tight isobar

Apart from the osolation signiture...thats a banging snap... But its the ec46= So take it howya will!!!

Feb... I wouldn't expect there to be...it mimics/momentum lag... It's kiss chase.... But who's gonna end up with lipstick...or egg on there bonce... .. I'm confident in my assumption..and I'll either stand...or die by em.. Over to the afternoon/evening raws

Just to add.. This being a format I'd expect in the given state.. But go as far to say the two lobes...being a draw and quater...with Siberian being more stark...and as again the Canadian in disolve of displaying....as we gain.

As for the + NAO sync...It's modelled...but not locked in..or as a given state!.. Again let's watch the 12z raws unravel...

It started 7 days ago @Pacific arm! Yet taking the layers and related data on that...the pressure is now well and truly on...with regards to dissolve/transfer!! We should see a beckoning of an upward modelled Siberian lobe...as the tightening begins.. I'm sure the 12z will start to note this...

Watch for the link..@Pacific pump...@Greenland !!!.@possibly. I refrained from analysis last night..and with reason. The squeeze on the tpv..and continued alliance of the Pacific punch...is notable in syphon of the Canadian/Alaskan lobe...today's the turn day !!!

....and the forementioned 'forecast'.. is open for both 're-Analysis/change in structures.. Believe me. I'll chuck some formats and deciphering Analysis myself later also.. I'm somewhat stunned by the pulling of teeth and doom tbh. And I hope I can shed some light on that firm belief!! We are @wobble- gate as things stand..and a stark contrast awaits...imo. We'll leave that here.....'>for now<.

Agree..I must be viewing utterly different data!!!! Jeez...It's all primmed...just ironing out the wrinkles..=the bowling ball lp..Will continue to be modeled in different aspects over coming two days...which in turn could well allow a wider doorway at the greeny part...then it's a whole other evolution..around 144 onwards!!

I've counted 8/9 probable snow events for the UK as a whole in the 6z start-finish.. Most of a transitional nature..but I'm highlighting for note...that brutal cold isn't necessarily the be ALL for that notion.. Not to say as we are in somewhat of a stalemate juncture atm via modelling...that deep/notable cold isn't an option..dynamics/diagnostics...can and will change. And certainly there is a case for that...even as where we currently are/stand... Over to the supports...and next suites....keep em coming

This should be back on track!!!.. Are we gonna end on a high note....and perhaps a tri-vortex... And an' ample classic 3way block format.. 1521519064_gfs1444thdec19.webp

I'll go complete against that notion..with ensemble support too.. And have the 00z reliable suite upping the anti... We shall but see !?

Gfs 18z completey fine.. Not all aspects of blocking are going to be eye catching run..2run.. And that's fully expected..the profile/genre remains!!=@arctic outbreak. And tonight's top of the pack 00z..Will I'm sure hold further interest to say the least...

Okay...so we have 500 geopot-height evaluation/upper/thermo/ dynamics./mslp... Icon-global-and temp plots.. All singing from the same hyme sheet (in a nutshell.. It's a variable polar maritime slide....into a probable notable arctic incursion... With a very eye catching seaboard block...in the Pacific sector!!. Then with momentum..and engage...literally the polar gates open! With a broad cross conclusion of all dynamics-thus data working in harmony for evolution of the wanted.. An exiting few-days on the cards...and expect the usual model wobbles... However again..It's all in ALL...preety rock solid looking for our first real polar outbreak.....the ride is about to start!! Edit-click snaps for WANT of all above...ie which plot/snaps are which......

A broader view... Nowt wrong with them tbh!!

Just trawling through supports geopotentials/ensembles/.. It's starting to look preety rock solid... I'll chuck up some data and post later this evening.. What launguage would ya prefer !!?

Kinky isobars... In a long polar flow... One of the most conceivible shouts for impactual snow showers!!! @ecm 12z

UK bathed in reasonable -upper airs... And you have to feel with such evolvement....these could prove yet more fruitful...as we gain!!!

Ecm going for wrap of heights.... What viewing!!. With the concept of bringing those craved deeper uppers!!!= Winters here!!!!!

Neat profile... And the Pacific punch adding the flavour!!.. A good mid range ecm with plenty of opportunities..and half decent placements..and a shift looking on for scandi also!!

How some will likely be after that 12z run.. Sorry...couldn't resist..and I think a little light heartedness needed at times in ere!

It's quite epic via gfs 12z..which comes 2nd in verification in sister runs.. And let's face it we've been saying minimal wedge placement..and cell exactions mean possible major uturn in forecast perplexion.. So it's possibly as right as it is WRONG. Great evolution...and why not indeed... not a million miles from some embarrasing *LRFs... Again..'perhaps'!!

There actually not bad at all..in heading in the correct direction..@ensembles As for Euro temp plots...they are even more persuasive.. @Scandinavian deepening...and hints if we get wedge of heights favourable...then an -outbreak of Siberian/via Scandinavian pulse...are beginning to look intriguing!!! @middle plot for analysis!! <<

Yes..that Pacific arm-certainly holding the vortex at the eastern hem quadrant..and allowing better width of amp-in the Atlantic..and point tip Greenland!= The upstream is also appearing as more fruitful given developing synoptics!.. And even a semi-Siberian outbreak starts further possible roading into our part due to evolving developments.. Many pluses_as there were originally....though they seem to be gaining....not dispersing!.. What's not to like.... And my earmark are still firmly for around 9/10..and fully expect model catch up on/around these dates..

A great snap this early in proceedings.. With a MLB..and a notable outbreak...as per-mentioned...we'd have given our grandmothers away in many times past for such synoptics this early on....let alone it coming to fruition!!!!

Still plenty to get the proverbial teeth into. With ample room for both PM shots...and even possible arctic outbreak.. As resolve and diagnostics are still of deciphering in our maritime realms!. A true pull back and await from around 9/10december.. With momentum of minimum alignment via both waa and pressure points are resolved.. Spreads are also of want and wait... But any notable mild is certainly off the table... So cool at least...with again amicable shout for some more notable changes in the hunt for more talkative COLD exactions!!!= Please transfer in whatever launguage you want to view this post in also!!! And calm down...It's only December the 1st..