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rory o gorman

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Everything posted by rory o gorman

  1. rory o gorman
    Its a cracker for me here in southern ireland
  2. rory o gorman
    baseball hail anyone? http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130611/18/192/ukcapeli.png
  3. rory o gorman
    heros has fallen , rip team twistex
  4. rory o gorman
    Given the heights and overall thickness i think 14c is severely low-balled for Wednesday a common problem with the gfs. Was forecast for 14c here today with 0.2mm of rain by said GFS, currently mostly sunny with 16.7c at 5 pm and zero rain.
  5. rory o gorman
    even today here given the colder 850s uppers , its still a pleasant 17c and sunny .Goes to show people that 500 mb heights are more important at this time of the year given the strong sun.
  6. rory o gorman
    Dont really understand this post , both charts show heights stronger then today and in southern ireland today's weather zero octaves of cloud and 19.6c hardly unsettled. perhaps you could explain the source of wet weather in said charts given both have stronger heights than Greece...
  7. rory o gorman
    pub run no wobbles so far , looking more and more likely of a warm up at last!
  8. rory o gorman
    ECM is a big improvement for my location here in southern Ireland , ridged from Monday on ,until F.I with descent uppers and offshore winds , today's 10c would become 16-18c quite easily .
  9. rory o gorman
    not very poor in the sub 100 hours timeframe, it's been bullish in its ens for the last 3 days on a strong pressure rise.
  10. rory o gorman
    12z is a winner in the medium term 18-21 C by Tuesday beats the wintry 9 currently here...
  11. rory o gorman
    The gfs 12z has my location at plus 564- geo heights for 80% of the run past friday , and the ECM has a warm stable NE flow that would push 20c plus here in southern Ireland going out to the final frame of the ECM to signal disaster well.. , I love both unsettled convective spells as well as settled.
  12. rory o gorman
    Very nice 12z gfs , spits a strong ridge over us in Ireland by Saturday and continues mostly ridged into deep F.I with the jet well to the north and lower heights over Greenland is the 6 year curse over
  13. rory o gorman
    The potent trough over southern Ireland on Wednesday is looking increasingly good for a first proper chase this season. ECM showing signs of the western ridge having more of an influence out into F.I so not to displeased with latest outcome personally.
  14. rory o gorman
    I think we cant write off the next week after tomorrow for warmth , but F.I plus ens are still hinting at a solid warm up
  15. rory o gorman
    Note the ejection of the shortwave in the northeast of the usa on this run and not the last . There is some very active weather developing in the U.S next week with a strong negative trough off the rockies on monday/tueday therefor is causing problems with consistency downstream.
  16. rory o gorman
    will be nice too get the moisture back and watch the LCLs drop down , sunshine and convection looking like the theme on the gfs tonight with a ,strong advection of warmth in F.I
  17. rory o gorman
    I see your point totally , just from what i see involving the fast ejecting trough across the plains next week with strong amplification towards the eastern sea board i see a pretty fast break down of heights but the scatter on ens does show other options indeed.
  18. rory o gorman
    your undercutting low , which goes against all teleconections indicated by NOAA as regards trough amplification and longwave pattern ,MJO is set to change phase also . dont see it happening
  19. rory o gorman
    perhaps the large bock of heights to the south knows as the AZ high might stop that , like it does 99% of the time ?
  20. rory o gorman
    hear hear, its rather annoying when people pull hail mary , ens members or random unsupported F.I changes and do full posts on them just to highlight their preference. Anyway good too see the 06z ensembles returning to near temps from Saturday ,some descent WAA shots and post shortwave instability with a chance of perhaps some descent convection given the step laspes. I will take it over this mundane pattern currently
  21. rory o gorman
    yep you got it purga snow is for sure coming .... and in real life good convection setups on the gfs today , surface heating creating some good laspes may be in our future
  22. rory o gorman
    means the pattern in the whole northern hemisphere is about to change. MJO changing phase
  23. rory o gorman
    Good news from the the U.S with the spc backing a strong change in the longwave pattern early next week with ridging on the eastern seaboard, and yes severe weather on the plains
  24. rory o gorman
    well im looking for convection now , so the ecm pattern is fine for me, plenty of WAA on the gfs also .
  25. rory o gorman
    The cold blast deep in F.I is a deep outliner, a bit of straw clutching going on tonight it seems .
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