tight isobar

Now if your looking for angular momentum along with vortex main lobe adjustment... then throw in wave activity.... and upper layer forwarding.... then alignment of a core split then the ecm is clearly showing the options. A strange winter that I feel will yet get stranger with a whole array of short surprises!!!!

Even the 18z gods should certainly offer up a transition polar vortex as waves take action and we gain into the pole. With projected deciphering a clear vortexual split is a real possibility! As heights are of a forcing impact.@ Scandinavia and localised-geographic points.

The cold is waiting in the shelf... so any height transition will be just a switch mode it's fold then cold if you gain and get to the current formats mentioned! It's Hooray at the penny arcade afterwards

The 850 zonals look to be in reasonable transition also . Although some will likely quote the anomalies as starkly against. But they will be wrong!

Well with wave activity and an mjo-projected stamp. We are indeed looking at a north eastern block format some can shoot it down as a model miss-synoptic but all elements/dynamics are now firmly in place... and a wave breaker into the vortex is a clear clear option . And I mentioned back in November that the Pacific punching will have to soon be a player for gain..... and it is! So even most raw outs will highly likely start a stern notion of this format from here on !!!!then we look to bottled dynamic for cold incursion. January is not looking lost by a long way!!!!

Well I did have an incline that things were indeed ready for a turning point and I'm not let down by that notion! Some real data to get ya teeth into this morning as we gain. And the temp plots are by far the best yet as we move into January. And pronounced blocking appears again with some notable 2m temp plots to boot..... has the Real winter ride now begun?!? ... probably imo!!!! Temp plot 500 geo-potential 2m,s

Well some crumbs as we move into the new year!!! And navgem (lol) geo pick of the bunch moving forward with aligned heights favoured and a reasonable polar field profile! Although all in all a certain step (although small) in a better direction. With hfs even glimmering a "perhaps " step in the right direction with a noted eastern/western ridge with a desired want of our own hp cell showing baby steps for a desired move into the Scandinavian/Russian sectors! And with the madden julienne oscillating part also showing signs of, more favourable synoptic. So all certainly not lost as we now evolve into winter 'proper ' and with given gains perhaps some more favourable Synoptics coming into view via even the raw/operationals. So some hope again and things to watch evolve as we move toward new year!!!!

I remember it well... @dramatic flip! Although it’s a rarity these days. And with dynamic such as this @500 geo out to 7 January it’s a poor prospect!

Well no point in sugar coating it’s drab!! The vortex ramping right up and looks as though the equatorial pressure has made its home literally into the mid latitudes. We need a dramatic change in upper dynamics for a turnaround! And I would be looking for perhaps late January/early feb.... at least as we stand! Things can and do happen... but we need quite a dramatic turn of events given current data -throughout: Anyway a very merry mild-merry Xmas to you all . And perhaps even a record breaking mild January day or two just to add!!!!

Exactly how many members are plotting......so I’d personally reckon a lot of raw/operational interpretation coming through the suites from here on. Again the turn of the year looking very ripe via exactions,,,

Indeed there is interest, and ensembles are certainly cranking the odds....for me the Xmas period still holds interest... but the turn of the year is more than probably the breaking point as highlighted via snaps... with polar points with decent exactions... but as some suggest trough alignment will look to be the headache... but surely we’ll get lucky as profiles note,,,also the 850 hpas....gaining bunched clustering of desired viewing...

Mike c-Mon.. It's phases of amplifier are notoriously ballooned.. I'm liking the unwind of synoptic.. It's the Atlantic break off vortice..that's being overplayed...model compare will show this undoubtedly!

Format correct.. And heights arrangement!!= What more atm can I push!!!

Overall pattern matching...along with some knowledge of deciphering. And an,understand if not upper layer consequences...but rather linear/angular works..is by far the notion ..if raw modeling is your thing. And perhaps more importantly the understand of a run/suite in light years..'if ya like' it's already playing a catch up phase in the grand scheme...of things.. This I see often.-miss interpretation: Anyway my above..and b4 posts I hope Will Platt into what indeed I'm getting at!!= I can see massive potential in alignment/running momentum-with a desired effect of a link to a Siberian outlet via placement of order... We'll await...aye !!!!

Well okay..Let's turn to the AMP queen @6 clock..to see if my model diagnosis are up to scratch.. Then perhaps get my point across.....better!!= Or indeed 'otherwise'!!! Ec 12z

But as Steve suggests... We need to look @evolution iin time scales!!= it sets up then goes missing somewhat...that classic model UN-deciphering @such stage...and I cannot put the point across strong enough..that we are almost at a point of momentum gain of some perhaps eye watering synoptic... Cross mod.. All the ingredients are there....the chefs just reading the method to cook it !!!

It's classic slide...then override pal .. Into block format territory... So it's already...going up in class...'rapidly'!!= Via evolution!!

I'll take this as a starting grid...!!!!

The Times that are synoptic-sync are beginning to get my juices flowing... Why do I think...we may get the 'just correct' overheads..at the just correct time ... Well simple...the evolution in order.. Xmas could be a banger!!!!! Edit :Xmas 'period'...

Well I'll differ... As b4 I'm liking the Euro heights alignment.. And v_troughing!!.. Imo a favourable evolving...evolution... Watch for upcoming...gained synoptic...@Scandinavian @=greGreenland. Or a sharpening..of 1 or other through this...and upcoming soon suites!!!

A terrific outshot!= Although the itl-met...as the French met...seems to favour-this outcome many winters!!..

Well we'll see be well worth a look at the 500 geo p_stamps..in a while..from around 19/12/2019=onwards...I have a hunch many will be picking up the signal for a cut into the pole at more desired location...and as again...getting that arm of cold air injection into our shores...I'll post them when available.... Let's have a gander then...

But we are still playing (on large scale)- with heights placement deciphering... And we are already gaining via clockwise momentum...So if anything..expect more desired placement s...as we edge closer to the festive period!!!! With more. Chances to both tap in...and engage the flow...

Can't see the surprise tbh...the cold (development)-north east has been increasing via data for days...as b4 some failed to see/note it... It's continuation in deepening/expansion...is just becoming even more of note!!! Edit. If I was looking for back slapping/or a peanut award I could post much data ...with me trying to get above points across...for many days. But I won't.. I'll simply post yet another set of latest plots..that further reinforce...that idea!!!*

Today's by-notes. @slidingsliding @blockingblocking.. 12zgfs offering up decent transition. @blocking format. Here's hoping for an ecm similar evo..this evening... Things ramping up !!!