[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone noticed anything about the GEFS?

Depends on the time you are looking at. What interested me was at T 168 there’s a number that reflect this which is more like ukmo and less like the op.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

T120 plus is fi for details has always been a good place to be. Highlighted even more so when disruptive snow is possible at T168. 
 

Next weekend is T192 and we have these two so far this morning at T168.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Haven’t read through last 8 pages. Looks like low misses to the south. What that means later who knows as ukmo and gfs are still different.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ec 12z plots-spag… mustard upto the 22nd.. after that pick your pert/ member??!!…    A cold spell is coming… the jackpot question- still remains, how notable.. n, how prolonged…    Keep watching.

I wish you wrote the met extended.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

It is hard to say things in a way everybody understands and makes the right conclusions. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

EC46 shows a return of a block at the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean. 

 

A high over the uk that drifts nw. How much experience have we had at watching that.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The track off the low nowhere near sorted imo.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Deep cold bang on cue on “that day”!

Boom!

Old news.

we need the date of the next one.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Why I love this forum.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Biggin said:

I shoulda said he was wrong ..

Nah

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

19 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T168 ukmo will be interesting. 

It was then.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

T168 ukmo will be interesting. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

So we’re really all now freaking out because some random dude said to @MATTWOLVES 3 on Twitter that the met office are going to downgrade a forecast for over a weeks time? Oh okay then 

There has been a trend within various enes gefs etc for the 850’s to rise end of next week. 
 

where we go from there? Who knows but there’s enough to say it maybe cold again.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Still alot of cold support folks.

I know I can look them up but I enjoy you posting these. can I ask you include somewhere like Plymouth and Aberdeen please?  TIA don’t worry about Bournemouth I look at them hourly.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Here's yesterdays 12z run and todays 00z run.

Thank you. So not only south but also more along the channel.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The low goes south, the south stays cold but we miss out on a potentially significant snowfall event. The 00z spaghetti frontal plot shows a substantial shift south on the last two runs but with still a large amount of spread across France & the English channel, the exact track of this low still hasn't been resolved within the modelling.

Going forward I suspect models are being too progressive with removing the cold. Wedges will be key for cold remaining in situ across the UK and there's certainly some support within the ensembles for cold weather to hang on, more so across northern counties. 

A very difficult and volatile forecasting period coming up. Don't be surprised to see modelling little by little extending the cold.. 

how far south has the gold line moved in 24/48 hours please?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I see no point in worrying about fi when T168 is this.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, JimBob said:

Every time I post anything in the model thread that could be loosely considered pro mild it gets hidden or moved!  Crazy forum that one! 

I responded to your post in there, didn’t realise yours had been removed. I asked what you were looking at? Hope it didn’t come over as rude, certainly not intended to be so. I think if you had added charts backing up what you were saying it would have stayed.

 

As I say I wasn’t being rude I was interested in why you thought what you thought.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

Is that forecast generated from the UKMO - or some sort of combination? 
 

5 degrees and rain is just wonderful. Just what’s needed

No idea tbh.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Just correct a little to the south please.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

For 8 days of very cold weather that is very poor snow coverage.

It’s intriguing. For example and @Ali1977  that shows no coverage for stow on the wold yet met are suggesting light snow for 6 hours on Wednesday evening. Now that is very likely to change. The point for me is that snow coverage and snow fall suggestions is not important at this time.

look at Kent just gone.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, saintkip said:

What he means is fry for him, looks good for us

I don’t hold much faith in the chart or any suggested precipitation chart at that range tbh but I also don’t see ecm run out to T240 as as dry as the Sahara. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

14 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Dry as a Sahara run for most of UK.

I guess you are not believing in this?

 This has snow in Scotland and Northern Ireland basically everywhere. South of the m4 basically everywhere and down the north west.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

My morning summary is a bit of a ramp. Not specific to any regional area in general pattern. Up to T144 I would suggest ecm sits in the middle of the big 3. Where you would sit if looking without bias. 
 

ecm turned out ok.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I think that would be fine in a slider scenario even down south , it’s a nice shape heading in from the SW so if it hits it’ll likely be snow 

 

you may be the only one that gets it on this run

ECM would be great for many. As feb explained.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, JimBob said:

Looking like a very short lived or even non existent career cold snap for the south now. 

What you looking at?