rory o gorman

Southern Ireland was also blasted with 6 inches plus of snow , with thundersnow reported as a streamer setup. Again the pressure is plus 1020 hpa but the SST/upper trough created quite steep lapse rates .

It was certainly above 1020 hpa at one point with a nasty grapel thundersnow streamer with tops about 30k. 850 mb temperatures play a role but not nearly as much as the 500mb . The LFC for a parcel in a streamer here is probably nearing 800mb so buoyancy above that would be the telling factor.

Not a very good way of reading convective precip I'm afraid . SST's are near 10c in that location and 500mb heights approaching -30 . I don't even need a Skew-t to tell me there will be adequate ML CAPE for convective given the lapse rates. P.S Dublin Ireland had thundersnow in 2009 with pressure about 1025 Hpa, if memory serves correctly.

Some super temperatures in Ireland and a spring like feel to the air with a subtropical airmass next week

Basic thermodynamics , in winter a lack of solar heating and a stagnant air mass cause's a stronger inversion that can intensify to more 10 c or more as seen yesterday over parts of france. As mid level flow increases the BL normally mixes out and the sounding becomes much more adiabatic. Therefor don't expect cold surface temps with the forecast synoptics next week.

The GFS has nailed a number of dynamic system in the U.S over the autumn from about 7-10 days out . Clearly the algorithm has been enhanced recently or data feed has improved with more NAM style input. Pattern does appear locked with a very strong advection of warmth, D.P's approaching 10 c near Iceland and 546 (500-100mb)dam breaking into the Arctic. With such amplification though chances of a easterly are not as far gone as many are making it out to be. Subtle differences in the trough ejecting from the eastern seaboard early next week or energy slipping into Europe and things could change real fast . As a poster above alluded to this is far better than a flat active westerly pattern.

Quite happy with the Ecm tonight . Ok its not cold ,but its dry and with the moderate breeze a good chance for those 10 C uppers to mix down. Far better than a cranking jet and endless rain .

18z not a drop of rain for us here in Ireland on the whole run . drought conditions if it comes to fruition .

looks like a keen northeast breeze on the north sea coast midweek , given the SSTs there , would expect it to be rather chilly given sea fog or low cloud. 14c isotherm building over ireland in line with the earlier ecm .

ecm bringing in 16c upper for parts of ireland

below average SSTs and a rather keen enhanced sw'ly over the top of the high might have a bit more cloud up there also i feel

will apply here , because today is sunny and if tomorrow is also sunny then its better then the last 7 July's . stunning 06z with 564 dam coming ashore even earlier

although it looks good on the surface , with strong cape, the lack of any forcing and 850 inversion will make the chances of a thunderstorm very slim. Hodographs are also very poor. maybe a slight chance of a pop up storm here on monday .

Yep the slight westerly regression is always a possibility given the scandi trough showing up on ecm ENS yesterday. looks like eastern England will be cooler but it is a surprise to see the plus 10 uppers vanish so fast over a good part of Britain. Ireland holds on to 12c uppers and similar heat to 18z though . wouldn't panic its only a slight wobble and might not be backed at all

18Z is the holy grail of all summer charts . temps forecast to 30C here in Ireland is extremely rare this far out . 564 dam well up over most parts and a quickly warming sea will see Mediterranean style summer weather.

pubic access charts such as weatheronline http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD= for dew point - R.h and theta -e ect . or try http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/ for more complex charts .

projected dew points of near 20c for parts next week is going to be rather oppressive for sleeping. 7 years waiting for this in Ireland would be extra nice if it regressed into a slack euro high and introduced a nice sparky plume.

564 dam line is IMO the holy grail for Mediterranean type weather as long as the air-mass is stable and descending. Hence mainland Spain remains full clear quite often in summer. Similarly the Greek islands often have rather low surface pressure and strong meltemi winds but remain extremely sunny all summer.

the 500 -geo heights and 500-1000 mb thickness are better indicators for sunshine and suppression of convective afternoon cloud.

16 C uppers over southern Ireland fantastic output with any F.I trough dropping well to my east

damn knew it was to good to last

very epic runs this morning .Not a bad complaint nit picking thickness and 850s to see what kind of heat can be created.

been lovely here , a few nice sunny days little rain and temps hitting 22c today .

ECM is a cracker for us here in southern ireland as we sit next to the strongest heights and an mesoscale fohn effect from mountains in the west will give a pretty summery week. Will also be the first good week past the summer solstice since 2006 here .

excellent GFS for here in southern Ireland heights rising as early as Sunday and continuing dry and warm throughout next week with 10C plus 850s arriving mid week.The dropping trough in the low res would have little effect perhaps a brief weak front before signs of AZ ridge building again . .