rory o gorman

big scatter in the ENS this morning for Dublin, showing both a chance for cold to remain with undercutting or much more seasonal with Greenland heights eroding and unsettled but milder air advecting. A growing number of members show quite a fast transition to mild hopefully a developing trend.

This is truly an awful gfs run with no end to cold or blocking in sight, The growth season will be over a month behind not what i want i too see this later in the year. Im hoping this is a full outliner on the suite ,and the ecm ensembles are are on the right track.

-10 are you serious, without deep snow cover and 12 hours daylight ?

agreed gavin the above temperatures would do nothing for snow , all that chart shows me is grey cloudy weather with a 'lovely' inversion sitting over us. not for me thanks

yes gavin we may get a nice WWA from the southeast later next week or weekend. The ensembles giving some good backing to this as you alluded too.

thats just what march has been , so cold and gloomy ,that one cant even go for a walk without a winter coat , I for one want a to feel a warm breeze and see a few convective spring setups soon and then a proper summer come may/june

better run from the ecm , slowly eroding the heights to the north following the gfs mean tread , hopefully will progress over the next few days .

A good cluster of milder options showing on the lastest ensembles for Ireland , hopefully an Atlantic resurgence is just around the corner .

GFS is pumping back warmer uppers for a time at my location next week before its all shunted back south , signs still remain in F.I of falling heights over Greenland.hopefully the ecm will come on board later.

18Z ensemble suite is showing signs of a good warm up with the OP being again a cold outliner for most parts. seems lightly that heights will fall back over Greenland over the next week .

i would rather the gfs 12z too start the convective season off, ecm is poor for any surface heating really ..

finally a bit of hope of spring starting on the ECM tonight , heights to the north getting eroded slowly hopefully the GFS will start to pick up the trend.

so the 18z op is not an outliner would sure be interesting to see if we can indeed tap into the P.V and some deep cold. Could see some strong convection as a result of sub 528 dam and diurnal heating.

for any convective weather junkies the season is only starting. true weather weenies are more then just snow. Looking like a super blocked pattern setting up with the trough persisting over France and unusually strong heights building to the north. Looking like a dry few weeks.

Almost identical to last year in F.I with strong WAA . I would rather not see this in march

The heatwaves in both months were caused by blocking scandi/icelandic or bartlett high causing strong WWA over the uk from a much warmer then the normal SW modified source in both cases had little chance of lasting. heights began to rise over greenland as earlier as late march last year as continued to intensity during april. A displaced placed AZ high as been noted most of the last 6 springs . I would like to see a zonal pattern in march/april and heights building slowly from the southwest during april/may.

Will this be a double edge sword. Strong heights building over greenland in march is something i don't want to see because it likes to hang around for months when it builds. 6 bad summers in a row is more than enough for me.

00z gfs is another cracker . strong heights locked in

Gfs is just what the doctor ordered 100% prefect synoptic pattern for snow in southeastern Ireland .

Agreed but still not convinced of fully cut off heights over greenland . A possible solution would be a scandi high with heights sinking over or just to our east with a flow from a weakened cold pool over europe. hoping for the cut off though, as ireland has had sweet f all from this winter.

Yes i agree with height rises in the mid/long term ,but personally im not convinced of the PV dropping down .we may end up with a modified SE flow.

the gfs 12z takes its time rising heights again. I agree with steve and feel 170-200 hr time frame for sustained blocking .

Some more promising signs again today with models firming up on HP forming and a rather blocked/ dormant Atlantic. Still the jury is out on the position, will heights sink to give a central euro high and a chilly SE flow or will teleconnections link with greenland and often the chance of tapping into the PV and bring about more sustained wintry synoptics. Interesting times ahead

I would agree with the above statement from london-snow . Being a pro has little advantage when forecasting in the long range especially at this latitude and people do hang on every word and have a habit to ramp the said forecasters comments. Personally i believe there will be a sustained albeit modified period of blocking, with a scandi high dropping or perhaps cutting off into a Bartlett . overall i don't see uppers under -6 with no clear flow from the P.V and a filling trough over Europe.

personally i would take a spring like February over a stormy zonal pattern that is battering Ireland right now .