That ECM
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Posts posted by That ECM
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Met are suggesting heavy snow at 3.00 in Bournemouth.
and then light snow showers until 8.00.
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Cut off high? No, like the run though.
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1 minute ago, IDO said:
No complaints from me.
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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Surely ECM cannot go wrong from here!
Let’s hope not.
like to see a continuation in 12z’s for me T120ish is key. Like to get that down to T72. Right, off to work, have good day.
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4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
Ecm could go all the way through here!
Maybe, I’m just happy that at T120 it’s very similar to ukmo.
And at T144 I’m very happy. Do what it likes from there.
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T72 and yesterday’s T96 quite a difference over Greenland. T96 and T120. I would say it looks better, now watch it go Pete.
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Clearly some very good output this morning, ukmo T168 is wonderful.
The two below are FI means one from last evening and this morning. Maybe something or nothing and interested in thoughts. Looks to me that most of the pv isn’t over America and directly north there is a gap. Resulting in potential for the continuation of blocking?
Might just be I’m seeing what I want to see tbh also.
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2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
So the threat of snow showers tomorrow is the South..chiefly the southeast corner..?
Maidstone area would be my shout to see as much as most.
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Improved I would say.
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7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
That’s all very well but it also has to be said in context. He doesn’t mean poor as in it’s an end to the cold spell and a return to above average temperatures he means it’s poorer than a previous set with more runs trending milder. M4cast is an experienced member I’m sure he wouldn’t look at those ensembles and means and denote them being “poor” for cold weather as it’s the opposite. I think for newbies this is important. Thanks
You guys could just ask him?
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T168 all 4. The spread on the bottom obviously relates to the gfs but it could relate to these. As has been pointed out by others, the area where the models are quite different are in the area which has poor observation.
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Now where on earth have you been? We’ve been worried sick.
now sort Greenland and that low and stop messing about.
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1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:
They look pretty much identical?
Mostly but not the low. Anyway ecm is miles better so mikes call was a good one.
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Just now, swfc said:
Do you mean nw
No ne.
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Look for pressure rises to the ne Tamara suggested.
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Just been outside and it’s freezing, anyone see a breakdown yet?
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And gfs misses.
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Icon esk
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Extended extended says. No idea.
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8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Knees are stable and not jerking profusely .....i believe
Knees are rock solid and resting on a ramp.
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4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:
We've already had upgrades in the short term which a lot of people are not talking about
-12 uppers moving across the south east, weather warning for snow and it's already sleeting now! - Go back a week and people were expecting hardly anything because the high was too high
I agree but it is for ice.
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
Day 9.5 has mean uppers -10 to -7 north to south with -8 as far as s midlands
that’s colder than all 4 previous runs
And let’s be honest, who expected that?
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
What a run. JFF Obviously.