stodge

Winter returns according to FIM: -8 uppers moving into Scotland by this time. Yes, I know....

Yet the GFS seems to be moving in the opposite direction with an increasingly zonal looking outlook with a re-juvenated Atlantic and the jet kicking back north as the Azores HP builds. I'm also truck by the resilience of the PV rumours of whose demise might have been exaggerated. I don't think it was finished off the SSW and the warmings since and hangs around until well into the month before starting to finally dissipate. This is I think pointing to a return to a more zonal evolution rather than northern blocking.

Morning all Thanks for the kind word on my daily reports - I'll keep them going through the spring and then we'll see. Flickers of interest in the output last evening but a pleasantly milder weekend for many coming albeit on the damp side. This morning's report takes us to Monday March 19th and starts as always with ECM 00Z OP at T+240: A LP is filling in situ to the west of the British Isles having been more or less stationary for some days. A HP came down from Scandinavia and is now retreating ESE over the Baltic States as a new LP forms in the Norwegian Sea. A slack SE'ly flow covers the British Isles with the wettest weather in the west and often dry further east. Uppers are only just negative so possibly below average but not cold though I imagine frost at night in sheltered eastern and northern parts would remain a risk. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: As the Scandinavian HP retreats SE, an Atlantic LP makes slow progress eastwards with frontal cloud and rain crossing the British Isles. A secondary feature in advance of the main LP looks set to enhance any wet weather for western and southern parts. The Azores HP is currently well to the south but the jet has moved back north a little. Could the LP elongate SE into Europe ? Possible but unlikely. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: Some similarities to what we've seen on the other models with the Atlantic trough struggling to make inroads into the British Isles in the face of resistant HP to the east. The jet has shifted north and a mild SW'ly covers the British Isles albeit with further cloud and rain approaching. Further into FI and the evolution gets quite messy with heights lower over Europe and attempts to build heights from the NE and later the NW. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Broadly similar to the OP but perhaps a shade more progressive with a deeper LP. Further into Control and it all gets quite zonal with the Azores HP moving further north but overall a changeable and unremarkable pattern. GEFS for 00Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 A mixed bag as you might expect. There's support for the OP/Control evolution having LP close to or just west of the British Isles but a minority retain some form of northern blocking with a couple of quite cold members. There's little support for anything warm or settled at this time. Moving further into FI and the signal for mid-Atlantic ridging remains strong. In summary, there seems to be a signal for an attempted incursion by a Scandinavian HP in the next week or so but that does nothing other than hold the Atlantic LP systems out to the west and lift the jet back north. By the end of next week, the Atlantic is approaching and the unsettled pattern looks set. There's little sign of meaningful cold or indeed, apart from this weekend, meaningful warmth either. After yesterday's interest, the charts have gone a bit dull this morning and there seems a strong signal to revert to a more zonal type despite events in the stratosphere. That doesn't mean we may not get a change later in the month but that change now looks at the earliest to be the weekend before Easter.

Beast 2 courtesy of FIM: I'll go and have a lie-down.

Evening all Fascinating synoptics across the models tonight - plenty to look at and plenty to consider as the cold and warm air masses do battle. Lots of toying with height rises across Scandinavia this evening again across the models. Starting with UKMO and the T+144 tonight reminds me of last night's ECM 12Z OP evolution which got everyone excited: GEM 12Z OP ends with plenty of northern blocking: ECM 12Z OP tonight ends in a stand off between cold and mild: GFS 12Z OP threatens Beast 2: Lots of blocking in the 12Z GEFS for good measure. I'm NOT saying any of this will verify but in synoptic terms this is my favourite time of the year when you see patterns you don't see at other times. I'm enjoying the eye candy.

Morning all The annual battle between colder and warmer air masses that is called spring advances and while last night's ECM 12Z looked very interesting in its latter stages, it's clear some people are done with cold and want something warm. Spring tantalises delivering warm and then very often a final burst of cold. Let's see where the models are taking us on Sunday March 18th: ECM 00Z OP at T+240: A complex trough is aligned north-south through the British Isles with centres close to the north of Scotland and the coast of Brittany. A ridge follows from the west while pressure is high to the north of Scandinavia. Light winds for most of the British Isles with a slack N'ly over Ireland. Rain or showers for some northern and southern parts but some drier spells as well. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: A complex trough covers the British Isles with a main centre over the North Sea and a small secondary feature in the Channel. Pressure is higher over the Canaries, Greenland and Scandinavia. A slack W'ly air flow covers southern parts but winds are light elsewhere. Rain or showers continue to affect some eastern and south western parts but there is a hint of a weak ridge moving in from the west. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: A LP is filling in situ to the south west of the British Isles . Another LP is moving slowly east into Scandinavia forcing a HP which developed to the NE of Scandinavia south west toward Denmark. There is a ridge extending SE from another HP over Greenland. Overall, it's a slack and messy picture with a light SE'ly flow over the UK. Rain and showers becoming increasingly restricted to south western areas and drier elsewhere. Further into FI the ridging from Greenland becomes more influential with brief N or NE'ly flows over the British isles but the jet remains well to the south, the trough in charge and spring on hold. GFS 06Z at T+234: LP to the NW of the British Isles dominates the weather with a trough extending SE. A light WNW'ly flow covers Ireland with light winds elsewhere and showers for many with longer spells of rain (snow to hills) to the north west. Mid-Atlantic ridging looks to be squeezed out by the next LP coming off the eastern seaboard. Further into FI and with the jet kept well to the south areas of LP continue to cross southern Britain with plenty of rain and showers. Occasionally colder spells as well with wintry weather can't be ruled out with significant blocking over Greenland persisting. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: Close to the OP in all honesty with perhaps more defined ridging in mid-Atlantic. Further into FI and like the OP the Control remains very unsettled with LP held well to the south crossing the British Isles and the threat of cold Arctic air never far away. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Plenty of LP in charge but a hint of blocking from both the NE and NW at this time and further out into FI that hint grows with by T+360 two or three very tasty options for fans of cold but all that is a long way off. To conclude, the trough rules supreme for the next 7-10 days with any transient milder interlude this weekend likely to be accompanied by a lot of rain and the pattern throughout next week suggests rain or showers will never be far away with the south and parts of Scotland catching the most rainfall. Transient ridges at best and more than a hint as we move into the last third of the month of a return of wintry conditions which, while nothing like last week's events, would be a shock to the system for many expecting something more spring like. In truth, I can see almost no sign of prolonged warmth this morning - some of the options yesterday flirted with a draw of warmer S'ly air but they have faded and winter has taken a step forward in my view this morning.

I'd also note the ridge south from Greenland into the mid Atlantic.

Actually what would be less surprising is if we saw a warm spell followed by a cold spell - that happens quite often in spring so it's 15c one day and 5c the next. Without the mitigation of an Atlantic jet, it's highly likely we could see some sharp oscillations this month.

Indeed and both GEM and ECM this morning were hinting at a new HP to the north of Scandinavia. It's reasonable to be cautious and sceptical without being too much of a "wet blanket" - if I was in Denmark I'd be getting interested and that's a seriously cold pool of air (-20 to -24 uppers) to the north of that LP moving into Finland and the Baltic States. Let's see where the morning takes us - even the 12Z GEFS has one or two members hinting at the NE height rise so I'd question it has "no support". It's a wild card at this time and unlikely to verify.

Both the 06Z GFS OP and Control play with the idea of ridging south from Greenland. The OP starts well but then for some reason changes the ridging to the west and we end with a west-based negative NAO. The Control builds a weak mid-Atlantic ridge with a suggestion of an Arctic incursion not far away. Looking at the GEFS in far FI briefly and the signal for renewed northern blocking is clear if not wholly convincing at this time. Both OP and Control begin the amplification at T+252 so we'll see if it gets into my medium range summary tomorrow morning.

Morning all I have to say that AAM spike got me wondering as well - I did think the Pacific Jet had substantially amplified on the 12Z OP yesterday. While that's being resolved, I'll take a look at the medium range model outlook this morning taking us to St Patrick's Day, Saturday March 17th: ECM 00Z kicks off the dancing at T+240: A deepening area of LP is moving N from the North Sea into the Norwegian Sea and leaving the British Isles in a slack N'ly airflow with increasingly cold air coming south and -8 uppers over Scotland. A small secondary feature looks set to head SE across western parts. Showers or longer spells of rain with snow to altitude looks the call. A new LP is developing to the SW and looks set to approach southern Britain. GEM 00Z at the same time: LP is centred over southern England and the trough extends east and west to a second main centre over the far Atlantic. To the north, there is substantial HP over Greenland and to the north of Scandinavia. Calm winds over the south but an ESE'ly over northern Britain though uppers are positive for all. Rain or showers for most would be the weather with the worst of the rain in the south. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: An area of LP is centred over the east coast with a second centre further north. A ridge of HP to the west is followed by a new developing LP in mid Atlantic. There are heights over Greenland and to the north of Scandinavia. Over the British Isles a WNW'ly flow is in charge for the west with light winds elsewhere and there would be plenty of rain or showers from this evolution. Further into FI the LP remains close to the British Isles but fills in situ as the Azores HP tries to become more influential and at T+384 looks to be ridging toward Greenland. GFS 00Z Control at the same time: The trough is further west but still very much in charge at this time. A hint of some warmer conditions for the SE corner. Further into FI and the trough disrupts south as heights rise to the north and north west and by T+384 there's a light ESE'ly flow over the British isles but the air source is much further south and we could see some real early warmth with a plume-like push of very warm air north just to the east of the British Isles and the +8 uppers crossing East Anglia which would offer the first 20c of the year if it verified. The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Not much argument for there with LP very much in charge. The exact placing and orientation of LP centres varies enormously as you'd expect but the general theme of a disturbed and often wet scenario is there for all to see. Beyond that and it's clear the GEFS are sniffing round various solutions - some, as the Control, bring some early season warmth, some cold and some both (P16 is one to look at). I presume this is a response to the next phase of stratospheric warming so we'll see where it goes. We all know the warmer air mass will win in the end but battle is joined and the British isles is the soggy battle ground. In conclusion, if you want dry, settled weather you've come to the wrong place. Apart from a favourable flow in front of an approaching LP or a transient ridge there's very little break from rain or showers over the next 10 days. It's likely higher elevations will continue to see snow and perhaps the snow level will drop further in the far north with time but other models keep temperatures closer to average. Longer term the signal for some sort of pattern change is there but it's very diffuse at this time - we could see some early spring warmth or we could be back in the fridge or we could move from the one to the other very quickly as is often the case as winter becomes spring. Finally, a look at the rainfall numbers from the GFS 00Z OP: The best part of 4 inches in the next 10 days for parts of the south west and south Wales.

Afternoon all Worth keeping an eye on the rainfall numbers with the south catching most: As for the extraordinary amplification this is how the 12Z GFS OP shows it on the Pacific side: Look at the jet streak buckling north over far eastern Siberia and Alaska and then moving south in the northern Pacific. Doesn't seem to impact our side of the globe much at all but that's because it's in Phase 4/5 whereas the amplification from the SSW led to high amplitude Phase 7/8 which allowed the Scandinavian HP to set yp.

To clarify, the chart I posted was from Control which only foes colder than the OP at the very end while the OP has a long colder spell before going milder at the very end. Oddly enough, we end up pretty much where we are now - there's a clear warm up over the weekend coming but after that much less clarity as you would expect. We'll see if both the midweek warm up next week and the general cool down from mid month are trend setters or red herrings.

The 06Z Control follows on from the 00Z OP building heights to the NE and SW forcing the trough into a NW-SE alignment across the British Isles before disrupting it to the west. Here's a dream chart for fans of cold rain: Uppers of -4 to -8 late March - would it be rain ? Not worth the time it's taken to produce this post at this time but a trend of sorts starting to emerge.

Morning all Less interest it seems in the model discussion forum these days but no less interesting to see the proposed evolution. This morning I'm looking at where the models suggest we might be on Friday March 16th: Starting as always with ECM 00Z OP at T+240: LP very much in charge with the jet still running to the south of the British Isles. One centre has crossed southern England and is now moving east over north Germany leaving a cold NW'ly airflow with uppers below -4 so a cold showery spell with a secondary feature to the far NW and a new LP developing in the Atlantic and mocing wast toward the British Isles. Weather would be cold and showery for me with snow to low ground in the north and higher ground generally. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: A broad but complex trough covers the North Atlantic and much of North West Europe. There are a number of separate LP centres including one in the North Sea. The south of Britain is in a light WNW'ly airflow but light winds prevail elsewhere. The weather would be cold and unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. It's worth noting the Azores HP is starting to put in an appearance promising something milder albeit only a transient ridge for now. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Another complex trough in charge with the main LP centre just to the south of the British Isles moving east with a second centre to the NE of Scotland. A NW'ly airflow for western parts but light winds elsewhere, Rain to the south, more showery further north. Uppers are broadly positive in the south and east but colder air is spreading from the west and north west. Further into FI and it's all change as heights build from the NW dropping into Scandinavia and intensifying and from the SW as the Azores HP tries to ridge north. Between these two features the trough is forced NW-SE across the British Isles and into Europe. Ultimately, the trough disrupts to the west leaving an E'ly flow for southern and south eastern areas with uppers falling below -4. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Not too different to the OP in all honesty. The Control does try to lift the Azores HP north toward the British Isles but the Atlantic is too strong and the very end of FI on Control looks an interesting direction. The 00Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Not much spread so general agreement the LP will be in charge. Some members pull the LP centre further east or south drawing in colder N'ly or E'ly air-flows respectively but the majority call is to have the LP over or very close to the British Isles. Further into FI and the signal for heights from both north and south is quite strong - a number of members try to build a mid-Atlantic ridge, others bring the Azores HP north so it's one to watch. In conclusion, it's an unsettled and often cold outlook toward the end of next week with LP close to the British isles bringing in plenty of rain and showers, the wettest weather reserved for the south and south west: There will be milder interludes, no question, especially as LP approaches and we get a brief feed of warmer air but, and especially so for the north, colder conditions look set to dominate - nothing like last week but below March average values. Moving past mid month into the final third of March and hints aplenty of a change with the LP dissipating and heights rising to both north and south. Whether that leads to a spring like spell dominated by the Azores HP or whether northern heights will prolong the wintry feel up to Easter remains to be seen at this very early stage. The battle of the colder and warmer air-masses continues.

IF the GFS 06Z OP verified, a very wet theme for south western parts: 6 inches of rain over the moors in the next ten days - 3-4 inches widely in Devon, Cornwall and South Wales on top of the huge recent volume of melted snow. Flooding issues ?

Morning all As the recent cold spell fades into history or romanticised nostalgia, thoughts are turning among some on here to spring and a yearning for the first 20c day. Unfortunately, the weather isn't like a light switch and as I noted last week, the model output wasn't showing a quick path to spring-like temperatures as the battle between colder and warmer air-masses continues and with both the jet well to the south and cold air not that far away to the north and north-east, will there be more twists and turns to come this month ? This morning's mid-range analysis takes us to Thursday March 15th and starts as always with the ECM 00z OP at that time: An unsettled outlook. One LP has crossed the British Isles filling from SW to NE and is over Denmark but a new LP is in the southwest approaches with the main LP close to Iceland. A mild SSE'ly covers the British Isles in advance of frontal systems bringing rain slowly from the south west. Residual heights remain over Scandinavia. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: A shallow trough covers the British isles and extends from Scandinavia back into the Atlantic with the jet running to the south. LP centred in the North Sea is drawing in a slack but cold N'ly flow over the British Isles. A secondary shallow LP is approaching from the SW but might only affect southernmost counties and the Channel Islands. Pressure remains high over Greenland with a weak ridge SE. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: The first LP crossed the country from SW to NE over the weekend and is in the Norwegian Sea but a new area of LP is approaching and deepening from the SW and is to the south of Cornwall with strong winds on its western flank. Any drier periods in central areas will be erased by rain moving from the south and south west. The eye is drawn to a developing but weak mid-Atlantic ridge. However, further into FI it gets squeezed out and the jet seems to buckle back north as the Azores HP becomes more influential. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: The evolution is different with the Azores HP much more pronounced and ridging north as the LP moves away to the NNE. A light NW'ly airflow covers the British Isles at this time. Further into FI and a much more zonal evolution develops with the classic sine wave of ridges and troughs. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: A much colder evolution with a NE'ly flow over the British Isles and a more significant mid-Atlantic ridge than on the OP. Further into FI, the cold snap doesn't last but the jet remains well to the south allowing LP to cross the British Isles keeping the weather unsettled with temperatures often below average. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: The 06 GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Plenty of colder options in there to my eye. The exact position and orientation of the LP varies greatly but the possibility of a more N'ly airflow can't be excluded. I don't se much sign of settled HP at this time. To conclude, little has changed since last week. The extreme cold has gone but the transition to what many would regard as spring-like conditions is going to be very slow. Indeed, the immediate future looks very unsettled with plenty of rain in the coming weekend as a vigorous system moves up from the SW and a repeat performance next week is on the cards from GFS next week. Other models keep the trough over the British Isles so with an unsettled and often cold theme especially in the north. GFS further into FI tries to bring the jet back north allowing the warmer air-mass to encroach but there is also a signal for renewed Scandinavian blocking. At the moment this is all speculation - I can't see a ready route to spring warmth and indeed rain (and plenty of it) will be the theme for the next week to ten days.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres The 12Z ENs for London so it looks as though there will be a cooler midweek before a warming through next weekend after which there's plenty of scatter. Plenty of rain from later next week onward with the 850s oscillating around zero so temperatures close to normal for London.

Looking through some of the ECM members going out to middle month, I'd certainly argue the one thing I don't see is warmth or mild SW'lies. Plenty of blocking to the North and NW and plenty showing LP over Europe so E'lies and NE'lies as well so we aren't done with winter at all. Yes, we won't see anything on the remarkable scale of -15 uppers from the last few days but you only need -5 uppers for snow at sea level and sometimes a little warmer than that under the right circumstances and snow at the end of March, even in the south, is not impossible by any stretch. I think it highly likely we'll get a quick taste of spring before the next burst of something colder around or just after mid month. I'm more concerned if the GFS 12Z OP verifies and the amounts of rainfall forecast on top of melting snow could be problematic for south western areas.

Evening all A rare weekend drop into the model thread - my eye was drawn by this: A lot of rain for parts of the south and south west over the next 10 days and more than 3 inches of rain before the start of Cheltenham - soft ground perhaps ? ECM and GEM deepen a single centre to the SW and we get a brief pull of SSW'ly winds so a transient spring. Interesting to look at the far reaches of GEFS 12Z and see plenty of members at renewed amplification to the NW and NE so a final kick from winter before month end can't be ruled out.

Evening all A steady and relentless thaw starting overnight has taken most of the snow here. I wouldn't describe today as "mild" - 3c currently and it reminds me of the Monday before Christmas 2010 when we lost half the weekend's snow in a day as warmer 850s crept in. Coming back across at Dartford there was plenty of fog and low cloud but dry today so far.

Evening all As @danm lives not too far from my part of the world, his figures and mine are going to be fairly similar. Wednesday February 28th was the coldest day with the maximum recorded -2.7c, the lowest figure I've recorded since 2010 in this location. Yesterday, Friday 2nd March, was also an ice day and both Tuesday and Thursday were very close so that's four days of temperatures close to or below freezing, extraordinary for the location and time of year (when day time maxima should be 9c). I'll remember this spell for the ferocity and bitterness of the wind. Wednesday was frigid and bitter but we endured days of a strong and increasingly cold E'ly wind which drove down air and ground temperatures and acted as a prelude to the snowfall. Last Saturday my maximum temperature was 4c but as the uppers declined and the wind continued, the temperature steadily fell to its nadir on Wednesday. Very low night minima were masked by the absence of frost and ice as the air was so dry. In terms of snowfall, I measured 3.5 inches of lying snow. This came through showers starting on Monday and extending through Tuesday and a second frontal-based snowfall yesterday. There was notable sublimation as a result of the strong dry wind as distinct from actual snow melt (which began overnight and has continued all day with a steady thaw). That's less than January 2013, December 2010 and February 2009 in terms of quantity but it proved more durable than the last-named with snow remaining lying for nearly five days which is remarkable in the urban heat island at this time of year. To be fair, it wasn't a wholly gloomy spell by any stretch with considerable sunshine on both Tuesday and Wednesday (between the showers). I'd consider this to have been a well-forecast spell - the showers took their time to arrive but delivered when they did and the breakdown has been well called since midweek. In terms of "ranking", it's not 2010 but I'd put it second to that spell in this decade and in front of March 2013 which had longevity but not really severity. On a wider scale, it's the latest in a series of European "cold waves" but this time we weren't on the fringes but right in the middle.

Evening all Another extraordinary day of weather - the fourth near ice day in a row. Unprecedented for the time of year. Still snowing in lowland East London and current depth is 3.5 inches on the car bonnet so not as much as December 2010 or February 2009 and comparable with January 2013. We are supposed to go milder through the night but I anticipate plenty of fog tomorrow as the thaw sets in. Temperatures returning to near average by middle of next week (supposedly) but the 12Z models suggest we'll stay on the cold side for a lot of the week. ECM keeps the 850s at 0 to -4 for most of the week so below average as I see it.

Morning all With a change to less cold conditions on the horizon - I wouldn't call 6-7c in early March "mild" but there will be those ramping up any improvement as a transition to spring - it's my turn to look at the medium term trends taking us out to Monday March 12th this morning. Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: Perhaps a sign of something more seasonal as the Azores HP moves into France (noting the LP further south). LP is further north and north west leaving the British Isles in a SW'ly flow with drier and warmer conditions in the south but the north remains colder and more changeable. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: An LP over France has left a residual light E'ly flow over southern Britain but the Azores HP is moving in and with LP in the Atlantic you'd think there would soon be a reversion to milder SW'ly air but there remains a strong cold ridge over Scandinavia so an alternative evolution might be to an enhanced HP over or close to the British Isles. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Not too disisimilar an evolution with LP to the NW and SE and HP to the South and NE leaving the British Isles in a SW'ly airflow. Further into FI, as the Azores HP migrates east, pressure falls over the Azores and heights rise to the north leaving the British Isles in a much colder NE'ly airflow. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Not too far from the OP but with HP closer to the British Isles keeping the south in particular fine. Further into FI, a lobe of HP breaks from the main Azores cell and moves North then NE to the north and west of the British isles before slowing and intensifying over Scandinavia ushering in a colder E'ly airflow with -12 uppers knocking on the door of the east coast by T+384. The GEFS 00Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 A real mixed bag - one or two interesting features including some Members keeping low heights over Europe. I would consider the OP and Control on the milder side of the suite looking at the collective at this time. With the passage of time we now have the GFS 06Z OP at T=240: Continuing the theme of trying to build the Azores HP back in against the trough and much colder air to the north. Further into FI and a brief milder air is reversed as the LP starts slipping south toward the British Isles and introduces a PM flow from the NW. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: A much more disturbed evolution with LP in charge and the British Isles in a cool if not cold NW'ly. Further into FI the Control builds heights over Scandinavia and a cold ENE'ly sets up but the north would be dry and fine, The GEFS for 06Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 A growing number of members sniffing out something colder from the NE as lower heights drop into Europe and pressure rises from the NW. In summary, the evolution from winter to spring remains long, drawn out and uncertain. This week's extremely frigid air will be history for most by Monday but it's a real struggle to bring in more seasonal conditions so several more days of below average temperatures seem probable. There are hints approaching mid month of a greater influence of the Azores HP but equally after mid month there are a number of options for renewed colder attacks from the east or north-east. Snow or wintry conditions later in March wouldn't be unusual so it would be unwise to assume winter is done with us yet or that spring is just round the corner. It wouldn't be at all surprising to see a final burst of winter before the end of the month.

Evening all The main change in lowland East London since this morning has been the increase in wind - a fresh to strong and bitter easterly has picked up. No snow and a gradual rise in temperature - I still think I've had a second ice day here but only just. Temperature has stabilised and set to remain constant through tomorrow just below freezing with no real "warm-up" until Sunday. Even next week's milder values are still well below the early March average. My hope is we avoid freezing rain - very unpleasant stuff !!