mattrout92
-
Posts
205 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by mattrout92
-
GEM Stalls the front on Thursday and gives hours of snow to South and West Wales .
-
Good GEM so far, this is the snow depths by Wednesday, before the Atlantic even tries to fightback
-
GEM also goes for a snowy breakdown next week, remember don't just take the GFS model as gospel. It is notably poor at dealing with cold / Easterlies and much prefers it when we are in a normal westerly regime.
-
Also it shows this for Sunday, and don't forget the ECM outperformed almost all other models last weekend
-
There is still a snowy breakdown on the ECM this morning for Thursday / Friday, all hope is not lost! This weekend was never going to be the main event anyway
-
Sadly I wasn't born until 10 years afterwards in 1992
-
ECM 12Z looks like this, but like I said earlier I don't think it's correct. I would be surprised if the low doesn't slide and then stall against the cold air bringing much more snow
-
ECM is too progressive this evening, I think it'll correct to something more favourable closer to the time. When you get cold like this the models struggle to resolve the fightback from the Atlantic and it usually gets delayed as time goes on
-
Yeah apologies - that was this mornings run, and wrong Sunday
-
EDIT: deleted wrong Sunday
-
Still over 48 hours away so plenty of time for it to trend Westwards
-
I'm not convinced about seeing much snow this weekend, my gut feeling is 1-3cm in Eastern areas of Wales, but it depends where the troughs form and will probably be a nowcast event on the radar. It's Wednesday onwards when it gets interesting, I believe there is a good chance of 10cm+ very widely, possibly much more, but it's still 6 days away so a lot of chopping and changing before then!
-
Some lovely totals on the GFS next week (Thursday) too: the GEM also looking good
-
That ECM is an absolute dream for Wales. Low pressure after low pressure trying to push away the cold air to the North/East with Wales acting as the perfect battleground, just goes to show what could happen but it is an extreme option for sure.
-
That would be perfect!
-
18Z GFS has Thursday next week as a snowy breakdown again for us, but not as good as ECM/GEM and is more marginal on the coast
-
So the ECM actually develops a shallow feature on Saturday which brings a covering quite widely across Wales by Sunday morning: (note the snow depths are in inches not centimetres) Then later on a front moves in from the South West overnight Wednesday into Thursday bringing more significant snowfall as it bumps into the very cold air.
-
Another snowy GEM
-
This video gives a really good idea of what is happening over the next 10 days, and is far better than the BBC graphics in my opinion. Well worth a watch, and discusses what could happen with the lows that approach from the South West next week
-
Yep, the ECM, GEM and GFS all tried this morning with varying amounts of snow. GEM was probably the best of the bunch with around 3-10cm quite widely across the whole of Wales on Thursday
-
I'm not convinced the snow will make it this far West this weekend, maybe a few light flurries in the far East of Wales. We will be looking out to the Atlantic to hopefully see systems pushing in from the South West and bumping into the cold air to produce snowfall for us, and I think that is most likely to happen between Tuesday and Friday next week.
-
The hashed lines represents snowfall , and the unhashed blocks are rainfall ? The colours represent the amount of precipitation falling. A general rule of thumb is 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow, but this is not always accurate
-
It seems all routes lead to snow for us in Wales. I've a very good feeling about next week
-
Yep, I'll take the ECM tonight please.
-
I like the look of this for the UKMO on Monday, would imagine it would bring in some snow from the South West, with some nice cold uppers to go with it
