tight isobar

Indeed there is some explosive estuary- formats 'possible'!!!!.. @streamer. Lots going on...

Just regarding the met.. Our region contains some of the highest population counts in the uk...2 add the capital...so plenty of caution on there part as leading forecasters. This will go down 2 the wire!.. @nowcast. @ upgraded/ potential

Yes m8 sadly looks like a complete miss there!!..

As per the ASL-scale coming into play. 140/150 scale looks very decent as per higher accumulation.. As 4 any1 writting off kents chances are madness..i expect kent/parts essex 2 come into the force firing line..as the system takes a pivot..and we get an undertuck of nor-easterlys... All looks well...

Some in the mod-thread are desperatly looking for a breakdown in our regions chances from this evening. Ignore them!.. Alls lining up fairly well as we gain.. And an' Amber warning will likely extend in 2 parts of the region later...as the feature takes hold.. And the dreaded m4 corridor- looks to be overiden...(4 ONCE) All 2 play 4...and indeed some WILL DO BETTER THAN OTHERS...that part is 1 of the best bits...as we lock on to the radar.

As some accused me of posting the gfs precip rates 'as selected data'.. The same can maybe - be said on the otherside of the coin...via ICON?!

M8 ..your in liphook.. Not a prayer it will slip -south- of you!!. Your in a decent plot. And the extent will be a far, more northerly extent. And thats also inclusive of precip rates! A lot of reverse psychology in here !!!!

The main focus point is...as its sweeps into the southwest...then tracks north-eastwards...as it pivots..so 2 it expands..as it reverts on the former trak..thus becomes patchy in nature... That though after dumping some decent amounts in selected locations... Edit- and has signs of pep tmoz afternoon, along far southern counties../including factions of the south west

Away from east anglia perhaps!?.. Most of the region looks in the middle web....

Adjust that a little.. Widely 5/10 cms.

Upcoming snow event...tonight/tmoz.. Sweetspots= london into home counties- arming into mid southern wales... Some impactual accums in these areas. Those would be a pretty solid punt now.

Very tasty.

Ecm 00z.. Signal sniffing again.. Going the way of yesterdays 6z gfs.. Watch this become a solid feature! @noted responces @backloaded winter

With a pccp- and downwell- and knock on effects... Its a normal base plate 4 models 2 note... a bullish revert to format!!!.. @zonal tenplate. @resort 2 default. Then a reflect in the opposite side of the coin. Its frustraiting, when some are so steadfast...yet do not really know the science/meteorlogical-balance. And take things as written on the wall..b4 MR janitor has even gotten he's bleach- and jetwash out of the van- to blow away the shameless graffiti! Was going to post to highlight- that feb-is going to be (overall) the winter smasher...but i'll refrain 4 a tad longer... To yet bk things even more solid!

The gradients shout for that.. A 70/100mile shunt-northwards... But thats the ABSOLUTE limit. On this 1. Edit i'll fill my boots.. Im in the camp 4 'perhaps' the best bits.

Tbf-the ssw has been a little of a delayed deport..(in part).. But i'll stake..the ramifications 4 our part will soon be felt.. Its a wait n, win m8..trust me.. More later

Laugh all ya like..the ecm is a big step on a small scale in the wanted direct.. And we can only gain...going on from this.. I'll leave the nor-hem synops out 4 now.. But also decent....

Ecm 12z lining up huge scandi block !!??

Spring???? Check the sourcing... That WOULDNT feel like spring!!!

Nope..

Gfs..wants to turn snow bk 2 rain southern coastal counties..but a few miles inland..the snow machine gets going... Midlands south...with a grade of slightly warmer air backing in under the feature..already mentioned areas

And theres no immediate panic...coz- it all kicks off on 31st feb !!!

Your clearly even more crackers than me -me old pal...

A clear 'outlier'.. 6z @beast.. But for me a twitch in the correct-around-about direct.. And watch for similar (although perhaps slightly weaker) signals as we gain and unfold.

This is difficult... But anyway.. Im personaly loving this as my fascination with iso baric strucure /influence is in full play... We have @best a weak mlb-with forcing from the atmospheres obvious wanting of normality.. In a rapid nutshell..whether some are keen for gradients of forming/incoming LP-SYSTEMS and 4 want..in such as we are.. the forcing southwards- is almost certain.. Ive tryed hard to refrain from these notiins 4 accused of southerly 'bias'..but the truth is geostrophic winds will ONLY follow 1-format (ultimately)..and we are in a near perfect position 4 ref!.. Contour/isobars..are a sperate show.. And especialy on a microscale.. Anyway.. with a feabile mlb..and downward forces..(as atm).. Systems aiming 4 the uk..are hit and fall!!.. And will bounce- by way of nature on a southerly track... Its the middle leading- that needs scope!! However interstingly thurs/fri..could be a rare split incur...and of miniscule system part...on the gradient scale...and with overheads...A LOT BETTER than this eve.. A massive event..could show its hand 'snow-wise'.. On a large scale situ ..4 mass uk.. Although again...no bias...but southerly tracking should be both noted/excepted.. And should that intail..god bless those areas.. BURIED!!..