is much more friendly than the Model thread I think

Shame this wasn't overnight, but I'm not complaining! We have stuck with our centimetre or so here, but it's starting to turn sleety. Temps 0.8C and Dewpoint now above freezing at 0.2C. This is turning into a much better winter than recent ones!

Still going here, moderate snowfall at the moment. I reckon we have just over a centimetre here in places - and I think we still have another 2 or 3 more hours to come, but maybe not as heavy. Today has been a lovely surprise for sure!

Temperature has fallen as expected with dew points on the rise. Temp 0.0C and dewpoint -0.6C - still heavy snow

A good dusting here, still falling heavily

Heavy here now, settling on the roofs, cars and grass!

Moderate snowfall here now, but no covering at the moment. I think temperatures are slightly too high at the moment around 1C, this is forecast to drop in the next hour, so fingers crossed

Temperature 1.1C, dewpoint -1.3C here. Light snow for about 20 minutes but not intense of enough to settle yet

Just got back from walking the dogs, and there is small flakes blowing in the breeze

If I would guess, I reckon 1-3cm widely (away from coasts) and 5cm on ground above 200m possibly. Have to wait and see though

Have a look at this for a complete and utter U-Turn

Game on here too!

UKV 18Z is finally on board for tomorrow, it has backtracked towards other models:

It's still a little uncertain, but it looks like there may some wet snow tomorrow but nothing significant. Probably a centimetre or two in lucky spots

UKV has moved very slightly towards the ECM / Harmonie for tomorrow, and brings a few light sleet / snow showers inland. Probably wouldn't lead to any accumulations though

Harmonie Snow Depths for tomorrow:

This is an idea of what the snow depths may look like if the ECM is correct for tomorrow: A dusting for a good chunk of South Wales

Would love the ECM to be right about tomorrow: It actually did well last week! UKV disagrees Fingers crossed it's wrong

This is the latest UKV for the weekend, Sunday is just a cold cloudy day with the front failing to make any progress in land

ECM estimated snow depths for Saturday: and Sunday:

I'm not expecting much in South Wales over the next few days unless you live over 200m, maybe some sleet or wet snow at times but not amounting to very much. What is interesting is that there's a growing confidence as we go into the second week of February we could see High Pressure build to the North allowing a cold North Easterly/ Easterly flow to set up. Wales doesn't tend to do great in terms of snow out of Easterly periods like this at first, but as we proved in 2018, if we can get some proper cold in place over a period of a week or so, and you then get a disturbance move in from the South West (just like Storm Emma in 2018) which bumps into the cold air, we can end up with some really significant, non marginal snow here.

UKV's take on things - Saturday: Sunday: Tuesday: At the moment Tuesday looking the best bet for widespread snowfall