stodge

Afternoon all Plenty of people salivating at the prospect of some warm, sunny weather which is understandable after a long winter and one of the slowest starts to spring I can remember. From some of the talk, it seems however we will miss spring and go straight to summer. Not much sign of spring, it has to be said, in my part of the world this week. Never mind, let's see where we may be on St George's Day, Monday April 23rd and let's kick off with what seems to be everybody's favourite model at the moment for some reason, the ECM, the 00Z at T+240: Not hard to see why this should be so popular. ECM has been the most bullish about a short-lived warm spell for some day and is now bringing back renewed HP from the SW so fine and dry weather for most though perhaps not quite as warm as it's due to be next midweek with the air coming off the Atlantic but nonetheless very pleasant. The far NW still at risk from Atlantic systems and some drizzle perhaps and note the LP over North Africa helping to prop up the new HP push. GEM 00Z at T+240: A rather different evolution. By this time next midweek's HP has declined to the SE but while there's a weak LP over Biscay winds are light over the British Isles in a col. There's a weak ridge pushing north and a sense that heights could well be developing to the north of the British Isles with the Atlantic moribund but we'll see. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Closer to ECM than GEM but with a different evolution again. Heights to the east eventually break down as a deep LP comes in to northern Scandinavia. This enables a height rise over the British Isles but the trough is still over Iberia so the HP is inflated to the north. Further into FI, Atlantic LP comes back into control and the run ends quite unsettled and much cooler with a NW'ly flow. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: More like the morning's ECM with a renewed push of HP from the Azores. Further into FI and the pattern of heights to the north and the trough to the south re-asserts so a messy evolution with occasional E'ly interludes but always more unsettled to the south. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: Something very different. Heights to the NW, a large tough over Scandinavia and a slack N'ly driving out the warmer air and returning colder conditions for all. Further into FI and a NE'ly interlude before a new LP develops near Iceland and disrupts SE over the British Isles. The 06Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 In my view, the Control solution has far more support than the OP and indeed fans of warmth should look at P19 if they want to choke on their lunch. Others raise heights to the NE and offer a NE'ly flow while the OP's desire to remove heights to the south of the British Isles isn't widely supported in the ENS at this time. The path beyond is much less certain but northern blocking is well represented as well as the tough sitting over the British Isles with warm, settled conditions in the minority. To conclude, a fine and warm snap lasting 2-3 days next week looks certain but the breakdown of the HP to the east and what follows is far from clear. Fans of warmth will draw heart from ECM and the GFS 06Z OP while GEM and GFS 00Z both pointed to an alternative which kept LP to the south and seemed to suggest new heights to the north. The GFS 06Z Control has thrown a spanner in the works with an evolution which is not without support in the ENS and raises heights to the NW. An intriguing evolution beyond the warmth of next week and as we often see at this time of year, with a generally moribund Atlantic, the position and orientation of HP becomes of more significance.

Morning all Continued excitement at the prospect of two or three days of very warm weather next week and certainly 21-22c next Thursday will be much higher than the 12c currently on offer. Let's see where the end of next week finds us so today the medium term takes us to Sunday April 22nd. Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: The orientation of heights changes from the east to the SW of the British Isles but it remains fine for many albeit probably a shade cooler with air sourced off the Atlantic. It's likely northern and western areas will turn more unsettled as the LP approaches. GEM 00Z at T+240: The principal difference between GEM and ECM is ECM removes the trough to the south of the British Isles while GEM keeps it. The presence of the trough means heights are pushed further north so there is a light residual E'ly across southern areas while northern and north western parts keep fine conditions with little or no Atlantic influence. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: GFS breaks down the warm spell slightly more slowly but slightly more completely with LP spreading up from the SW to cover the British Isles bringing in rain or showers for many by this time. No sign of an Azores ridge at this time but a strong ridge holds around Greenland and this dominates the weather into FI as the trough drops into Scandinavia and across the British Isles bringing much colder and more unsettled conditions for all. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: A cooler NE'ly flow as HP has retrogressed toward Greenland but still fine for most. Further into FI heights remain to the North or North West and in time the wind becomes more N'ly introducing much cooler air. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: HP to the NW and keeping things settled for most. Heights remain close to or to the NW of the British isles further into FI but with signs of a more N'ly incursion later. The 06Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Broadly anticyclonic though the position and orientation of the HP far from resolved though the majority keeping the centre to the north of the British Isles. Further into FI a signal for the heights to move more to the NW and the trough to drop into Scandinavia so much cooler conditions with a N'ly component to the sourced air flow. In conclusion, if you want spring/summer to continue, ECM is the form horse as it looks to rebuild heights from the south. GEM goes a similar route but keeps residual LP to the south so tempering things a bit but if you want something else, head for GFS. The 00Z OP is a real slap in the face for warm fans and while the 06Z keeps things settled for longer, the signal for a change to a colder more unsettled outlook with heights retreating NW and the trough dropping into Scandinavia is clear but far from certain at this time.

Afternoon all Lots of people getting excited about next week's brief warm up which is understandable after the long winter we've experienced. However, the weather doesn't care what we want or don't want and goes on its merry way. Today I'll take the medium term analysis out to Saturday April 21st and start as always with ECM 00Z OP for T+240: The evolution is different to yesterday's 00Z and more closely resembles the GFS 00Z from yesterday. The HP is basically an extension of HP over western Russia which shifts west as the Atlantic LP stalls but the warm snap isn't going to last as the HP quickly declines South or South East and a new trough develops to the SW of the British Isles developing into LP and frontal rain coming NE. The SE is likely to see only light rain but Ireland would get more noticeable rain. GEM 00Z at T+240: Something different from GEM as pressure rises NE from the Azores and the trough shifts north so a generally fine and dry prospect but with the wind shifting from the SE to a west or NW'ly temperatures would ease back from their midweek highs. The far NW would see rain or drizzle from Atlantic systems. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Different again. The Scandinavian HP which was at one point a large and intense HP is declining but in situ so the SE'ly flow across the British Isles remains but the LP is now well into south western areas bringing rain and heavy showers to an increasing area while the north and east hangs on to something drier. Further into FI and the evolution remains messy but with heights to the west and later the north west it's a drier but cooler prospect. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: Well now, is that a retrogressing HP I see ? It's an interesting new development which I've not seen to now. The ridge keeps northern and eastern areas largely fine and warm but the LP is approaching the SW hinting at something less settled in terms of showers. Further into FI heights remain dominant to the north with the air flow over the British Isles ranging from a cool NE'ly to a warmer E'ly as we approach the end of the month. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: Heights rising to the NW and more of an ENE'ly flow as pressure drops over Scandinavia. The LP is still well to the SW over NW Spain so the weather remains fair for most away from the east coast. Further into FI and signs of a return of Atlantic influence as LP develops to the west of Iceland and promotes a broad SW'ly flow over the British Isles. The 06Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Plenty of warmth and/or northern blocking. The orientation and position of the HP varies considerably across the suite and has a huge impact on the air flow reaching the British Isles (don't look at P6 if you're a warmie). I'd say more uncertainty than the past couple of days and the eventual "breakdown" of the midweek warm snap still hard to call with retrogression a clear option based on the OP. Further into FI and the clusters are heading down two distinct routes - one favours a return of Atlantic influence while the other keeps northern blocking but more toward Greenland with a trough either over Scandinavia or closet to the British isles with a risk of a cold N'ly or NE'ly outbreak toward the end of the month. In summary, next week's 2-3 day warm snap will be welcome by many but it doesn't look as though it will hold until the weekend. As the HP declines, LP encroaches from the SW bringing an increased risk of rain or showers from the SW. From there, the Atlantic might return or blocking could continue with more of an emphasis on Greenland or the NW in general which opens the door to something colder (potentially) but we are a long way from resolution on that as you'd expect.

Morning all Plenty of signs for something drier and much warmer next week though for now the painfully slow transition from winter to spring continues in lowland East London. This morning the medium term analysis takes us up to Friday April 20th: Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: The trough close to or over the south of the British Isles dominates the rest of this week but next week an LP stalling and deepening to the west forces heights in front of and to the NE over the British Isles which becomes a new centre of HP over Denmark but it's not going to last according to ECM as the above chart shows the HP declining as a new LP developing to the west of the British Isles moves in. The trough is negatively tilted so will it dive SE or will it brush through Ireland ? Fine and warm weather for much of the east and south under a SE'ly flow but signs of more unsettled conditions coming into Ireland. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: Something very different from GEM this morning. Heights develop not to the NE but to the SE over Europe which is something we've not seen for a fair while. The flow is still a mild or warm SW'ly with the best weather for southern and eastern parts but the HP though broad is quite shallow while the LP is stationery to the west of Ireland so you'd think more unsettled the further west you are. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: After being on its own yesterday, GFS joins the ECM party with HP to the NE but the evolution couldn't be more different. ECM inflates the HP from the Azores with heights from the SW while GFS brings heights westward from Russia into Scandinavia. The HP starts sinking south from central Scandinavia to Denmark and tilts to orient NW-SE and this allows energy from the Atlantic to start to edge SE into south western parts of the British Isles so while it's a warm and increasingly breezy and fine picture for many the south west will start to see increasingly unsettled conditions with showers. Further into FI the trough eventually settles SE just to the south of the British Isles with heights to the north but at the very edge of FI the flow shifts more SE and much colder air starts to encroach from Scandinavia. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: The Scandinavian HP starting to decline but the Atlantic energy split both north and south. The British Isles remains warm and fine under a benign SE'ly flow. Further into FI that doesn't last and it turns very much colder as heights build from the NW and a NE'ly flow sets up over the British Isles. A real temperature contrast would be on offer if this verified. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Strong agreement on heights to the east or NE of the British Isles and a warm SE'ly flow. Some divergence over the exact position and orientation of the HP which is to be expected this far out but the overarching message is the same. Further into FI and all I'll say is fans of cold may yet have one last shot with plenty of Members showing heights to the NW and a NE or a variant of that setting up. We'll see.

Late morning all A damp and disappointing start to the week in London but some signs yesterday of a hint of something better around or just after mid-month. This morning takes us to Thursday April 19th and we kick off as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: A strongly anticyclonic with plenty of dry and warm weather from an HP centred over Denmark. The easterly this week fades by Friday but the Atlantic disrupts north and south as the LP approaches western Europe with heights rising to the east and LP deflected north and south. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: Similar to the ECM and the evolution not too different. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: A very different evolution with persistent heights east from Greenland preventing the Atlantic KLP disrupting north so the whole LP moves SE keeping the weather unsettled especially over southern and western parts. Further into FI and the LP persists close to the British Isles even as the Azores HP tries to ridge in from the SW. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: A more definite ridge south from heights well to the north of the British Isles means a light ESE'ly for most and decent weather with the LP kept well to the SW. Further into FI and a brief flirtation with warmth is replaced by cooler conditions as heights end up to the NE with LP to the SW and SE meaning a broadly northerly flow over the British Isles but the coldest air always well to the east. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: More akin to the GEM and ECM than the OP and a more defined SE'ly flow. Further into FI as the LP approaches from the south, the flow shifts more east and eventually north east as the HP retrogresses to Greenland. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 A very strong signal for heights to the east or north east of the British Isles with OP and Control not far apart and leading the majority cluster. One or two Members have the LP a little closer but the net effect t is more wind from the SE rather than anything else. Further on and plenty of uncertainty as you'd expect but with no strong signal for any particular pattern. In summary, plenty of agreement this morning on heights building to the east or north east next week. Whether these develop from a disrupting LP to the west or from Greenland is less clear but the net effect is the same. HP to the east brings SE'ly winds so warmer and drier conditions for all. Southern and South-western areas would still be at risk from rain or showers if the 00Z OP verified. GEM and ECM break up the LP and send energy both north and south while GFS moves everything to the south or south east. Quite possible we'd see 20c from the GFS Control, the GEM or the ECM but the east coast would still be at risk from fog.

Wouldn't it be fun to get that nice blue blob a few hundred miles further west ?

Looking at the GFS 06Z OP illustrates the problem: If the Scandinavian HP moves too far east, the warm plume of air from the SE passes to the east and north east of the British Isles and instead the trough returns to southern areas bringing back a risk of rain or showers and re-enforcing the slack flow off the North Sea.

Morning all No time for the detailed analysis this morning - back tomorrow - but some consistency starting to appear in medium term. The coming week's easterly now looks to be more short-lived than had been envisaged in earlier output but the incursion from the Atlantic also gets watered down and there's a strong signal for a re-emergence of heights to the NE by T+240: GEM 00Z OP: ECM 00Z: GFS 00Z OP: GFS perhaps a shade less progressive than the others. However, persistent as the signal for heights to the NE is, so is the signal for the trough over or just to the south of the British Isles so the Scandinavian HP keeps things fine for the north and west while the south and east are always under threat from rain or showers. Not sure we're going to get the sun-kissed spring nirvana some on here seem anxious to forecast.

To provide some balance, the GFS 12Z OP doesn't really go in for a warm snap or spell. Things start to get more interesting at the very end: Anyone fancy an Arctic blast to end April ?

Do you think the large inland figures could be from convection in the form of showers or storms ? The wind blows on to the east coast and meets the warm air rising off the land forming heavy and possibly thundery showers. I though the far NW of Scotland would do better but as you say the influence of HP and positioning of the trough aren't resolved yet. IF the trough stays close to the south, then more rain is the only call but ease that south and have the HP closer to the north and it would be more settled.

Strange how some only want to comment on one model for some reason but that's their prerogative. Across the model suite, the easterly now seems confirmed: Nothing cold about that but unsettled especially for southern areas with rain or showers likely from the LP in Biscay - could there be a storm or two in that mix ? Maybe as there is some warmer air to the east the moisture could engage - one to note.

Morning all Am I going to be first up on the morning output ? Certainly plenty of interest yesterday with the previously firm-looking easterly for next week starting to be challenged in some of the OP models by a resurgent Atlantic but heights never far away from the NE or NW suggesting the strength and direction of any Atlantic push was far from defined at this time. This morning's medium term analysis takes us to Monday April 16th so just into the second half of the month and we'll start with the ECM 00Z OP at T+240: A messy evolution but the key features are the trough over Europe and heights over Scandinavia. This morning the former is proving more resilient than the latter which is the reverse of yesterday. BY this time the HP has declined SE with a weak residual ridge over Scandinavia linking back SW to a ridge building through the west of the British Isles from the Azores. Southern and Eastern areas are nearer the weak LP over Europe and there is a slack NE'ly in place with a risk of showers for these areas while most of the rest of us enjoy fine conditions. A developing Atlantic LP is moving slowly NE well to the west but it's too early to be sure how that will play. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: A little different from ECM. There's a pattern of heights to the NE and small Atlantic features disrupting SE to the west of the British Isles and ending up over western Europe and by T+240 we have a significant LP centred over northern Italy with the trough aligned back NW across southern Britain bringing plenty of rain or showers for southern and western parts. Further north, the east coast is plagued by an ESE'ly air flow sourced from Turkey so not cold but probably picking up plenty of sea fog crossing the North Sea so the coasts dull but to the western side decent conditions and a good time for that Hebridean break you've always promised yourself. Not quite sure how we break this pattern at this time with the trough lying through the southern parts of Britain. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: GFS throws spring a real curveball this morning to use an American expression by dishing up a cold run. The key differences are the role of Greenland heights rather than Scandinavian heights and the trough extends out into the Atlantic to the south of Britain. Next week looks particularly bracing along the east coast and the theme continues by T+240 albeit with a slacker flow. The 850s aren't bad but nothing very spring like, Further into FI, the air flow gets a more southerly tilt as the Atlantic LP tries to fight its way in against the strong northern blocking. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: We catch the HP in mid retrogression from Scandinavia to Greenland and the air flow is a warmer ESE'ly but rain or showers for southern and western parts close to the European trough. Further into FI and little changes with the Atlantic moribund and northern blocking in charge. Plenty of cold air building to the east and north east so spring still very much on hold. The GEFS 00Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 With the OP and Control leading the way and supported by the Mean, there are no surprises the easterly outlook, after yesterday's wobble, is firmly in charge with the GFS. Northern blocking rules, mainly from Scandinavia or to the north of the British Isles and while there are variations over the orientation of the HP and the trough, the signal for some form of easterly is clear. Moving further on and entering the last third of the month, a strong signal for blocking to transfer to Greenland. That doesn't necessarily mean a cold Arctic blast though if P14 verified we'll all be looking for our thermals. A number of the Members have the LP more or less over the British Isles with the coldest air deflected to the west while others modify the NE flow by having the HP close to the north west coast of Scotland. There is no signal for MLB to the east or for heights to the south. In conclusion, I said "game, set and match" to the easterly earlier in the week but there was a wobble of sorts yesterday but this morning GFS has clearly and unequivocally backed it with northern blocking likely to dominate for much of the month. GEM and ECM are more equivocal - yes, next week looks to be dominated by air from the east or south east but both models have signs of an awakening Atlantic around mid month. To be fair, GEM has a disrupting trough pattern which could simply continue so ECM looks the most positive if you want a break from the easterly but GFS looks to have it locked in for a fortnight. To be fair, easterlies in April aren't unknown and given what has happened this late winter and early spring the likelihood was almost certainly increased. Nobody's talking Beast 3.0 or whatever - indeed, with good fortune, it might be reasonably warm at times and for those in north-west Scotland who often get the rough end of the deal, there could be some excellent weather to be had if the cards drop right. For southern and eastern Britain, however, it doesn't look promising with the coasts troubled by sea fog and rain or showers never far away thanks to the persistent trough over western and central Europe.

This is why I enjoy looking at the models at this time of the year. The synoptic evolutions on offer are many and varied and some look completely improbable. That being said, the GEFS 12Z is actually more solid for northern blocking than the 00Z: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 A strong cluster of members holding heights to the north or north east by this time and with the European trough weaker and less defined the air flow is more south east than east drawing up warmer air. I see a more notable signal for blocking from Greenland at the very edge of FI past the middle of the month. It's possible we could have a warmer spell before the middle of the month before it turns cooler again further on - at this time of year, almost anything is possible.

Well, that's cheery Looking at the Danish Weather Service, the warm Southerly we were due to get at the weekend is reaching them with 17-18c the call on Saturday and Sunday. Interesting to note a significant cool-down as the wind shifts east on Monday with temperatures 7-12c. We're simply not going to get winter cold in April from an easterly (everyone knows that). Even a NE'ly won't deliver that as the numbers from Kiruna in the far north will tell you: https://www.smhi.se/vadret/vadret-i-sverige/ortsprognoser/q/Kiruna/605155#tab=0,chart=1 Finland is now mostly above freezing by day (though not at night) apart from the very NW corner. If you want an ice day now, head for Verkhoyansk though even there the daytime maximum in the strengthening sun is getting close to freezing.

To be honest, John, I find this synoptically the most interesting time of the year. Almost irrespective of the surface conditions, the synoptic evolutions are more diverse than at any other time. Looking at the 06Z GEFS, the OP not entirely without support but as we move into FI, the question becomes what next ? As we saw earlier in the week, the competing evolutions were a return to Atlantic dominance with westerlies or a continuation of the northern blocking pattern with easterlies - both these having variations on that theme. The Easterlies won the first round of that battle and we look to have a 7-10 day spell of easterly winds from early next week. They won't be cold - you really need a NE flow at this time of year to advect any serious cold from Scandinavia.

A cracking chart for Frosty and Summer Sun as Beast 3.0 makes a delayed appearance.

Morning all Yesterday, the battle between the westerly and easterly evolutions appeared to have been convincingly won by the latter but the next variation was along the lines of "how would you like your easterly ?" which meant either cold as in air sourced from Scandinavia/Russia or warm as in air sourced from the Black Sea. Yesterday's ECM 00Z went for the former but 12Z went for the latter while GEM was cold throughout. Let's see where we are this morning looking at the medium term output up to Sunday April 15th. Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: This ends effectively where GFS 00Z OP did yesterday. The easterly sets up next Tuesday as the LP drops south into northern France but by the end of the week both the LP and the Scandinavian HP are declining and we end with this very messy chart with a broad shallow trough over western Europe and heights over northern Scandinavian. Very light winds but probably reasonable weather for most. The Azores HP is trying to ridge in but the Atlantic isn't going anywhere quickly. GEM 00Z at T+240: Not dissimilar to the ECM this morning. The easterly sets up but by the weekend it's breaking down. Heights remain low over Europe with a weak ridge from the Azores across the north of the British Isles to Scandinavia keeping most places settled with any residual showers confined to southern and eastern parts. The Atlantic LP is encroaching so you'd think a return to a more westerly set up from here looks likely. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Counter intuitively, the GFS OP keeps the easterly going. The original HP cell declines SE but a new cell sets up to the west of Norway and maintains the easterly as the European trough re-organises in response. It's possible the GEM and ECM models above could see similar evolutions beyond T+240 - GFS is more progressive by 24-36 hours. The trough has centres over the western Mediterranean and Germany. The origin of the air flow is to the south and 850s are positive so it's not cold and you'd think rain or showers for southern and eastern parts would continue while the north and north west in particular would enjoy some fine weather with plenty of sunshine. Further into FI and the easterly fades and the Atlantic returns but with heights close to the SE the weather balance flips back to the more traditional so better for the SE, worse for the NW. GFS 00Z Control at the same time: Not dissimilar to the OP with a slack ENE'ly flow over the British Isles. A very different evolution further into FI with a strong HP setting up in mid Atlantic and the trough dropping across the British Isles leaving a cool NW'ly flow. The GEFS 00Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 The OP and Control certainly in a strong majority cluster favouring northern blocking though even within that there are variations (P5 and P9 the treat for the "warmies") so whether the HP is over Scandinavia, Greenland or just to the north of the British Isles far from resolved. Just a couple of Members offering an Atlantic alternative at this time. Looking further ahead, the Atlantic return is by no means convincing in the GEFS. I detect a signal for MLB close to or over the British Isles so perhaps a much drier second half of April ? IN summary, the evolution to an easterly looks set for next week. We're not talking Beast 4.0 or anything like that but the possibility of a nagging chilly breeze on eastern coasts can't be ruled out but easterlies aren't unusual in April and in a year with such a weak jet, perhaps inevitable. It does seem as though the easterly "could" be quite prolonged lasting 7-10 days at least as the HP re-invigorates to the west of Norway and while there's a signal for an Atlantic return 14 days from now it's far too early to be convincing. If you can get away for that Hebridean break at short notice, it might be a great time to go. For most of us, a slow improvement as temperatures return to something more seasonal but the threat of rain and showers for southern and eastern areas remains though other areas should dry up.

Morning all Signs of a more traditional April pattern in the south with heavy showers rather than heavy rain and a reminder that the Sun is now packing a bit more of a punch. In the north and over high ground, winter clings on as this most unusual early spring continues. Yesterday there seemed to be two distinct evolutions on offer - the mobile Atlantic westerly pattern so beloved of GFS or a continuation of northern blocking and a trough over Europe providing an easterly pattern for the British Isles. So where does this morning's output put us - today I'm looking ahead to Saturday April 14th, Grand National Day. Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: ECM remains strongly in the easterly camp this morning. The LP early next week slides SE into France and then returns NE into central Europe. With heights building to the west of Scandinavia the British Isles is in a chilly easterly flow for much of next week though western and northern parts will always have greater prospects of drier weather than southern and eastern areas. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: GEM has banged the drum consistently for the easterly so no surprise to see it produce a chart close to ECM. The European trough develops in situ over the Low Countries and it's basically a wet and not terribly warm outlook for southern and eastern parts. Further north more chance of settled conditions closer to the HP but it's a brisk ENE'ly flow for many so not very spring-like. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: A more progressive evolution from the GFS which is something we often see. While GEM and ECM maintain the European trough and Scandinavian HP GFS is already filling the former, declining the latter and shifting both to the east opening the door (you'd think) to an Atlantic LP and the ridging Azores HP. However, further into FI heights build again to the west of Scandinavian and the Atlantic LP heads SE toward northern France so the easterly returns as does the rain to the south. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: More like the GEM and ECM 00Z evolutions with a large HP over the Northern North Sea and ridging into Scandinavia with LP over Iberia and the Mediterranean so an ENE'ly flow for the British Isles but generally dry and not too bad for northern and western parts. More risk of rain or showers further south and east. Further into FI the easterly pattern continues even as the HP slowly retreats and LP closes in from the south. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Again, the easterly pattern is confirmed with a moderate ENE'ly flow over the British Isles. Further into FI the HP retrogresses to Greenland but remains in charge with a strong ridge south so most areas dry but not excitingly warm and plenty of frost risk under clear skies, The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Perhaps not quite as unanimous as I had envisaged and the Mean offers more Atlantic influence but there is a strong cluster based around blocking to the NE or NW and some very cold Members (P7 being a good example). There are others where the negatively tilted trough is calling the shots and two or three have a warmer more settled SW'ly with the Azores HP ridging forward. In summary, it looks game, set and match to the easterly this morning with as much cross model agreement as I've seen since the run-up to Beast 1.0. All the models suggest the LP next month sliding SE as heights build, to the NE and some form of east or north-east flow becoming established. Once there, there's no easy way back and given April's tendency to produce easterlies this could be a significant pattern for the month so a good time for that Scottish holiday in the Hebrides while for southern England in particular spring looks a very long way off this morning.

Evening all Plenty of interesting output around this evening. I thought earlier in the day as per the 06 GEFS clusters we had two distinct routes - one involved a return of the Atlantic while the other kept northern blocking and a trough over Europe or to out it very crudely - westerlies vs easterlies. GFS 12Z Control at T+192: A beautifully negatively tilted trough sliding SE into Europe with heights to the north. GEM 12Z OP at T+192: Not much comment needed. ECM 12Z OP at T+192: A halfway house of sorts ? GFS 12Z OP at T+192: Following the westerly theme of the 06Z OP - will be interesting to see if it maintains this in the morning but ECM and GEM are keener on building a European trough leading to a potential standoff between HP to the NE and SW and LP to the SE and NW .

The 06Z OP was a big step away from previous runs, Phil. Here's the Control at T+192: More akin to what we saw through the winter with the energy heading SE and heights building to the north. The modelling of Greenland and the North between OP and Control couldn't be more different with the Control suggesting a strongly negative NAO (at times west based so milder for us) but ending with a strong ridge SE from Greenland. The GEFS at T+192: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192 Two distinct clusters to my eye - one represented by the OP, one by the Control.

Very different evolution to the 00Z OP: The T+234 chart shows much stronger Atlantic influence and unsettled with LP close to Ireland. Not cold by any means but no sign of anything settled or warm from this but it's a major change of direction from GFS and we'll have to see if it is picking up a new trend (MJO passing through 7-8-1 more quickly and into phases 3 and 4 perhaps ?)

The 06Z OP going in a completely different direction to the 00Z OP at quite short range: No sign of any northern heights on this - instead, the Atlantic moves back in but also note a much stronger Azores HP trying to ridge NE across southern parts.

Morning all An interesting Easter Weekend for many weather wise. Plenty of rain and indeed snow for some with LP never far away. Some, it seems, are now craving spring and warmer temperatures. The weather of course doesn't care what you or I think. Inevitably it will get warmer and drier but how, when and where is as always up for grabs. This morning time to look ahead to the middle of the month with the synoptic summary for Friday March 13th and I'll start with the ECM 00Z OP for T+240: The change in pattern likely from this weekend takes us in a different direction into the second week of April. The LP fills and disrupts to the south and west of the British Isles allowing heights to build to the north which in turn lowers heights over Europe and the British Isles gets various flavours of an E'ly flow. Some were claiming it would be a balmy or warm SE'ly and were heralding the arrival of spring but the ECM this morning is much less convincing. 850s are around or just below zero and the really warm air is well to the SE. Southern areas have a cool ENE'ly flow likely to contain rain or showers but fine under light winds further north with perhaps night frosts in Scotland. On then to GEM 00Z at T+240: The evolution is very different. The LP this weekend disrupts and sinks south to Iberia and HP sets up over the British Isles but that in turn starts to sink SE as the trough starts to return north over France so the British Isles is left in a warm SE'ly air flow and dry for most with the increasing threat of showers from the south. Note the jet kept a long way north. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Unusually for GFS, a messy and complex evolution through this week and into next. After a brief warmer spell this weekend, the LP slides SE into Europe but keeps the trough trailing along the Channel. Heights build into Scandinavia from the NW and a chilly E'ly sets up early next week after which the Scandinavian heights retreat north allowing a very cold flow into Scandinavia while a complex trough sets up over NW Europe and the British Isles so very light winds but showers by day and chilly at night with a risk of frosts. Further into FI and as it often does, the GFS brings back the Atlantic with deep LP and SW winds returning to the British Isles. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: A complex trough covers the British isles with rain or showers likely for many under light winds. Further into FI, the Control follows the OP in bringing back Atlantic dominance. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 P4 would give any self-respecting fan of spring the wobbles. It's about as good a chart as any cold weather fan could wish for at this time. Nonetheless, it's on its own though it's fair to say a significant number of E'ly sourced charts in the suite. A few SW'lies and one or two warm HP set ups but a mixed bag overall as you'd expect and the trend for heights to the east or north east still looks strong at this time. Beyond that I sense no strong signal for anything at this time and a vast array of synoptic options on the table. In summary, as I've said for weeks now, the transition to spring is the battle between competing warmer and colder air masses. This past weekend has seen the British Isles as part of the battle ground and the result has been copious amounts of rain. With a recent SSW and no strong jet signal, the colder air masses have been stronger and more entrenched and in the next 7-10 days, the struggle continues as a brief warmer spell at the end of this week looks set to be followed by a return to chilly E'ly winds next week. Whether the Atlantic will win out as we reach the middle of the month remains to be seen but as long as we have heights to the north east and a trough over Europe it's not going to get warm quickly. That being said, some now want dry more than warm and the problem with the absence of a strong jet and little sign of the Azores HP coming into play this morning is that it leaves the trough to sit aimlessly close to the British Isles keeping the rain and showers going.

ECM 12Z OP at T+168: The HP then moves east into Scandinavia as the trough to the south of the British Isles eases back north so the worst of the rain or showers to southern areas. GFS 12Z OP at the same time: GFS 12Z Control at the same time: GFS slightly more progressive than ECM but the trend is the same. The HP moves into Scandinavia and the trough moves back across the British Isles albeit as a shallow feature so showers rather than rain. NAVGEM 12Z at the same time: A more amplified option with a tighter gradient over the British Isles. Beast 4.0 over Scandinavia but NOT coming our way (probably).

Why not comment on this spring-like chart instead ? Lovely chart from the GFS 00Z Control for so-called "coldies".