That ECM
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Posts posted by That ECM
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Much better this morning, decent length of spell - great that its all amber & green, usually shortwave and green don't go together, usually i think of red.
I find these two fascinating as it shows to me the cold is winning. Look at the low differences in 12 hours. I’m not suggesting ukmo has it nailed by the way.
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12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
We can start analysing the path now.
Historically these features are picked up fairly accurately at lengthy timescales.
Agree you can start analysing. The Day 8 ish track of a low? I think we are long way from any accuracy. How long is lengthy timescales for you?
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Gem and icon say why are people guessing the track of day 8 low? Could be Paris.
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Well that doesn’t show disruptive snow.
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Well that went wrong quick. T132 it looked better to me and then……
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Much better at t132.
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Bulge hunting time. T132 earlier. Let’s see.
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5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
It has to be said that the met are very bullish about heights to the north west holding on. Especially when there is no sign of this on any of the models for between the 24th and 6th of February. Are they thinking when the cold sets in it will be harder to shift than the models are letting out? It wouldn’t be the last time this happened
No, they read @Tamarapost and went with the shuffling high.
The lady has been awesome. 
shuffling high or not. Although she has made me start to look and read what she talks about and often my head hurts.
When I joined net weather many years ago I didn’t post in here for a few years until I had an idea of the models. Going to be a while before I reference what she uses but hey the journey has started.
5 minutes ago, Derecho said:The more experienced people in here will remember January 2013 when it was dragged kicking and screaming into a cold spell at T48. That was fun!
And the ecm called it first.
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Only one cluster days 5 to 7 but it’s the control (effectively the eps say that the op is the best representation of the suite days 5 to 7)
Which would suggest the high would be in a decent position but nothing to give us the details many crave. Met suggest less precipitation in the longer outlook so possible for the high to drift a little south bringing the possibility of ne winds.
I know I’m going to far ahead but could be the way to have extended cold.
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Get past T144 then this will become clearer.
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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:
Is that the blizzard of the century heading in at 216
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Maybe but look at the gap.
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Better than ukmo
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Just now, northwestsnow said:
Oh I'm not sure about 120 EC..
I hope it doesn't go TU
It’s ok at T120
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4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:I have absolutely no idea what any of that means
I will translate. He doesn’t see the point at looking at perception chart at that time when the nhp from different models is so different.
I’m fluent in tight isobar.
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6 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:
Unfortunately it would phase with the ESB trough(red arrow),so not that good really,we need clean seperation of these two for height's to sustain the pattern.
Or to happen a bit slower with everything a little further south and therefore have the high in a good place for lows to slide under? Similar to ecm this morning.
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Just now, Ice Day said:
I'd agree. It's a very disappointing evolution between 144 - 168. Not what I expected at all really.
Unfortunately I did but hoped not.
what I would say is it’s at T168 and no disaster. Hopefully ecm is cleaner. Loooooooooong way to go on this I feel.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
T144. Micro analysis beyond is fi