tight isobar

120interflow synoptic... that’s a big BOOM ... ecm 12z ya saturated in negatives.. and no prizes for guessing the snow potential!!!

Check the hem..and Euro profile... @just 96hrs somink to behold!!

Ecm 12z picking up the signal ..she wobbled @+144 previous.. but when she clasps it.. she’s the lead mod...@for sure .. see where she runs @12z

The model diagnosis -prognosis and overall performance are evaluated @500 geopotential height....edit; perhaps another valid reason to take 850 hpas as a guide.. not a promise... as some do

Last one in this .. then the models.. those graphics will raise n drop as each run b4 engagement... we’ll leave this now aye....

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Points of note via the raws: 1 concentrate on Saturday >Tuesday! 2: assume everything beyond them time params are pie in the sky. : 3 dissmiss all precipitation data charts until 24hrs out of notions. 4: expect a rollercoaster ride until saturdays 12z suites. 5 ; and the most important..let the flow@easterly incursion actually be Door knocking b4 looking for possible routes of breakdown,to herald the return of bk to basics... take these into consideration ... and you’ll save yaself pulpatations and unnecessary greif!!!

Far too much panic in here... I’ll stick an analysis up later via potentials/scopes =ens etc... everything you’d expect b4 a notable spell is occurring via data.. no need for the trauma.. trust me

Mwb:we know the gfs crave for mobile conveniences..and fold and revert... again as per last post.. when the easterly engages at the surface... the models will reflect....

I-cannot emphasise enough that diverge >model mismanagement will be fraught until the surface has encoded the circulation... panic about overheads will be relieved when the flow entails... and as the ecm will likely already alternate this evening.. as when on the cusp it’s the queen at dealing with such features/scenarios... also lastly for now... the shock of such great evolutions = Synoptics are only just beginning... when this flow engages... I think the anti will only ......UP!

Pal fear not ...it’s coming

You need to cheer up my friend...

I’ll go with this. Watch the “supposed breakdown “ get pushed further backwards... again as the flow grips.. and there are model alterations via a route return to mobility.. this could be a locked in one for sure!!!!

Looking for the breakdown is pointless.. as when the flow is inbound... the models may start to look a whole lot different going forwards.. cold spell this... not a snap!!!

Streamer gate... the gift that keeps on giving from Sunday!!! @rolling convection! One can only guess at accumulated ground depths by early nxt week!! Yet more tweaks >upgrades this morning!@easterly incursion.

Thats some serious dynamics.. and feasible given the structure.... and inflow!

Mean and support are on que for the op..it just keeps giving

Exactly that.. viewing the 850 vents on the raws @ops will be of uppermost.. as we get to the infer/incursion imminent-stage @saturday as a guide!

That will only aid convection as the easterly develops.. its win win win.....

@strictly for fun purposes.. the eps snow totals @euro window... . @ winters coming!!!@randomly date selected)

Eps 12z 500s /850s the Atlantic will have a hard time punching through.. and already being pushed bk somewhat via dynamics. Almost certainly in the borders of a notable spell here!!! .. and n-hemispheric says spring will be a very long time coming.... over to the offy run ? @18z gfs ya want winter proper.. ya wish is commanded....

It’s at best a transition.. which would in itself be a great offer on the table... but with the modelled incursion.. it certainly will Not be a clean atl barrel break..I think we’ll see when we have the easterly @the surface... she won’t be going anywhere quick!!!!!

Every chance my friend.. things are ripe for @expolsive streamer precipitation!!... @estuary infer.

As with any snow-zone geographicals these WILL shift as we gain but even by now I think we can at least begin to gage the zones @somewhat!!

We’ll see what eps says about that in a while!!!!