[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, TillyS said:

If when we watch the models we started with a presumption of doubt we’d be more accurate. The question: what can go wrong probably will is about right for UK winter weather. 19 times out of 20 these days any snowy set up showing on the models out past T168 will not happen.

Currently in the 1 in 20 right now then. 
 

is the detail as was suggested past T168? No. Is this a snowy set up that was shown prior to T168? Yep.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

jeez this is going to be close if the latest fax is near the mark.  T72 still more than enough time for changes good and bad.  It has moved a little further north. Met now have guernsey with heavy rain. Yesterday they had 10% chance of rain.

Doh.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Just now, festivalking said:

Yep all models have moved that low north not all hit the coastline but a trend.

Ha ha after I said no chance yesterday. The weather makes mugs of us all.

I had it at 10% at the most. I’m not sure if I’d prefer miles south and little hope or as is shown now. The fax charts are going to be intriguing.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

jeez this is going to be close if the latest fax is near the mark.  T72 still more than enough time for changes good and bad.  It has moved a little further north. Met now have guernsey with heavy rain. Yesterday they had 10% chance of rain.

[Model discussion highlights]

Not what most would wish but a 20 degree swing in 850’s  

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012096

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Correct there is no indication of anything cold in the next couple of weeks bar the odd polar maritime spell. 

Next 5 days?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Not what most would wish but a 20 degree swing in 850’s  

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

7 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Whatever the weather brings, hope all enjoy the rest of the season

Would suggest you are done for this season. If so, then thank you for all you input. Very much appreciated by many I’m sure.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

12 minutes ago, TillyS said:

 

The models don’t show evidence at present that the milder ‘spell’ will be short lived. There is no evidence of northern blocking in the three main models. Nor is there evidence at the moment for the so-called SSW having impact on UK weather to the end of their runs.

It will, indeed, be very cold this week.

Then it will be very mild, and not just for a short spell.

At least that’s what the models say, rather than what we may hope for. Cold, sometimes very cold, until Friday, then distinctly mild, wet, windy and Atlantic dominated, with high pressure to the south of the UK.

Evidence is more reliable  

20th still cold. 
 

so the reliable evidence you are relying on is the gfs. We can only see t48 more on ukmo and another T120 on ecm. 
 

The milder spell not being short lived can only be demonstrated via gfs. The various background tools used are equal in evidence as any gfs run. 
 

It might be worth looking at all evidence and then your statement of “Evidence is more reliable”  would be more reliable.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Round 2? - plenty of runs yet for this to upgrade.

Be interesting to see gefs to see if there’s hints. 
 

There was a danger I’d have to interact more with the wife thanks gfs.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Gfs fi has us chasing an arctic ridge again - lucky they can be relied upon! 

Got a chase something.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Not a bad fi.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Can you add comment ?

Is the 2nd chart more recent ?

Time stamps looked blurred 

 

 

Most recent op and mean.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Harveyslugger said:

 

I’m guessing you are asking what’s it like for Pembrokeshire?
 

There’s good potential buddy.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Are the EC ENS delayed? Not on meteociel yet!! 

Ecm mean.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

For those further north I’d be looking at these with some interest.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

23 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The GFS MEAN has snow to the midlands on Wed, this is mental. I think more moves north are on the cards now 

 

A few examples, and there are plenty more 

I hope you are right. For balance, ecm and met current thinking. All subject to change of course.  The north south swings should start to reduce through the day but this could go to the wire if ecm trends further north this evening. Current fax charts have it south of us imo. 
 

As per Kasim my percentage would be 10/90 on hitting. I wouldn’t trust gfs to hand tickets out on a bus.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Golden shot (if you’re old enough) is a little more north on this run from previous ecm run. 
 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Control gfs. 
 

Hope this in the right discussion forum.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

T168 neither without interest. Please not gfs.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Gefs mean

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

This ain't a bad 144hr by UKMO..pv not rampant and some decent Ural Heights in there for good measure..I've a feeling there's more miles to run in this saga just yet!

I think the cold is going but I would like this to be near the mark. Far less wind and rain than what gfs is showing.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

It’s the hope that kills you.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

19 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Icon 12z is massively different on this run over the Arctic.  Interesting. 

Not Pembrokeshire

@Tamara  sorry you’re not going to win my post of the day award. This will win whatever is written.