stodge

I have to say I was surprised how anticyclonic the GFS 00Z OP and Control were going into next week. To be a bit IMBY-ist (living in lowland East London), there looks to be a strong rise of pressure from Monday. The Control for next Wednesday: OP at the same point: You can bin 850s at this time of year under anticyclonic conditions as an indicator. I suspect the SE (and indeed much of the south) might hang on to colder, clearer conditions with morning frost and fog and day time numbers struggling - it's almost exactly mid winter in terms of day length so there's not a lot of daylight for the Sun to burn off the frost and fog. Rather than look to the east in vain it may be the direction to look is south with rising pressure and while frost and fog isn't what many or indeed most want for Christmas, it would be cold for many and I think looking through the Ensembles it's not an option to be ignored.

To be honest, I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. Cornwall's a little warmer than usual but no one will care much about that - it'll probably be blowing a gale and raining from dawn to dusk. Plenty of cooler than average values out there and perhaps indicative of some blocking. Much of England at or around average values.

Evening all Well, I'm sure this evening's ECM has got some of the more over-anxious contributors rushing for the door. Never mind. It was always likely if not inevitable there would be a resumption of the "normal" winter pattern after the amplification of current times and of course the worst runs always seem to be at the end of the cold spell. So where do we go from here ? As is often the case in life, probably nowhere slowly. A 10-14 day Atlantic dominated period starting from early next week wouldn't surprise and we'd still have two thirds of winter to play with. There are plenty of options knockering (sorry) around in the Ensembles and the idea of rising heights to the NE is far from dead albeit some of the more hopeful charts suggesting a rapid transition may have been overdone. The teleconnections offer plenty of optimism in the longer term but if I've seen my snow for the winter so be it.

Morning all Here in lowland East Ham, we've also had snow. As Mrs Stodge won't let me out to measure the bin, I'd say an inch has settled on the colder surfaces such as cars.Less on the warmer ground at this time. Steady light sleet and snow falling now. Best snow fall since 2013 without question but a long way behind Dec 2010 and Feb 2009 in terms of depth !!

Evening all Looking a deal further ahead, the ECM 12Z at T+240: GEM 12Z OP at the same time: GFS 12Z Control at the same time: GFS 00Z OP at the same time: Variations on a theme if I'm being honest. The GFS Control looks a little progressive but the others all have a hint of rising heights over Scandinavia and while GEM does its usual of overblowing Atlantic LPs, neither GFS OP nor ECM scream a raging zonal Atlantic. Indeed, the Atlantic systems look weak and flabby in contrast to what you'd expect in midwinter. To be fair, a glance at the 12Z Ensembles suggests three likely paths - the Atlantic in charge, pressure rising from the south and pressure rising to the NE. I wouldn't rule any out for the run up to Christmas at this time. Perhaps we'll get a big HP centred right over us and some serious midwinter inversion with fog and severe frost for all.

Morning all Twas Christmas Eve on the Control Run: And all through the Suite Only one creature was stirring A Beast From the East Apologies but it's an evolution we could well see. The orientation of the ridge is more WNW but could we see the Atlantic regime pushed back westwards from this ? It's not entirely without support as others have stated and the most extreme example probably P5: Fans of cold would love it.

Afternoon all Whatever happens in the near future - I'm starting to look at beyond the beyond and as others have noticed and noted, the increasing trend for height rises to the NE. The 06Z OP doesn't really get there but plenty of the members in the ENS do. The truth is the route to very cold often starts from very mild and the transition from an Azores HP dominated airflow from the SW to a Scandinavian HP dominated flow from the east or south east can mean a period of mild or very mild conditions before the colder continental air sets up and moves in. Some of the most notable cold spells have started with the Azores HP moving NE across the British Isles to Scandinavia but they are as rare as hen's teeth and a more likely evolution is or are the two HP system squeezing out any residual trough over the British Isles and creating a single large HP cell which migrates NE and opens the door to the cold ESE flow. We are seeing both the Azores HP re-orient towards western Europe (a positive tilt) and heights building to the far NE but it may take a few days for anything to come into the reliable range and possibly not even until the New Year. Even if and when that happens, while it will guarantee cold, it won't guarantee snow and we will need to see lower pressure to the SW and the classic battle ground scenarios from which large snowfalls can occur. I now expect it to go mild in the week before Christmas and probably through Christmas with a return to colder weather around the New Year.

Morning all More swings on the model outputs in the past 48 hours. A week or so ago, we were "hoping" for a relatively clean evolution from the current cold spell to another Atrctic outbreak and that would come about as the HP currently to the west of the British Isles retreated NW back toward Greenland allowing the next LP to swing ESE from north of Iceland toward Scandinavia. Instead the HP is going to slip past the British Isles to the SE and Atlantic energy from quite a long way south will break through and spill over the British Isles leading to a more protracted milder spell probably lasting much of next week. The Greenland HP tries again to build SE (the ICON 00Z OP run shows this beautifully with its 3-hour steps) and shunts the energy SE out of the British Isles and re-introduces another Northerly incursion. Moving into mid December and frankly chaos reigns and order is in very short supply. I keep seeing hints of a build of HP to the NE - could this be the HP moving down off the Pole - while the alternative looks to be a stormier spell with LP passing close to or over the British Isles. The PV remains disorganised on much of the output though it has to be said a number of the 00Z OP members do seem to be wanting to restore order by returning it to its usual place. GP's as always excellent post yesterday has got me thinking though and if I were looking at cold from mid December onward I'd be looking NE not NW.

Morning all Well, as the cloud breaks and the cold air arrives in London Town, I'm taking a rare glance at the early winter models. Unlike some, I'm not too concerned about the UKMO at this point - it has the cold air locked in for most until Thursday (Friday in the SE) and we then have the transition to next week's Northerly to get past. Signs on the GFS 06Z of a less direct hit than previously but ECM solid this morning - the blast next week hinges on the HP easing away W or WNW while the LP develops to the north of Iceland and swings ESE across the northern isles and into southern Scandinavia opening the door to the Arctic air. We need that sequence of events to occur in the right way at the right time for cold blast 2 to happen. As I say, GFS 06Z OP offers a glancing NNW rather than a direct N'ly while Control looks very similar. To depress some, and it may simply be GFS struggling and reverting to type, I do wonder if come mid December we'll be looking at a more normal pattern. The Aleutian HP moves up over the Pole and it may be that will serve to lower heights over Greenland but that's a very long way off.

Afternoon all I'd argue the one thing we don't want to see is a warming from the Eurasian side as the PV will then consolidate over the Canadian side. More excellent model output this morning for those not looking for blowtorch SW'lies. I do think the final position and orientation of the HP has to be resolved. The GFS 06Z OP holds the HP close to the British isles before retrogression begins while ECM begins retrogression much earlier.

Afternoon all Plenty of options on the table as we move into December. The main difference between the 06Z OP and Control is the former slides the HP to the SE from mid Atlantic allowing a weak Atlantic flow to resume while the Control keeps the HP further north and intensifies the core to 1045 MB over the Alps with a strong ridge back NW over the British Isles so if you want cold, frosty, foggy conditions the Control is one to bank. Oddly enough, and I'm not sure if it's cause or effect, the OP keeps the PV very weak and disorganised while the Control returns very low heights to Greenland and re-invigorates the PV in its usual place. I would say about a third of the Members keep some short of blocking around Greenland even out to T+324 and no sign of the blowtorch with any SW'lies returning PM sourced air.

Evening all More fascinating twists and turns tonight. The 12Z GFS OP is very stormy and unsettled and much less mild than a couple of earlier outings. The Control also sends the jet well to the south keeping the British Isles stormy, unsettled and prone to incursions of PM air. The key seems to be the exact location of the core of LP - the OP and a number of the members take the LP over or just to the east while others hold the LP centre further west bringing in a flow of very mild southwesterlies, The ECM and GEM look very close tonight - both keep the jet a tad further north with stronger heights to our south and active LP crossing the north of the British Isles. Overall, it looks like a stormy final third to November with much more rain and wind than we've seen of late - severe gales or even storm force winds likely for coastal areas and to altitude.

Afternoon all It would be astonishing if we didn't have a zonal episode or a milder episode in the 90 day period from December 1 to February 28. We have done every year. With a Hamleys load of toys being thrown out of every perambulator in the MoD thread every six hours, perhaps more than a touch of perspective is needed otherwise we'll all finish up like a group of pre-pubescents who have been told Mr Harold Styles is in the building. The truth is we speak of the "winters" of 1946-47 (five weeks), 1962-63 (about six weeks) and 2010-11 (really just December 2010 with some of November thrown in) with such reverence because they are so rare. The notion of 12 weeks of continuous cold and winter just doesn't fly. Even January 1987 was little more than a very cold 48 hours in the south. My last memorable cold spell was March 2013 (not even winter) and that was truly remarkable. We had a near ice day in London toward the middle of the month and had the storm which blasted the Channel Islands and the north of France come just a hundred miles further north we might have had a memorable snowfall in southern England. So, if you call a mild and wet winter you're not going to go far wrong most of the time. That being said, it all depends what you want. If getting cold is like throwing a pair of sixes, getting snow is like throwing four sixes. If you are happy with cold, you have options which don't involve snow and especially so if, like me, you live in the south east. A well-placed HP can provide a decent continental flow which keeps us cold and the rest of the British Isles milder. Better, a nice midwinter HP with some inversion which can provide those foggy, frosty midwinter days and even ice days in London with not a grain of snow to be seen. Will we get a memorable spell this winter ? We could well get 7-10 days of severe weather with a bit of snow or fog/frost. My money (and very nice money it is too) will always be on February - the absolute gold star would be 4-6 weeks of cold for the north with occasional milder incursions into the south (nice southerly jet and serious northern blocking required). And what if we get it ? Like all addicts, the cold/snow brigade will a) be hunting the breakdown in the model output and b) as soon as the last flake of snow melts, they'll be clamouring for a repeat.

Morning all It's far too early in the year for me to get too interested in the models - ask me again in mid January. Skimming the 00Z GFS Ensembles at T+240, a healthy majority kept some cold or very cold air over the British Isles. The possibility of several days of cold anticyclonic weather isn't without a lot of appeal and cold without snow is still cold at the end of the day. ECM hints at retrogression but it's so far removed from the GFS this morning it's like a chalk-like substance encountering some camembert. Perhaps worth noting the considerable intra-run variation still apparent. The 6Z OP is very different, keeping the jet well to the south in a classic west-based negative NAO. That is in itself a rarity for late autumn in my experience. It still seems probable the PV will rev up and by the end of the month it could look quite stormy. Those expecting 90 days of storm force easterlies and -20 Uppers are going to be disappointed (again) it would seem.

Morning all I've no specific forecast to offer but some signs and times I always look for: 3rd Week November: For some reason we often get a colder snap or spell around this time. This is our first taste of something more wintry but for the south it's more in terms of frost or fog rather than snow. 1st Week December: Often very mild and wet. Not stormy as such but a long fetch SW'ly and temperatures well into double figures. Mid December: Another brief cold/frosty interlude before a generally milder run up to Christmas. Late December: Post Christmas but before New Year I look for another colder spell with snow a real prospect for much of the country. The other option is an anticyclonic spell of frost and fog under an inversion. Quite possible for London to have an ice day under such a set up. Early-Mid January: The cold spell breaks at or just after New Year and much of early January is quite mild. My birthday is on the 15th and I have rarely seen snow. Late January-Mid February: The coldest part of the winter and the most likely to get snow. If it doesn't happen then look for a late cold blast toward the end of February and into March. Late February: Contrasting. If we've had cold already, it will be the first signs of the coming of spring but if it's been a relatively mild winter, we can have a late and quite severe cold snap with transient March snow not at all uncommon even further south.

Morning all One of the problems with the set up consistently modelled by GFS is, as we've seen in previous winters, the Azores HP is displaced NE toward the SW approaches. The trough is aligned NW-SE but to the east of the British Isles so we get occasional incursions of PM sourced air but, to be fair, Europe and especially Eastern Europe gets colder. The HP is being pushed north by small ex-tropical shortwaves which move north toward the Azores. Occasionally, the HP tries to retrograde WNW but the strength of the jet prevents that and the HP quickly returns to its "home".

Morning all As we're only 2/3 of the way through autumn it seems strange to be fixating on winter. The morning's charts are mostly fairly benign especially for the south - UKMO makes a bit more of next weekend's colder incursion than 00Z GFS but HP soon returns from the SW. GFS seems keen to have the Azores HP in its usual November position - midway between the Azores and Ireland - keeping us in a mild run of WNW air. ECM continues to play with heights to the east and north east but not very convincingly it has to be said and, like GEM, plays with shortwaves in the Atlantic giving as rather messy overview by the second week of next month. As usual, GFS OP FI toys with weakening or displacing the PV but this is a trick it often plays and rarely verifies. The PV Looks to be setting up as you would expect at this time but it's very early days.

To be honest, the 06Z OP continues to pique my interest. The core of the HP remains well to the NW of the Azores even in far FI while the jet ridges round the mid-Atlantic HP and then SE over the British Isles. What we aren't looking it is a long spell of tropical maritime air sourced from the Canaries or points further south or south west. The airflow is more west or even WNW at times so from south Greenland so a more seasonal temperature profile than in previous years for the first third of November. It's also worth noting no strong signal for cyclogenesis with the Atlantic not overly strong so no autumnal storms at this stage - indeed, quite benign in the next week and we might see a bit more fog than we've had in previous years. All in all, at this stage, a more "typical" early November. It means nothing for the rest of winter.

Morning all A rare visit from me this time of the year. Moving through the GFS 00Z, ECM 00Z and GEM 00Z OP runs I see plenty of agreement for a fairly benign period through most of the next week but with an increasing trend for the trough to slip SE toward us and put us in what would be a chilly WNW'ly flow into November. Temperatures in that flow would be average at best and cold at worst with frosts where winds do fall light. Beyond that and what I don't see yet is a "classic" draw of long-fetch SW'lys from the tropical Atlantic. GFS OP into FI tries to drop the trough through the British Isles and build heights behind it but all this is a long way off. We often see HP close to the UK during November - sometimes it hovers to the SW for a long period but this year there are hints (no more than that) of a less stable position.

As an aside. some very high temperatures recorded in France and Spain today. Vichy currently top at 29.4c according to Meteociel but a number of stations above 30c. Anyone know what the October temperature record for France is - would imagine 32-34c somewhere sometime (probably down south) ?

Afternoon all One of the most interesting days weather-wise for some while. I travelled from East Ham to Leatherhead for a meeting so my weather day was as follows: 9am: Looks like another fine and sunny day, more like summer than mid-autumn. There is a haze but the Sun is out and the temperature is rising sharply. 11.30am: Left for Leatherhead. Fine and very warm with temperatures at 23c. Slight smell of smoke in the air at Plaistow but no source. 1.20pm: Arrived at Leatherhead. Again, more smoke in the air and increasingly cloud, wind and haze. 2.45pm: During meeting, all remarked on increasing darkness - reminiscent of a summer thuinderstorm buty passed after 30 minutes to be replaced by haze. 4pm: Left for home - cooler, windier conditions but with continuing high level haze making the day seem "dark". 5.30pm: Walking home from East Ham - to the East, more gloom but to the west, increasingly bright conditions with sunshine returning creating a strange light profile. I can now see the clearance coming from the west with a SSW'ly flow behind it. Comments - one or two people got very excited about high temperatures and sunshine (talk of 25-26c widely) but it's often the case with such a long-fetch southerly that we pick up Saharan dust and this was magnified by the strength of Ophelia and the flow it created. Throw in some smoke from Portugal and the hopes of very high temperatures were thwarted. Will this be the last day above 20c until next spring ? We'll see.

Well, indeed, and heights over Greenland or to the NE mean little at this time of year apart from the signal (perhaps) of a weak Atlantic. The GFS has played this trough disruption on a lot of the recent OP output so I'm just wondering if, in the absence of anything tropical, the signal is for the Atlantic to weaken. The 06Z OP FI NH profile isn't without interest with much warmer air where we would expect our friend the PV to be but as others have said elsewhere, it's still very early days and of little import for future seasonal developments.

Morning all It is indeed fascinating to see TS Ophelia's impact on the synoptic development. We've had ex-hurricanes swing past Ireland before but these have usually travelled across the Atlantic. This one is unusual given its origin and lifecycle. It does look as though it will swing NNW past the west Irish coast but it has the effect as it passes north of invigorating the Atlantic push east so the troughs break down the Azores HP and get into and (more significantly) the British Isles. I don't see it coming far enough east to affect the British Isles in all honesty though, as others have said, it wouldn't take much for Ireland to be in the firing line. The latter stages of 06Z FI take us into a much cooler trend moving into the last third of October and, not for the first time, we see the trough disrupt close to the British Isles with the usual tease of northern heights up and over the Pole (which we know will come to nothing, don't we ?)

The latest NHC guidance suggests after its loop in the Atlantic, Jose will strengthen and move WNW. It doesn't look as though the areas hit by Irma would be hit again but other parts of the Eastern Seaboard would be under threat. It's certainly one to watch for the weekend and early next week.

Morning all The aspect I'm struggling with is the huge divergence in MSLP across the models. GFS is still going sub-900 MB as Irma approaches Miami while GEM has the storm at 970 MB which is an enormous difference. ECM has Irma in the 930s which makes more sense given the current data suggesting more a high Cat 4 than a Cat 5 at this time.