[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

At the end of the day the signs are good, every front and trough that crosses the UK has lots of fluctuations and divergences from what was forecast, little waves and pivots, sudden intensifications of certain areas.

The thing is that most of the year this makes no difference to us whatsoever and to a certain extent we don't even notice that we got a fair bit more or less rain than was forecast or it rained for 2 hours longer than they said.

Now when that precipitation leaves a deposit behind that we can see all those fluctuations come into play a whole lot more, rest assured the guys at meto will be trying madly to work as much detail as they can to add in to the model, but it wont be easy for them, like i say, the most of the year they really don't have to worry about these minor details, it just ends up with you saying it was meant to stay clear till lunch but its raining already.

How many times a year does anyone notice that they were forecast 4.6mm of rain but actually got 6.0mm?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

8 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

Surprised by that as the EURO4 showed the showers turning to snow at 3am-6am. 

Must say i was fully expecting reports of a dusting in places this morning, seems we are going to have to fight for it.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, Nqp15hhu said:

We have the NW wind. I think the atmosphere is just saturated.

Yes, Dps still to high in Norwich and Weymouth at around 2c, just down the road out of the North Sea flow they are more like -2c

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

E4 Day after Tomorrow if anyone fancies it

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Possible adjustment of Met Office warning then. Amber maybe for parts of Kent, Sussex, Essex. Then yellow still for similar area to before is my thinking. 

Agreed it will certainly have adjustments made before Tuesday.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol we can all rest assured that it will happen, ITV weather just called it1cm widely 10cm in the mountains of the SE 

I might get some depth at the top of the Orwell bridge then, thats about the best height i can get for miles around these parts.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

4 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Hints in the Models this afternoon of what the MO have been consistently banging the drum for in their mid/long range outlook.

Hope so as a very cold Feb with E/NE winds would be a nice end to Winter.

My first thoughts on UKMO run tonight was how much it matched their 6-15 a few days ago.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

In the here and now, winds really blowing in the North of the region as per meto warning.

Wraparound trough may slowly be turning more sleety as the sun drops and temps drop off.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

i thought tuesday was still subject to change

Yes it will be right up to Tuesday, which is why i shall wait till post low to get any excitement for Thursday.

Actually, reading my post back i think its clear its subject to change.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Looking good for Tuesday and now Thursday/Friday in my opinion anyway. Thoughts guys?

Certainly looking very nice, we are almost there with Tuesday now but have to remember how many days and runs its taken to get here, have to keep our feet on the ground still regarding Thursday, there are still a lot of possible outcomes, i think we may have to wait until Tuesdays low outcome to really firm up on Thursdays.

The good thing about chasing Thursdays prospects is that a fair few of us should see snow falling whilst we do. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep watching it, must be a trough about, because it seems to be building over land, doesn't seem connected to any streamers in the northwest. And back building to the north too. May get interesting, as long as temps drop a bit too.

Yes wraparound trough coming down the north sea seems to be beefing showers up coming through the South of the region from the Cheshire gap area.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

That models thread is so toxic and over analysed. Every run is like the be all or end all of winter. Not to mention nobody seems to get on. Think a lot of people there have got a case of small willy syndrome and need to focus on the weather more than personal egos..

 

Anyway,

GFS para very good for down here both Tuesday and Thursday... That's the important thing. Beyond that, Well the MO is saying that colder air is going to follow in behind on Friday, and I'm going with them. Despite all the negative nancy's on the thread saying winter is over 

Give it time you'll soon understand who to listen to and who to scroll on by.

There's a little band who turn up with a bad run, their posts usually start "I've been saying all along"

Lots of wannabe forecasters who write stuff with no idea of what they are saying. So many on Friday gone were writing posts detailing the complete collapse of the cold this Thurs coming with full agreement from all models and this was our last chance at winter. 24 hours later they are trying their hand at in depth analysis again forgetting their claims from the previous day.

As I say you get used to who the respectable posters are that know what they are talking about. Luckily for us we have probably the best of them in our regoinal

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Splodgy rain. I like that phrase. I often call it falling melted snow because when it hurts a surface like the car windscreen you can see the icy components of the higher level snow.

Find yourself looking out the windscreen with a strange look and a cranked neck saying "Yes its definitely splodging"

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Parallel still showing backedge snow tomorrow morning.....

It does seem after a break from the first front of rain the wraparound looks like it could just give something.

Will certainly be a noticeable change in temps by then, precip should at least start changing to the splodgy kind.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

46 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Are there any sites/apps that show live temps? And possible pressure/ front movements. Satellite and radar is ok for precip but not specific for the dp and temps nationwide.

Sorry @Mizzle went away from lappy, i use xcweather myself, it uses official stations so your not getting bad obs from badly sited stations.

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Wow Ukmo throws in a big run, curveball style.

.....and at probably the more realistic timeframe that blocks appear in my previous experience.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Interesting run, not often you see lows going in that direction

To all that are banging on off it goes into France, looks more like LP centre turns up the French Channel coast.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

13 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

This should help us decipher which models to look at and trust next week. Normally I'd not put much faith in the GFS precip charts but I thought they did pretty well with last Tuesdays event! Here's hoping!

Be good to watch temps and DPs come South tonight, how quick can they push into the front.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

Slightly off topic lol but parra shows zero blocking in fi.standard areas of low pressure moving east.could all change granted but it's there on the run.wonder when the great charts will pop up ?

A wise weatherman once said to me a chart doesn't become a great chart until the day after.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

A lot of annoying and unhelpful imbyism.

Does start to seem a bit that way, but Its hard not to look like that when we actually get something into a range where we can start modelling features with a bit of finer detail.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

6 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Named after the areas they affect "North of M4" and "South of M4"

 

And while I'm here, I'll repeat my question from a few days ago, could the two "North of M4" and "South of M4" merge and if they did would that give us an intense low?

Pretty sure thats what we dont want.

Anyone clarify??

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

the low hasnt even developed yet

Lol, and neither has the first one, which some are starting to take note of at last, certainly think some agreement on that before something thats happening days later.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just a note to people who have been watching run after run, in just the last month whilst the pattern has been in its seemingly repetitive state.

As well as seeing a lot of wonderful looking LP's sliding in a lovely position for locking in the cold, i have seen numerous runs with massively blown up LP's over the UK.

I don't remember either coming off yet. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

So sorry if I mislead anyone.

 

Please never write this again.

You have mislead NO-ONE

If anyone feels they have been mislead by your predictions and interpretations then they are playing the wrong game and should probably get out while they still can.

Please @TEITS don't delete your posts ever just because you suddenly think someone might get mislead if it changes.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Morning All,

Well nice to see people in here looking at what could be on offer in the next few days rather than the middle of next week.

One low at a time, thats all we can really look at........Sundays low track is pretty much agreed to bring the colder air back in to the UK.

Now Mon/Tues is where us guys need to pay attention over the next few runs.

Don't need to get to hung up on the Lp after that, Sundays Lp took most of this week to finalise some sort of track.