[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Different outcome on GFS 12z, but the same big picture point, by the end of the run, the trop vortex has vacated Canada/Greenland and moved to the half of the hemisphere to our east.  

I just think we are now picking up on a theme, which will leave the door open to height rises in the Atlantic towards Greenland into February.  

Yes, this could be as long a chase as the one just gone.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Is there really gonna be enough forcing on this pattern to get the Griceland now?, starting to have my doubts now about anything before 10th-15th feb, - scandi dead in the water before at least 7th now.

Yes, there are slow burners and slow burners but I’m not sure this burner is even lit.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

T192 gfs 

 

nothing much of interest, just thought after 2 hours someone should post.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Indeed, my worry is that while some expected amplification will happen as predicted, it (as often) won’t be sufficient to deliver a proper UK cold spell, the MJO declining into the COD (as it is prone to do when it gets anywhere near the helpful phases in my experience) looks a big risk. 

Then we end up with one of the EPS clusters that has high pressure in the vicinity of the UK, not farther north.  Although in that instance, a retrogression scenario is possible.  I would like to see a much stronger signal back on the ECM 46 for February, it being watered down recently is concerning.  But at least the raging zonal spell will be short lived, and then we are back in the game…

Certainly an option/outcome.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

T168 and T192 spread with gefs. 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

T168 all 4. Overall nhp similar with some differences as you would expect at this time. 
 

It’s what happens beyond that’s of interest. As yet that’s still unsure. You can make a case for “good” or “bad” from a cold pov. Truth is we just don’t know but there’s chances.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Firstly it beats wind and rain in my book. 
 

secondly, I’d like to get close to this and see what evolves.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Just now, Troubleatmill said:

I think it's safe to say the GEFS are buying into the whole Scandinavian high possibility 

Yep. Control going for it.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Control 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, if it wasn’t for the fact that we’re expecting this from the GSDM analyses and background signals, we wouldn’t give the odd run showing it at day 10 the time of day…but as it is…

T 168 you would choose ukmo over gfs at that point and gfs was good. Also  the met

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Interesting.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

10 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Did not expect to see that this morning! More of that please.  Would really love to see a flip to something more cold favourable in the models around this time. I don’t expect that to happen but at the same time I do have a feeling something is afoot. It would be great if we didn’t have to wait long. Maybe we’ll see a reverse of the normal and see the models finally pick out a rapid shift in the atmosphere. The cold is running out across America so perhaps the Jet will lose its steam soon. All I know is I’m sick of typing the word “telecommunications”. Bring on the flip!!!

Gem is interesting. What it does between 26th and 28th I’m not sure ive seen happen before in reality. Others may well be able to recall a time when it did.

other than another move away from a flat pattern there’s still much inconsistency. Fascinating.

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but those build of heights can migrate from the south and build over scandy..The gfs has hinted at this for half a dozen runs now..is it out of the question? Well check the met update to see greater chance if estly winds and there's your answer. For someone to come on here and start saying it's not scientifically possible is tripe..its not scientifically possible to say there a 20% chance of this then an hour later a 30% or back to 15% of this that and the other scenarios!

Like I said numerous runs toy with the idea of a build of heights through into scandy and that's a positive as we all know how savvy gfs is with detecting early signals.. let's see if ecm and gem towards backend of week or weekend start going down this route also.

While gfs throws nhp like this I’ll remain very interested. Other than not the normal nhp it’s difficult to see a pattern yet. 
 

So the ones punting Bartlett let them, I’ll sit and wait and just scroll past, some enjoy having a contrarian style for the attention it affords them..

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well I've done that much chasing it's definitely time to take a step back for now ..

As Arnie once said ,I'll be back !!

EC day 9 says it might be a while !

I think it’s worth keeping a watch on gfs and later frames of ecm to see if there is some consistency in direction of output.  I see some are saying the end of the month is unlikely to change to cold I assume on the back of this mornings op runs? 
 

It’s going to be awhile because next week general theme is agreed on. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

So close to something special for southern areas. Still a chance if a few flurries looking at UKV. For most this has been an other snowless cold spell. Let’s hope feb delivers at least 1 measurable snowfall for all 

Wouldn’t be surprised to see some in the south west with a bit of elevation get some snow.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

The Mecca of football

Had Luton won original game they would now be in Dubai but going tomorrow now. Bet they were chuffed to be at the Mecca.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Nice photo. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It was a fabulous spell and it involved nearly all the British isles! The east and south east and Scotland especially hit hard with showers from the North Sea and a normally barren south west and south wales got the mother of all channel lows giving 40-50cms in some parts. My girlfriend at the time from Abergavenny measured 49cms! I was jealous as I was back in Yorkshire at the time!

Think I would have visited.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The question is how do you get to a high lat block from where we are now.

I agree with this.  I think what we need to ask ourselves is, given the models were showing a rampant zonal pattern indefinitely, what is the first sign on the models likely to be - if the ultimate destination is a high lat block in Scandi, the first thing we will see is a mid lat block pushing north into the UK, pushed up by WAA from the vortex.  If the vortex doesn’t relent, that should continue and drive the high to our NE - where exactly we don’t know, but a Scandi high looks a reasonable aspiration from there.

It’s been fascinating output viewing and this is from someone who has come as close to a channel runner in a long time.

 

However, bring on the next chase and if luck goes against us then I’d rather have a chance than look at flat pattern for months.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

12 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Any Scandi heights likely to retrogress to Greenland by month end and continuing into March.

Seasonals rock solid consistent on Greenland blocking into the first month of spring.

Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a chance of some milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.
 

I don’t disagree with you but this made me scratch my head. I was thinking that high doesn’t get north or goes to far ne allowing pv to have an influence in north?.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I understand why some can’t be bothered with another chase, stick with ukmo out to T120. 
 

some of us enjoy theme/cold hunting.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

The GFS is evil!! how can it keep doing this to us?  another easterly to chase in FI, I'm sure the devil programmes their computers

Control 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Ukmo says I’m going to be ignored for 10 days at least again.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Love a hint.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

For those who don’t want a long chase for cold stick with first chart. For those that do want to hunt for hints then the second chart will be of interest.