[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The blown up low at day 6 is essentially game over .

All along it was crucial to get a shallow feature to the se of the UK.

Regardless of any snow chances earlier which are still to be nailed down because of the earlier disagreements the big 3 ops at day 6 don’t make pleasant viewing .

A slowly filling low stuck over the UK with the cold blown away from the east by the track and depth of the low earlier.

Unless the models weaken that low and improve its track then there’s no point trying to make a Michelin dinner out of spam and eggs !

In terms of pre the low tragedy the ECM has that low in the Channel but these types of features are very difficult to nail down at this timeframe .

Overall a very disappointing start to the day . And we have to hope that they’ve modeled the upstream low wrongly between day 5 and 6.

Would have been nice to have come to this post first this morning, informative but not suicidal, think i prefer to read up after i've done the school run...............So much quicker once all the little children have all gone off to class

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Anyone got any ideas of if and how many times ECM or others blew up Sundays LP out of proportion in the last 5 days, genuine question my head has looked at so many charts and the memory gets worse.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Line of light showers buiding back slightly onto the Suffolk coast, the odd flurry of icy stuff in the air.

Temp around 1c, dp -0.3c

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Northern Kent on the edge of the Estuary could get a little covering as that blob sticks a drinking straw in the Thames.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We want that PV digging as far South in the US as it helps the jet buckle more and pull the Azores High Westwards and Northwards. 

Agree 100%, if that drops as far South, we also stand our best chance yet of splitting that lobe from its feed.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

13 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

How's it looking for us down here in Essex!!

Radars getting very fuzzy around the Estuary area, may just see a few flakes in the air under some dense cold clag.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

2 minutes ago, Dami said:

my garden tells me it's +2.3, but clear and sunny. The man in the van who cleans our bin thinks its freezing. Feels colder now than this morning.

A few round the village have said colder than first thing this morning.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

I like to think of this winter as a slow walk down the beach and into the sea as oppose to jumping straight off the end of the pier.

Still think theres a good chance of making it out to the end of the pier though.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Well if you were purely going off the GFS/GEFS 6z you would be inclined to think there is a quite decent cold spell from the 27th . Looks good on the graph , plenty of snow chances

I have a great dislike for all those spikes, they just keep screaming the different placements of failed heights coming through this season, though i do feel that one of those spike will suddenly flatline the rest in our favour, somewhere between 96-144hr.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

To be fair does anyone think that the slow pace at which (fingers crossed) we are building our cold more and more, is pretty much in tandem with the slow downwelling.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Conversely it also helps to stop the PV forcing the whole lot SE and toppling the Azores high into Europe, so I think whilst I understand what your saying, its a net positive feature on this run as the cold is already in place.

Our ridge just not good enough to hold that lobe back, lets see if 2 ridges can work on keeping it back.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I honestly believe to achieve what we want with our ridge we need to see heights at pretty much the same time over the pole.

When i watch the gifs of the N.Hem its the pole all the time churning masses of cold into the Can.Pv.

I think if we cant shut that tap off at the same time our ridge goes up then the repeating pattern will be tough to stop.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

7 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Reasonably potent Northerly with plenty of precip for England at just T90 on the 6z GFS:

 

The length and size of the high at 96, surely a chance of a big atlantic block and a big northerly?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, pinball wizard said:

Hi Steve, do you think Ipswich has any chances of catching any of this? 

Ipswich looked fairly good for the next 24 on Arpege bit less so on Euro 4, keep your eyes on that Cheshire Gap train through the evening and night.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

While the 12z's come out sit back and relax with a movie and some music.

https://webcam.nl/zaanseschans/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjPNO-A-Fqw&list=RDWjPNO-A-Fqw&start_radio=1

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

18 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Over?

No, because it was never going to happen. 

Plenty said that before every cold spell in the internet era.

Even last year

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not really for this thread, but was for fun, as snow charts at this range is FI, it shows lying snow in most areas except here, 

Cool cheers, i would have thought being Saturday, that a Tuesday snow chart would not be so much FI

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for fun, but awful chart!

A small explanation of how you find this chart for Tuesday awful please.

TIA

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day time temps late Jan..

South East coast freeze??

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

31 minutes ago, snowray said:

Anyone seen a chart like this before verifying? In recent years anyway?

Curtesy of the JMA.

Was the big snowfall of last year not made up of 3/4 small circulations sliding through the UK as the trough disrupted.

I distinctly remember seeing the moisture feed pumping across from Germany for hours and running round the circulations as they came through.

Probably on a smaller scale than the JMA is showing but lots of snow.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Fwiw i think we are still in a good position to see the next ridge do slightly better than the first, the canadian lobe will drain and become more malleable each time we slide a piece off, fairly confident of a ridge sticking by Feb.

Bit like when you used to flick soggy paper at the classroom ceiling, there was always one that got stuck up there for days.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Hey Guys, I dont post too much in here, but i absolutely love this thread and wouldn't be anywhere else in winter.

Im not being funny but over the last few days i've watched the pages and pages of discussion, sometimes heated but generally cool, over the placement and track of an Lp which we now are pretty sure will come down the country NW to SE bringing a forecasters wintry mix nightmare.

So surely we are now in exactly the same position with the next Lp in having no idea till say the weekend whether the ridge and slide if any will go our way.

Cheers Chris

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Greetings all,

Been a long while since i was last in, but with cold on the horizon had to come back and join in the up and coming fun.

Some great posts by @TomSE12 to come back to, hope your well mate.

Good to see all the faces still here.

Cheers Chris

Oh and its always good to see a few ramp pics appearing

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

GFS pretty consistent today.6-z and 12z wise.poor for us coldies but its what it is

A contiuation of that slider backing West with its uppers a few miles each run could at least see a few more fruits on the tree by weeks end.

After that.........????

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards]

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