tight isobar

As @Steve Murr @allseasons si. Point.. We going to have some classic wave 3 activity throughout coming data.. And a tri strapped polar vortex.. Then I'd expect a clear splitting via momentum... With hopefully..a Sharp grade of right side settlement!!!

Well it is... @Nino e3.4.= Balancing!!! With tropical overide...in exactly where I wanna see it.. #ssta

Sst...And Nino index.. Maybe we'll worthy coming back to these in 2/3 weeks time..As they stand atm...for reference. @wave drama @airmass infer!! #Although ENSO neautral!!!.

Be good to see a similar evolution over coming runs..- cross set-= With that big low phrasing and syphoning the energy from that by then probable seaboard explosion.. Via transfer of vortice energy into the Atlantic.. While all the time we have gain...And yet further on the north eastern side of the hem... There's -as per our visions of intrest..@Canada @seaboard ejection. Let's pull the wall down this year!!!

It can blow up all it wants in the mid Atlantic...the overheads into the longer term appear to be doing the damage...I'd take short term pain...for longer term gain...anyday...'especially' late October/-early November.

With such two..on two ridges punching for freedom.@Pacific./@Atlantic domains.. And large lobe vortex looking for residential status @Siberia.. I'm almost feeling a tad sorry for the pv's dominant sourcing.. Yet smiling with my own personal want of gain!! It's a real blow for the upper layers...And there usual points of slot!!!.. It's truly a good time for these exactions right on cue too!!! Edit even a minamal upcoming ssw/strat heat increase...will make for an exception!!.. As things stand... Yet to be noted!?!

Yeah...that's correct ..

Just very quickly...where is shortwave steve!???

Jet profile...as we enter November! I've snapped the stills for purpose.. As Atlantic warmth gets ommphed into Greenland...And into the pole.. With the purposed arching jet around the block... Anyone remember how we got started 2010...with similar modelling around this- point beginning! !!!!!

A sight for the eyes indeed..And we are now into November...a much more feasible part for interest!! And even with the given profile/synop.. We could be seriously talking much more notable upper air spreads...making in roads...into north western Europe!! It's all so tempting looking right now!!!!

Let's be brutally honest.. I'm quite sure most knew...at such a stage...And cliff like set up snow was 'never' going to be an issue..away from the highest elevation s.. Anyway...I cannot help but keep thinking...this will be the season of the cut through chanel low!! #just a hunch^^^ It's distracting me 'somewhat'= With given past n'present!!.. Synoptics/evolution s.

And lastly for 'the moment'.. Running through gfs 500 geo pots.. It's not a rocket scientist..to decipher the notions of probably blocking formats....along with the sync of cold leakage!!.. Into the upper /mid latts..

To-add..upper dynamics..also painting a favourable picture.... In terms of exaction of pressure points... And cold incurance.. We are as it stands....in a good place!!! Even as we stride into the new month (November)= @top snap

Now here we are....that mean-continues to grab a stranglehold of its members...dragging them down like the nagging wife..on the ill fated husband!!! And that eye catching cold pool deepens-and expands!! So the crucial overall viewing Must be.. Warm air advection to the north western quadrant!!=and into the polar points!!!!

Ecm.. Gonna Chuck in the 'vents here also'= As this feature is miss-looked. The by standing momentum ..is one of revesre..And relax! With regard to waa (warm air advection)- into higher lattitudes. It's likely going to be a decent rolling sequence...as the polar vortex...builds...then busts... Take these snaps...as starting pistol!! Gain is almost eye watering...as for pact/mother lobe-limpet...non establishment this season!!! Later post ....Will note my thinking/-co-ordinates!!!

Certainly.. These are the sort of ens...we should be looking for...in both style...And trend-when looking for a transfer to cold/colder... And the trend is fitting!!! And as mentioned.. The 6z gfs -raw-.. Looks a classic off the path suite!!...as reflected in its ensembles

With such spread...they are clearly wrong as things stand... It's a case for the raws...b4 the deciphering with regards to the ensembles atm!!= Look for them before ens catch up. Incidentally...this morning's ec.. Already looks like its going for the split...or tri ripped polar vortex...latter in the run !!!???

The gfs "is always" .. Of issue at this point!!!.. With the new data impossed...let's see how it performs...on this very occasion.. And as per... Of course.. the battle between ec/gfs. .always a fascinating one....

Yes.. The ens belly dropping.. As they not the pressure rises... And all in the right places.. And the mean looking to take more and more members as we evolve.. As supports get further to grips....with the very likely pattern changes!!!!.. Fun n' games season..."OPEN"!!!!!

Howdy!!= The transient period is well underway.... And the ens..and graphics are of note. Especially the polar/and flow process!.. Some stark eye catching graphics/synoptics as we jog...the begin to run into winter... The alignment that the models are getting a 'pointer' on fill one with great hope. With almost perfect atmospheric evolutionary placings as we get going!!. And with that eye catching developing cold lake of north-eastern pooling perhaps taking a hold just as the north western heat transfer-starts track..... An-early start to the season...with something of note.... Very much gaining!!!= Keep watching!!!!!

Great analysis. And 'certainly'.. We need 'imo' (as well).. To look at pole emphasis. And the guide tool now.. For a more probable-forecast. And solar. And axis phasing!. Things are 'a' changing'.. #cooling phase #natural cycle!!!

And nearer terminology!!.. A good representation.. Of the decline. And Scandinavia COOLING....

Andd. . It's high time to fall off that now cracked summer fence!!! I can't remember tbh being quite so exited by the very early prog/early notions sliding into the vastness/madness..of our deceiptful/-sometimes -comical winter months!! A pretty basic 1 for starts. But my eye is taken via many factors as we slowly roll in.. But the immediate shunt..is the northern hemisphere snow forms. Taking the oceanic stills and likely formats as we progress.. The the evolving 'likely' strains on pressure squeeze into the upper/higher latts..it's certainly spiking early interest!!. In simple terms 'right NOW'.. The extent...And cover formats will hold a high sign for us/those seeking early preference to 'perhaps' a good shape going IN!! Large scale missing except on the previous format subject-2018-.. Yet already the minamal raise!! And certainly an-earmarked upage on a northern eatern early impact!!!.. Now that is-what ya want to be seeing..in regards to latter nw blocking format.. And most definitely... For encouraging N/N/E polar incursions... Not going into other forms..ie upper layer influences..Just yet..but.. It's definitely...a roller...early on this 1!!!!!

@balanced. And as the jamtec previous update .that allowingly got flagged for it preferred cold early northern hemisphere prognosis.. It also balances pretty well on overscale!.ie 3/6 months shouting..so I do await it's updated format with eagerness.. And I'm not getting into the record breaking layer heating @the bottom pole...until we head a little further in!!!!!

Last months jam(update)- mirrors the Lrf mod in question! .(previously).. I await the update with a degree of uncertainty! .. But I'm sure the goliath southern hem ssw ..WILL have an impact on modeling through out...-including_northern hemisphere exacting.. This is gonna be an interesting month or SO!!!!