rory o gorman

that is only one solution publiusEngma... It doesnt have much support from the 12z ens and the lastest ecm control is going along the lines of its op .

up yours GFS . cut off heights at last!

short term ens - control and mean are far better . looking like a mild outliner hopefully

another reason why a bad ens would worry me is how many times in the past have we seen the gfs lead the way in a blocking pattern and to be slowly followed by the others before it picks up energy off the eastern sea board again in the mid/short term and it comes to fruition.

As i said earlier the 12Z ens are going to play a massive part in the gfs recognition of shortwaves under greenland.If support is there i will become worried

1 run? The ens from yesterdays 18z were a major worry with little support for the op. todays OP in both the 00z and 06z have been poor and although split have some support . If this from the model that started this cold ramp has no merit then people may just aswell draw there own charts.

very silly comments here slating the GFS 06z . we saw from the ens at 18Z yesterday this solution having a lot of support .So although the gfs is not the be all and end all at this stage, it does play a significant role.

they have a contract with the ecmwf , they use hirlam for short range and 'look in on the ukmo im told' i was commenting in regarding to their long range forecast which is 100% ecm based .

personally a lot hinges on the gfs ens, if support grows for the Atlantic i will start to get worried. hoping its just a bug in the data

The irish met use the ECM only. Dont even look at the gfs in creating a forecast.

not surprising at all as the Irish met go strictly by the book off the ecm OP.

Ok time to post here, lurking long enough . There is solid agreement that the first low will undercut from all main models and ens. so high chance of snow for many in the medium term. As for the gfs Ensembles, a large scatter is to be expected after the 16th as the recent SSW is just registering in the output in the last 2 days. Given how forecasts and solutions regrading slight changes in data/input come about, this is totally normal with such a abnormal synoptic solutions being revealed in the higher res op currently. The ukmos and ecmwf are on board with cut off heights to the north.This has a great good chance of verifying into something sustained hold tight guys .