stodge

Afternoon all Calm, quiet and cold would sum up East Ham this lunchtime - went out briefly an hour or so ago, the air remains chilled and -3c feels generous. A second ice day here and will we get a third tomorrow ? Some disappearance of lying snow - evaporation I would assume ? Warmer buildings allowing some snow melt on roofs but a site more akin to mid December than the first day of March. As we don't have children, I'm not getting involved in the "should schools be open ?" debate. I normally work in Guildford but my Manager has written off the rest of the week and I'm working at home today and tomorrow. To be fair, I got home from Guildford last night without too much trouble. Both South Western Railway and the Underground were working well despite the conditions and some of the pavements in my area had been gritted.

It's incredibly rare to get an ice day in London but to have consecutive days in Feb/March is extraordinary. To be fair, we had an ice day on March 11th 2013 and before that Saturday December 18th 2010 but I can't recall two successive ice days in the past 40 years. In 1987, Monday January 11th was unprecedented in terms of severity of cold - my maximum that day (albeit in SE rather East London) was -5.6c and we've been above that this week - but not so in terms of longevity. It's entirely possible we'll have a third ice day tomorrow and that will be beyond unusual - it will be a glimpse of what people endured for weeks in 1963 or 1947 and this in the urban heat island. We've had snow in March (2008 if memory serves and 2013 so the snow lying isn't that rare) but the severity and longevity of the cold is and has been remarkable - it has been consistently and persistently cold since Monday. It's entirely possible some places further north could be below freezing for 7-10 days if some of the model output I've seen is accurate.

Morning all Obviously, focus on the immediate both in terms of snowfall and the complex LP moving WNW and its interaction with the cold air over the British Isles. That's for others - I'll look further ahead to where we might be by Sunday March 11th or Mother's Day or Mothering Sunday or Jackpot Day for a pub with a carvery. Starting as always with the ECM 00Z OP at T+240: A shallow LP is over the north east of the British Isles and winds are light here but further south and west winds are from a NW'ly direction. The LP is part of a complex trough elongated north-south across Europe with centres to the north west of Norway and over Romania. HP to the Azores is trying to ridge north (as yesterday) to residual heights over Greenland. Uppers below zero everywhere so temperatures still struggling and below average. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: Very different or is it simply more progressive? A developing HP over Biscay with a ridge to the north is crossing the British Isles so light winds for most but a residual NNW'ly over eastern areas. Pressure remains high over Scandinavia with a ridge westwards from an intense HP and the jet is lifted north. Uppers remain below -4 for most of the British Isles so temperatures remain below average with frost likely at night. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Different again and even more progressive ? Perhaps but it's a hint of spring for the British Isles with a southerly flow as a HP moves east and intensifies with the cell now centred over the Low Countries and ridging north. LP is in mid-Atlantic but going nowhere slowly. Further into FI and as expected the HP moves into Scandinavia and intensifies ridging back west allowing pressure to drop over Europe as an E'ly sets up over the south of the British Isles. While lacking the potency of the current spell, -8 uppers in mid March would certainly deliver snow for many and especially so at altitude. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: A very different and flatter evolution. Plenty of colder air over Scandinavia and a weak ridge coming SE from heights over Greenland. The Azores HP is ridging east into Iberia but not really moving north. It's a messy chart and with uppers between -4 and -8 across the British isles still very much on the cold side for the time of year. Further into FI and the jet stays well to the south with shallow LP areas crossing southern areas periodically bringing rain. Looking at the uppers, there are periodic incursions of milder air into the south but the north remains in cold or very cold uppers so any precipitation could well be topping up the snow cover. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: A clear distinction between the colder air-mass over Scandinavia and something milder coming off the Atlantic as the cold trough pulls away far enough east to allow the Azores HP to ridge in. Further into FI and "normal service" is resumed with a broadly SW flow with heights to the south and SE and LP to the north and NW. The 06 GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Plenty of options but I can only see the odd Member that screams "spring". Most keep winter very much in charge with air flows from the north or east. It's also trough dominated so rain or snow looks likely and with very low 850s especially in the north, I'd argue more snow for many and especially so to altitude. IN summary, the transition from winter to spring looks sluggish at best on today's medium term output. The south seems set to see milder air on occasions as LP pass over or close by and uppers come back nearer zero (which would only denote average temperatures for the time of year). Further north, the air stays cold and temperatures remain below or indeed well below what you would expect. Plenty of rain and snow on offer with the onus on the former in the south and on lower ground and on the latter in the north and to elevation. One evolution I am interested in is seeing a lobe of the Azores HP transfer east and then NE into Scandinavia. This ties in to suggestions I've picked up from GP and others of a further phase of blocking into mid month and beyond. The 00Z OP took that and ran with it and it's been hinted at elsewhere while others keep the trough and the colder air over Scandinavia and as that fades east, the Atlantic comes in. The plethora of options across the models this morning illustrates the uncertainties out there and the hugely unusual environment we are enjoying or enduring currently.

An extraordinary day less perhaps for the snow but for the temperature. It never got above -2.8c here in lowland East London and there's still a bitter wind blowing if you do catch it. I make that the coldest day for a good number of years (certainly since 2013 if not well before) and for that coldest day to happen on the last day of February rather than say late December or early January makes it doubly remarkable. Had this synoptic set up occurred on December 28th rather than January 28th we'd probably not have got the volume of snow but the temperatures would have been incredibly low and it makes you wonder if some of the brutal frosts of olden times came out of synoptics such as those we are experiencing.

Moderate snow here in lowland East London. Not sure how much this is accumulating compared to the early hours. I'd love to know the current DP - the air temperature is -2 so it's all snow but just doesn't seem to be settling as well as I'd expected. Could be the urban heat island effect I suppose.

Morning all Quiet in here as you might expect with plenty of places seeing snowfall. Looking further ahead, what are the models seeing beyond the vagaries of this weekend's event and as far as Saturday March 10th: Starting as always with ECM 00Z OP at T+240: A cold front is clearing SE removing a brief incursion of much warmer air into the south of the British Isles. A broad but shallow LP is moving slowly ENE into Scandinavia and the eye is drawn to ridging from Greenland and the Azores into mid-Atlantic. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: Very different but perhaps less so than on first look. A long trough extends NE from mid Atlantic to the north of the British Isles and into Scandinavia with heights rising from the south across western Europe. This draws in a mild or very mild SW'ly airflow to all areas so pleasant if not benign conditions for most ahead of the next Atlantic frontal system approaching from the SW. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: A complex trough sits over or near the British Isles. The main centre to the SW is aligned NW-SE and looks set to head into Iberia. Pressure is rising over Scandinavia and winds over the British Isles are generally light but with a SE'ly in western areas. Uppers are just negative so showers mainly of rain (though snow to altitude). Into FI and the trough edges north toward Greenland but makes little eastward progress as heights rise strongly in response to the NE of Scandinavia leaving the British Isles in potentially a new battleground situation. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: A simpler evolution with a stationary deep Atlantic LP squaring off against a strong anti-cyclone over northern Scandinavia. The British Isles is in a SE'ly airflow but with colder air encroaching toward East Anglia and the SE from the east. Further into FI the HP dominates moving SW to sit over the British Isles before declining slowly east and allowing much warmer SW'ly winds to move in with a taste of spring just after mid month. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: More complex though actually less so than it looks. It may at first appear we have LP to the north, south, east and west of the British Isles and indeed we do but there are heights over Southern Scandinavia and ridging up from the Azores so the British Isles is in a calm col with a very light N'ly flow. FI hasn't fully rolled out but it looks as though HP will set up over Denmark drawing a SE'ly over the British Isles. The 06Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 For all that's there little apparent spread, there are a lot of options on the table. The Mean calls it well with LP to the south-west but oriented more NW-SE so as likely to move into Europe as to come across the British Isles and hints of height rises to the NE. To conclude, GEM looks an outlier this time and apparently the ECM is on the mild side of its suite so I'm left with the British Isles in a no man's land between LP to the south west and heights to the NE. A new incursion of cold air (though not to the scale of what we have now) can't be ruled out and it may be for all the LP and trough activity the real signal is for heights to rise from the NE and leave us in a SE'ly airflow going into mid month. With uncertainty over events even 72 hours ahead, trying to read the runes to 240 hours is going to be difficult and as I've argued on here over preceding days, the complex conflict between colder and warmer airmasses is far from resolution.

Morning all Here in lowland East London, it's a glorious winter scene this morning. Reminiscent of Sunday December 19th 2010 though not quite the quantity of fallen snow. I'd say 2-3 inches down here. I actually got up in the night (call of nature) and saw the snow falling, heavy and silent, maybe 4am, maybe later. There's something inherently relaxing about watching snow fall - yesterday when the big shower hit us, everybody in my office stopped working and stared out the window. It was extraordinary, almost a primal response to the event. Fine and sunny here and up (!) to -2 but I'm expecting the first of two or maybe three ice days even here in London and they will be the first since March 11th 2013. As to the possibility of more snow today, I don't rule it out later but we'll see.

Ice day on Friday for most:

Evening all Not much to add - in Lowland East London, patches from the afternoon showers remain but it's brutally cold at -3.5c. Tonight's the night I think and expecting some more serious snow in the early hours - mercifully I'm not travelling tomorrow. Good Luck to anyone who has to venture out in the early morning - could be very interesting.

Morning all Plenty of interest in the models this week and through the weekend and plenty still to be resolved in terms of the timing, duration and reach of any milder Atlantic air at this time. I'm looking ahead to the end of next week which is Friday March 9th with my musings and as always kicking off with the ECM 00Z OP at this time: A WNW'ly flow covers the British Isles with a ridge extending from the south over western parts. A complex trough sits to the east and north with a new LP moving up from the SW. A brief more settled spell of weather approaches but with uppers at -4, temperatures remain below average for most. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: Between areas of HP over Greenland and Scandinavia, a shallow complex trough covers north west Europe and out into the Atlantic. One LP centre over Eastern Europe and another far to the SW are bridged by a weak HP ridge from the south. The British Isles is in a calm set up but a weak N'ly covers eastern areas. Uppers remain well below zero (-4 to -8 generally) so temperatures remain on the cold side and wintry showers are possible with snow to altitude. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: A mild SW'ly flow covers the British Isles with LP to the west in the Atlantic and heights to the NE over Scandinavia. Areas of frontal rain and showers interspersed with drier brighter periods for all and temperatures above average. The unsettled theme continues through the rest of FI with areas of LP passing over the British isles bringing spells of rain and brief windy conditions. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: The British Isles is covered by a shallow but broad trough with a second LP centre to the SW. Light or calm conditions continue with uppers -4 generally so wintry showers for many with snow remaining a presence to altitude but rain at lower levels. Further into FI it remains unsettled but with the jet gradually shifting north it becomes milder. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Broad agreement on the dominance of the trough but some differences over positioning and orientation and I would argue a majority of members keep the British Isles on the cold side of the trough at this time. Yes there is a minority of milder solutions where the OP sits but the Control is perhaps more representative of the overall suite at this time. In summary, whatever the twists and turns of the weekend, the battle between the cold and mild air-masses I alluded to yesterday continues. On balance, the cold air-mass remains in charge to the end of next week on most of the output though GFS OP (not surprisingly) is more progressive and goes much milder. The cold we are currently experiencing isn't on the agenda and neither is a settled regime with the trough very much in charge (indicative of MJO 2/3 perhaps and it might have been better had it gone into the CoD as seemed likely at one point). Heights continue to exist over Greenland and Scandinavia but the signals remain muted at this time.

Evening all To respond to the comments about the cold pool, have a look at these from the GFS 12Z Control run: This is where we are with a long pool of cold air stretching right back to Siberia and beyond. Now, to T+42: Note how the chain is snapped to the east of us - the HP over Scandinavia now splits - one part retrogresses to Greenland, the other moves away ESE. There's nothing to maintain the quality of the cold pool until later in the run.

Afternoon all If a week is a long time in politics, it's going to seem like and eternity in here as we watch the tribulations, machinations, projections and confusions of the Atlantic onslaught scheduled for a few days hence. Done and dusted it certainly isn't, "game over for the south", "all rain south of the M4" - bold calls for an event very difficult to predict. The ENS are clearly calling for a slackening of the frigid air - no surprise, 72-96 hours of -10 to -15 uppers in late February is unprecedented and unsustainable so the coldest of the air would ease eventually. Whether that translates to "less cold" rather than "mild" depends on your perspective and perception I suppose but within an overall context of heights to the north and east, cold air isn't likely to be far away and it's quite possible some northern areas will never lose the cold. Anyway, a quick look at some medium-range model output looking today forward to Thursday March 8th: ECM 00Z OP at T+240: A complex evolution and very interesting. Pressure is high to the NE with a new HP developing over Scandinavia and to the far NW with a complex trough in mid-Atlantic and a shallow LP over SE England. Uppers over the country range from just below zero across the south to -6 or -7 over Scotland. It's entirely possible a T+264 chart would see rising pressure to the NE and the LP heading SE (along the line of the trough) toward Iberia. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: Another interesting evolution. LP is centred over southern England and is moving slowly ENE. A chain of shallow LP extends SW from the Azores while pressure if high to the NW with a new HP cell coming off the eastern seaboard. The weather over the British Isles would be unsettled with rain for southern and eastern areas (based on positive uppers) and more wintry conditions further west and especially north. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: A complex trough controls the weather over the British Isles with one centre to the NW of Ireland a new LP moving from the SW. Pressure is higher to the NW and is building via a mid-Atlantic ridge. The British Isles is in 0 to -4 uppers so rain or showers for many with snow restricted to higher ground. Further into FI and the trough pulls away east and south re-introducing colder air even as new Atlantic systems approach from the SW but look set to move SE into Europe. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: A complex trough sits just to the east with two LP centres over Scandinavia (really ?) and a smaller deepening LP to the SW but a transient ridge from Greenland covers the British Isles settling things down and re-introducing colder air with -8 uppers so frosty for most. Further into FI the battle between colder and milder air-masses continue but with warmer air coming across the British Isles from the SW by mid month. The 06Z GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Surprisingly little spread so general agreement on LP dominance over the British Isles with a cold trough setting up as LP is held to the south or east. One or two members try to introduce milder conditions by forcing the trough north in mid-Atlantic but there's not much support for that at this time. In summary, part of the process of winter becoming spring is the battle between the colder and warmer air-masses and the fascinating synoptics and weather these can produce. We are looking at it in microcosm this weekend but it's the dominant feature of the weather stretching through the first third of March. This week's exceptionally frigid air will pass but there's no rapid transition to spring on the cards - rather, any milder incursion (IF it happens) looks to be brief with a strong signal early next week for colder (if not as cold as currently) conditions to return with the mildest temperatures likely next Monday (10-11c in the south so only just on average) and values set to fall from there. Clearly, the further north you are the more likely to remain in the colder air-mass so little chance of an appreciable warm-up in Scotland going forward. Further south it will depend on how the models end up dealing with the initial onslaught on Friday - it may be even if the bulk of the milder air stays to the south there will be a clear slackening of the frigidity in the south but the complexities of judging snow/rain/freezing rain events I'll leave to others at this time. ECM goes strongest on a return of heights over Scandinavia and some of the trough modelling from the other outputs just doesn't look feasible to me. As a final point, it might also be worth considering the accumulations of rain and snow-melt and the possible flooding implications if we get a protracted "battle ground" scenario between the competing air-masses.

Morning all Yes, a dusting/covering here in East London at present after a shower but sky now clearing with some weak sunshine. Will be interested to see how this develops.

So here in Lowland East London I'm with the East Anglia/North London mob. Perhaps it should be East Anglia and North /East London or the "I don't go sarf of the river after midnight, mate!" forum.

Morning all No detailed analysis from me as Mrs Stodge has other plans for my Sunday. Just a few comments on the output I'm seeing this morning: 1) The threat of a west-based negative NAO has always been there - I was talking about it at the beginning of last week. We needed a much stronger HP profile than we are now seeing to firmly the deflect the Atlantic LP more east and south. This is how the 2010 cold spell ended (and in fairness was superbly modelled by GFS which nailed the evolution consistently from T+384 down). 2) Bringitback62-63's excellent summations did take me back to March 2013 when GFS consistently modelled the return of warmer air from the south west for it to fail time and time again. I'm less convinced of the parallels this time but it's worth bearing in mind. 3) Many have agonised in the past week over the exact positioning of the cold pool which varied by 150-200 miles from run to run - now we are agonising over an LP where the scale is similar. As others have said, exact tracks and trajectories won't be clear until Wednesday but the NAVGEM solution would, I suppose, be many people's preference. I wouldn't be surprised to see less cold air cross the country over next weekend. 4) It's unrealistic to expect -12 uppers to be over us for weeks - the coming 72-96 hours will be an exceptional spell for many (and a predictable disappointment for some) but inevitably it couldn't last and even if we had managed a seamless transition to a NE'ly (which never looked likely) there would have been an easing in the frigidity of the air. 5) Once again we are seeing signs of height rises to the east and north-east in far FI - not inconceivable we could have another Scandinavian HP by mid month and certainly one to watch. It's entirely possible while this week's cold may be the most severe, it won't be the last. One thing is certain - more exciting and tense model watching this coming week as there has been in the past fortnight watching the cold spell evolve.

Afternoon all Living in lowland East London, I'd be surprised if this set up doesn't deliver even for me. I'm actually astounded by the notion of three Ice days this week (Wednesday to Friday). I haven't seen one since March 11th 2013 so for London to get three in a row would be something highly unusual. I do agree the unprecedented numbers of January 1987 won't be reached nor Sunday December 19th 2010 (both had maxima of -5) but -1 to -2 in London will mean several degrees lower further out. Snow amounts ? Well, yes, the nature of showers means some will do well and some won't and I suspect there will be some impatience on here Sunday-Monday if the showers don't widely deliver. For once, marginality won't be an issue - the air is chilled, the ground is also cold. My current records (ooer) are 7 inches in 2010 and 6.5 inches in February 2009 and the charts I'm seeing suggest 4-5 inches by next Friday (though some claim the charts are considerable underestimates). My concern is the MSLP remains in the mid 1020s there won't be a lot of moisture to squeeze. As for longevity, still to be resolved I think. It's possible southern England could be the battleground or it might not be and model output has and continues to oscillate between keeping the jet far to the south or bringing the milder air much closer. A difference of 200-300 miles is nothing in hemispheric modelling but it matters a lot to us. The dream of snow fans will be the blizzard from the Channel LP - could happen of course - but marginality would become an issue if some milder air got into the mix but even at -4 uppers over existing snow cover it should be snow at least initially. So, will it be cold ? Yes, absolutely. Do I expect snow in my back yard ? Yes, but amounts still up for grabs. How long does it last ? I think at least 7-10 days and that's as far as comfortable with model forecasting. Could last longer - might not.

Morning all After a day of stellar output, "Wobbly Wednesday" seems a distant memory. Agreement on cold for certain but snowfall, well, that's a different kettle of frozen Birds Eye boil-in-the-bag haddock if you like with a lot of detail on instabilities and troughs to be resolved. The initial snow potential from the east in the form of convective showers has also been joined by the possibility of snow moving up from the south later next week as the Atlantic makes an initial attempt to break down the cold block. For those arguing how hard it is to shift cold blocks, the truth is the January 1987 cold blast faded tamely by the end of that week so nothing is certain. Anyway, I'm more interested in the future than the past and my remit takes me to Monday March 5th this morning. Starting as always with ECM 00Z OP at T+240: With HP over SE Greenland, a very long and complex trough dominates from the mid Atlantic through the British Isles to Scandinavia. The British Isles is on the cold side of that trough and is under a slack ENE'ly flow covered (apart from a Cornish wood shed) by -8 uppers. A new LP is moving NE and you'd fancy it would cross the British Isles from SW to NE so northern and north western areas look likely to remain cold with milder air coming up for other places so a transitional event with snow turning to rain and a fairly rapid thaw. GEM 00Z a the same time: Another complex evolution but not dissimilar to ECM with HP over Greenland and a broad complex trough covering most of North West Europe and Scandinavia. A deepening LP is entering the Bay of Biscay with a SSE'ly flow moving up over the British Isles introducing much milder air which has already reached the woodshed and looks to be extending north. The exact track of the LP is unclear and IF it stays to the south of the British Isles colder air will return from the NE but this is very uncertain at this time. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: A recognisably similar evolution to the other models. LP is in charge with one centre over Eastern Europe and another moving up from the SW but with the trajectory uncertain at this time. The coldest air has moved out of southern and western parts but -8 uppers remain to the north and east. Further into FI and it remains very unsettled - the LP to the SW comes up and crosses the British Isles deepening as it does so rain and snow for many but more LP are waiting and the next feature crosses the couth introducing warmer air but the north remains very cold and likely to see further snow. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Colder than the OP but not dissimilar to the ECM with a slack trough over the British Isles extending SW into the Atlantic and NE into Scandinavia. Uppers remain at -8 or lower so snow showers to all levels. Further into FI and it remains very unsettled with rain for the south but snow likely further north. The GEFS for 00Z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 I'm struck by the agreement - much less spread than has been the case over previous days. The main difference is of course over the trajectory of the LP systems. A majority of the members at this time keep the British Isles on the cold side of the trough, some put us in the battle ground but only two or three have brought the milder weather in by this stage. Moving further and there's a strong signal in the GEFS (albeit not reflected in the OP or Control) for pressure rises to the north or north east as we approach the middle of the month. In summary, there's broad agreement across the medium range that we face a 7-10 day cold spell with some particularly cold air in the middle and end of next week. BY that time, the cold pool has become established over the British Isles but that has itself generated instability and a broad trough from mid Atlantic to Scandinavia. The British Isles sits on the cold side of the trough but with milder Atlantic systems moving up from the SW, the incursion of milder air to the south and west looks likely. The north and east look set to remain cold and it's entirely possible the LP systems will fail to shift the cold pool and simply top up the snow fields in the south in a battleground scenario. At this time it's too early to have any confidence but there are clear signals in the GEFS for new height rises to the north and east further into the month.

There was an inspection on the first day in March 2013 due to frost. They'll obviously put down frost covers but if they get covered in snow it starts becoming an issue. Gold Cup day was lost to snow in 1977 or 1978 as I recall.

This has been modelled at medium range on both GFS yesterday and ECM today. It seems reasonable to suppose the residual cold pool left over Scandinavia will encourage, in the absence of a strong PV or northern jet, the formation of "cold" HP cells analogous to what we see over Greenland. The question is whether these will have any impact on a returning Atlantic. I also noted GFS trying to build HP just to the north of the British Isles on a more southerly tracking jet. I think there will be a return to milder conditions in the south and west in the second week of March but this "could" be transitory IF HP re-asserts to the north or north-east.

To add to my previous, a superb UKMO 00Z run for those wanting a prolonged cold spell: The tilt of the cold airflow to the west of the British Isles holds the Atlantic systems well at bay over the Azores and points further SW. If anything, the storm to the far north of Scandinavia is doing us a huge favour keeping the HP further south and accentuating the E'ly flow. -12 uppers widely across the country by next Wednesday so that suggests an ice day or close to it even in London though the urban heat island might just get above freezing even next Wednesday.

Morning all Was it a case of "Wobbly Wednesday" yesterday as one or two people over-reacted to marginal movements in the models ? It's worth repeating one more time - IF the HP is too far north it might be a lot of snowy fun for some but it would be short-lived snowy fun with the snow falling on Tuesday and melting by Saturday as milder air comes up from the south. The very cold pool is unstable and creating disturbances and LP features which, while good for snow fans, cuts off the cold flow from the east and north. Having the HP further south provides greater insurance the cold will remain locked in with the jet far to the south and with successful retrogression a re-load from the NE in time. So let's see where we are this morning with the medium term output taking us to Sunday March 4th and starting as always with ECM 00Z OP: A very cold and snowy chart. The LP has moved up from Iberia and has become slow moving across SW England but 850s are -4 to -7 across the British Isles so probably snow for most and especially further north and on higher ground. The hope for cold fans is the LP sliding away SE into Europe and returning a cold NE'ly flow. Note also renewed rising heights over Scandinavia. GEM 00Z OP at T+240: Another very cold and snowy chart from a model which has played the cold card strongly throughout the evolution. The Greenland HP ridges SE almost to the Azores holding the jet a very long way south. 850s are below -8 over much of England and there's an actual lobe of vortex with uppers of -20 over Germany which you don't see every day or indeed any day. A slack NNW'ly airflow brings in heavy snow showers to eastern and northern areas with a deepening LP off the east coast of Scotland set to augment that activity as it runs SW. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Something very different. An E'ly flow across the south but with HP to the north centred across Shetland and linking back to heights over Greenland and ridging over Scandinavia and the Baltic. It's still cold with -8 uppers over most of the British Isles but it's going to be dry and hopefully sunny but with severe frosts. Further into FI and a series of shortwaves break down the HP and a westerly flow resumes bringing much milder air back across the British Isles. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: The cold spell is over and mush milder air has already returned back across the British Isles with LP to the west and south west taking over and bringing in unsettled conditions with rain and showers and a rapid thaw of any snow. Further into FI and the cold air makes a return to northern areas with the possibility of a new HP setting up just to the north of Scotland and an E'ly flow returning but still mild in the south for the time being. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: Again, the cold spell is over with a SE'ly flow as LP in the mid-Atlantic takes over and brings rain or showers in from the SW. Further into FI and the British Isles becomes the battleground between the warmer and colder air-masses so northern and eastern areas remain cold and wintry with southern and western areas much milder and of course the potential for severe snowy events across the middle of the country. The GEFS for 00z at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 A growing cluster, it has to be said, of milder options creeping in to the suite but plenty continuing the cold. In summary, GEM and ECM are excellent for cold weather fans but the GFS is a worry and an increasing worry. Yes, it might be over-progressive but it does seem keen to want to re-introduce milder air from the south west and bring the jet back north which the other models don't so it's a stand off and it may be as the UKMO forecast suggests, the south and west will become milder while the north and east stay cold and a battleground develops into March between the competing air-masses.

I'm being slightly provocative, Rob. ECM at T+264 isn't an easy chart to call and you have to hope heights will rise over Scandinavia otherwise it's probably game over as the Atlantic re-asserts. GFS calls time on the cold spell as does JMA which does so incredibly quickly. With UKMO there's no route back for milder air as far as I can see. Maybe GFS is being over-progressive as it often is but JMA takes the cold air so far north the milder air gets in to the south. The thing is everyone today has complained about "southward correction" but ARPEGE is looking like a solid chart for cold if it can get the HP into Greenland. My chart of the day so far is NAVGEM 12Z at T+180: FIM 12Z at the same time close behind: Note how the LP are kept far to the south.

The more I look at the UKMO the more I like it. The T+168 posted by Summer Sun above confirms there's absolutely no route in for milder air from the south or south west. The Atlantic LPs are over the Azores and Portugal. The airflow over the UK looks from the north and we can only speculate on any disturbances in the colder air over Scandinavia. I know a lot of people want deep snow but I'd prefer extended cold so for me UKMO is far superior to GFS and ECM this evening.

Evening all JMA is very disappointing with the cold air gone by Thursday in the south: As for 12Z ECM, it ends up not unlike the morning models with a large complex trough covering much of northern and western Europe. The westward movement of the HP takes us toward west-based negative NAO territory but is useful in stopping the PV remnant setting up in its usual place: The models this morning were hinting strongly at a second pressure rise over Scandinavia well into FI. That ought to happen in the absence of heights anywhere else and IF it does it should prolong the cold for western Europe. The deep cold pool over Scandinavia should promote height rises - it may be we'll have a milder interlude before cold returns or we may not. My view tonight is there is plenty of confusion from as early as this time next week - JMA is one extreme but ECM offers an extended cold period.

Resurrecting this thread for a brief look at Cape Morris Jessup which as we all know is named after the American philanthropist who financed Robert Peary's expedition to Greenland in 1900. Peary believed that Cape Morris Jessup was the most northerly piece of solid land - the North Pole being surrounded by water or ice. In 1980, the DMI or Danmarks Meteorologisk Institut set up a weather station. As you might imagine, it doesn't normally get warm at this time of year at Cape Morris Jessup and yesterday was only the third occasion since 1980 that the temperature moved above freezing for a 24 hour period in February The first was in 2011 and the second last year. http://www.dmi.dk/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder-2018/februar/plusgrader-i-nordgroenland/ The rise in temperature was attributed to a Foehn-type wind which develops when warmer air and an HP set up over the Greenland plateau and draws in a long-fetch SE'ly of warmer air.