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Chris101

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Posts posted by Chris101

  1. Yes I have decided to stay put for a bit longer, I don't think they will die off to nothing before they reach here. Skew-T charts for Norfolk are showing cape until at least 18.00 with possibly the cap breaking. Would be nice to have some surface based storms once the elevated storms have passed :D

    The line of storms now going through here has died now, radio has stopped crackling, every couple of mins there is a faint crackle from the Kings Lynn storm.

     

    Saying that just had a loud crackle and a rumble to my West, if you have a radio its a storm chasers best friend.

     

    ......And another at Stowmarket but not very active at all now

  2. It seems to be a common pattern for storm activity to die out for a couple hours in the morning before reinvigorating. I can understand why the heat of the day may cause storms to reinvigorate but would be interested to know why storms generally seem to lose intensity through the 8-11am period?

    With night time convection its all about Diurnal heating, when the heating starts to drop so the storms will start to fade, the diurnal minimum is at midday so there is your answer. I can't find a good link at the mo on convection and diurnal heating (to much going on here) but i'll try and find one later unless someone else knows of one offhand.

  3. Yes but the speed northward seems to be picking up rapidly!

    http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

    This is a great site especially if you put the sound on and hear the 'ticks' as the lightning strikes. Definitely increasing the rate and speed..

    Never realised you could switch the clicks on, have zoomed it in over the UK on another tab, so if i hear any clicks i'll flick over to it.

     

    Nice one CF  :)

  4.  06Z NMM Modle output much keener on the overnight elevated storms.

    Posted Imagecloudprecip01.pngPosted Imagecloudprecip03.png

     

    Still developing storms from early morning onwards.

     

    Posted Imagecloudprecip08.pngPosted Imagecloudprecip11.png

     

    Posted Imagecloudprecip15.png

     

    I should say that there seems to be some agreement in the models about overnight now, but tomorrow daytime still differs from model to model.

    Yes, after the initial destabilisation through the night, there does look to be a further destabilisation early saturday morning.

  5. we have camping chairs, tripods, three DSLR cameras, energy drinks and most importantly of all, a crate of beer.

     

    Our vantage point looks due south and west towards Winchester and Southampton beyond, last time we were up there we caught a few glimpses of fork lightning which i would estimate as far away as the channel (40-50 miles) seeing as I dont think any strikes occured in-land that evening...so fingers crossed. Its now or never gentlemen

    I always like to have my little radio with me aswell so i can hear the strikes, its always nice to hear a strike and see a flicker in the distance, otherwise my eyes start to play tricks on me seeing flashes that aren't there.

     

    Best of luck

  6. I can get a bit crabby if i miss out, I'm the first to admit that! Only because I'm storm starved lolI'm not sure about anybody else, I'm still intrigued as to what occurs, even if if I do miss out- there is so much potential, does the ATD lightning detector go in to meltdown? It is quite exciting!

     

    Thats no surprise to be honest, days of model watching and then hours and hours of refreshing the radar can leave us all pretty exhausted and when it all fails to bring a storm to your area it can be very disheartening.

     

    Myself, i think i'm probably just too far East, so when things kick off i shall be looking at heading towards Cambridge if it still looks like i'm going to draw a blank here.

    • Like 1
  7. In a way people should be looking at things as 2 separate events overlapping somewhere in the middle, my thoughts are pretty much the same as my earlier post.

    Firstly during Friday night the plume will start to destabilise and elevated storms will move into the SW, S Wales moving NE into CS England and SW Midlands in the early hours of saturday, people in these areas shouldn't worry about cape values as these are elevated storms. During the day on Saturday this first round of storms will start to die out as they move into N England, NW but some very heavy rain will still affect these areas.

     

    The second event should get going in the afternoon when surface heating and some high cape values will develop surface based thunderstorms over E England, some of these will be severe moving into Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire and parts of East Anglia (mainly West EA) maybe as far as S Yorks.

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