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Everything posted by tight isobar
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Definitely @mikepoole Trawling through upper/lower dynamical data...the sway Is most certainly on... I feel some GREAT modelling viewing on on the doorstep...And more importantly....some eventual gains overhead!- @in real time -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ignore button..check. Simple posting for the highly strung- check !!! A definitive sway to a 'perhaps'- notable outbreak at months end. And quickly...simply atm. The oscillation/blocking traits are certainly aligned more favourable, as we approach the upper mentioned period ^^^.. Favourable arming/waa...around the Greenland junction notched up as we gain. And with momentum CAA also becoming a favourable solution into the NW-Euro part. Edit:=hope this wasn't of too much gibberish....for some!!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I appologise. Pre-Christmas..ie..the sync into the new month..(December).. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On behalf of ME.. Where is your issue!!-= The raws are unable atm to decipher pressure sequence.. And momentum notches.. Where we could finish ...on a completely zonal plate...or have minimum adjustment of placement...to exact a polar profile that fits with want any cold chaser requires... Or not!!. Explain your non comprehend!??????? Edit:= 3 basic snaps of raw dat...via gfs. Already my previous should be summed up... As the deciphering points!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So let's chill...(no pun intended)= ¿ and await ecm take on miss match/compare. Then take ensemble plots .. And look at the picture. I'm sure we are on course and verge now of the likely pre Christmas prognosis!!! And it's as tight as it gets!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As per...we have a definitive..profile.. But an oscillation problem!= And a pact of missed matched format. And the Pacific quadrant and phasing is an issue..on upstream dynamics!. The p-points are good...though not good enough! We are however on cusp of resolve/resolution!!= Let's see WHAT way the road slides!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed on face values...a quick look it's ok.. Delve deeper into the 216/240... It could ho awfully wrong there after!!= Or REALLY well.. Blocking...great...oscillation...a worry !!! @12z ecm edit:= a worthy snap...of cold expansion + possibly- migration as we head to the end of the month...as per....block/pressure format s...Will be foremost....in those developments.... -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Going on the 'cut dynamics'= Easter/western seaboard occurs... And northern hemisphere shots.. Are to say 'wondering/potentialy loaded is an Understatement!!! This is a west based oscillation that has co-dee freindship for north west europe.. And these are as obviously referred synoptics. If you block you choc... And sweet tooth heaven has surely got chocolate dripping @us.. Again..it's relax..replenish.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Rossby wave??= The continue of circular height format @pole continue to be the sleeve on the shirt..that doesn't fit!!! And the dig on the middle layer is of complete aid. Any minimum 10 hpa Bunsen.. Will just aid-again.. Coupling is not of questions.. As its all transfer and provide!= And I...4 one can see a probable LRF rip...and change from the larger networks....in the near term!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
An, uninspired ec I heard you say... However remember if this was the only model showing its 12z synoptics..and all other raws ...showing pancake zonality....you'd be salivating at future possibilities/prospects!!!= Don't get to spoiled...too soon!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nowt wrong with ecm Need some more barreling Iberian stabilizers such as.. The rest is unwinding nicely.. The northern hemisphere synoptics...likely speaking for themselves...as we get latter into the 12 run.. Some KABOOM charts not far away now..me thinks.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The trop..polar vortex is under mash-mode!!=or so some latter frame outs would have it...that pac-ridge..is of relax state...as the eb..n'flow into polar plots...continue there desired synoptics.. Once again...thats some pattern emerging..n-hemisphercaly!!! Let's get it loaded...then look for placement exaction... Then await the spill!!!.....@perhaps. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Pac ridge..has been for the last few years...an excitement for early signals.. And had 'ultimate' been the downplaying signal when angular momentum-}and breach overriding of wave activities.. However this term there are many more spaners..in the clockwise momentum. And signal breach that coincide with relapse and positivity at the placement formats...whereas previous...these have been counter synced. =even a bypass warming layer event -visible @10 hpa..is a reference to execute of the TPV.. Were In a different ball park here.... And LRF cast/models...are imo behind the phase...and that may soon rear.. in exaction!!! So in the meantime...decipher of raw data...imo is advisable!!! Remember...#@fill..then @drain.. #Large lobe vortex... The feeding machine...I said this last season..and was proved incorrectly....I'm confident much moreso...this 1 !!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah..layer warmth @Eurasia.. And an-operantional stomping latter frames.. Tbh..tricky to think of better dynamics...as we roll forward!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A brief snap of 500 geo pots..b4 the 12z get deeper... And ya wouldn't be kicking these out of the meteorological/weather bed...as we delve deeper into November!!=some crackers emerging... Edit:=and the Scandinavian pressure process...beginning to take pride of place!!! @eye-catching-indeed. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed..and that a minor concern to say the least..such ring micro scale geographical-dynamics are fraught.... Anyway nice oscillation via 18z.. With YET again.. Some cracking n-hem graphics on show! -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep..but the.... highlighted forms of flux and pressure grades are apparent!!=@starkly!!! Take ya pick what way ya want your cold to come from!!!...@possibly -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ecm ends of synoptical high note.. And as again...that pooling looks ripe and perhaps prime!!! Resolve of annomaly blocking formats the only real worry...although atm it's looking trough primmed for our shores!= and any reform of the usual limpet base for the vortex...@Canada plot...looks to possibly be a short affair...with bundles of room for drain and syphon!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
tight isobar replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As already well highlighted.. Some notable arming into the pole as we move through.. And it's a two phaser...as eyes continue-to cast to the north east as the expanse of ever building cold 'grows'... Again some eye candy profiles on hand....and a continuation of ever growing catchy synoptics!!! The ecm will be an' interesting watch...as this likely evolution. Of blocking and placements unwrap!!! An interesting mid/late November....to say the least...one would suspect! -
Model Output Discussion - early October
tight isobar replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Underpin..on this early prognostic snap.. 'However'.. It's the latter ones..hat may catch the eyes!!!= I'm eating..And drinking...-in abundance I hasten to add atm-= So will sing my song on here later... Have a good afternoon -
Model Output Discussion - early October
tight isobar replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Turning the cup "upside down". In switch to polar emphasis.. And drip-too-layer consequences!! And also my already mentioned (previous) artctic vortex awakening...then die!! Yo add quickly...then on more mirror (micro scales(=,wrapped height formats..from the Scandinavia scope/too- the Greenland ones... It's all on course...but to busy to exact on .....EXACTING.. But will later !!!.. Also quickly my past notions of undercutting/chanel low season... Will be back this evening.. Models are engaging!!!... And enlightening! -
Model Output Discussion - early October
tight isobar replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes @laggedlagged.. But the influence is there.. And the NAO..is imo falling short in notion atm.. But a stark contrast surely "awaits"= No split line!!! -
Model Output Discussion - early October
tight isobar replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Last 1 for tonight.. Thank #### they said!! I'm going for the clean wrap mid November.. Greenland shuttle..With a noted Scandinavia block... And putting ourselves and the low countries into the trough.. And or an-arche...of Siberian influence... Early I know.. But I'm nailing my coulours now!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - early October
tight isobar replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Without getting into...run 2 run 'hypodrive'.. The evolutions are talking themselves up.. With already a noted spike-in relax....And release of the more fridged upper thermo.. As momentum..And angle increase the atrifact for the desired effect... November 'could' be on a level of what many didn't 'antisipate'!!!.. Keep watching!!! -
Model Output Discussion - early October
tight isobar replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The devils work.. In 6's.. @three wave depicted 3 points of ridging..And =3 points of troughing! On raw materials...the polar vortex..needs the Lord on its side.. Or it for-crucifixion!!=