rory o gorman

It is for my area anyway the bottom member

GFS 00z ens full cold outliner in medium term. Very good mean for a return to mild

joe b,astari (swear filter lol) going for a strong warm up ,https://twitter.com/...9208449/photo/1

yep and the uppers are colder at present and air temps are 4/5 c , so this chart leaves us with a chilly 6/7c cloudy days , wonderful

Nice WAA there , might be a start to the convection season also , happy days bursting for a chase now

it might change the pattern , but the gfs has put out many good severe outbreaks in the last 2 weeks with negative troughs and proper WAA but close to the date it falls apart due to the blocking.

steve murr has left because its spring and like most people would like to enjoy the seasons for what they are. also half an hour of sunshine after a snow shower in april and goodbye snow. this blocking is also destroying the storm season in the U.S and for severe weather junkies like myself and paul sherman it not at all good news.

No the gfs F.I has been indeed showing for many days a breakdown on and off. but the ecm, and more so the gfs ens have many more members siding towards mild in the reliable.

nice low res end to the gfs again , similar albeit later then the ecm for energy going north ,positive signs now that will hopefully be seen in the ens later

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130330/12/174/ukmaxtemp.png 10c forecast for here next Saturday will make a welcome change despite the below average uppers ,500 mb heights are rather strong so perhaps rather sunny , snow risk seems to has passed for us thankfully

good rise on the 06z ensembles the OP is right at the bottom. with some members heading for the 10c isotherm for my area

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130329/18/360/h500slp.png yes i will take that , thank you very much , much better from 180 hrs and hopefully teleconnections returning to a more typical spring/summer pattern

GFS keen to shoot up a ridge straight up over us in about a week , possible to build our own heat as polar flow cut off. 11c maxes on saturday in light winds here would be a big improvement indeed . The upward trend continues hopefully .

yep thats the mogreps , still tho the Atlantic can strike back fast at any time , i believe it will within two weeks .

The gfs 06z are starting to show a return to more typical spring weather with a good southerly influence developing.

agreed the energy at 240 hrs is going north the blocking is toppled , hopefully we can see a ridging setup before the summer.

great end to the ecm, 240 hrs would have high teens here in southern Ireland

You can indeed get snow from a NE flow in April, but not with the heights gfs 12z has shown. its a stratus fest.

Overall the ECM is very cold for the time of year and little snow beyond 48 hrs yes -6/8 upper can fall as snow this time of the year but day time radiant heating will cause melting and increasingly sleet with less dept overall . Plus heights build well on the run and smells of an inversion at 850 mb from 72 hrs plus and with a slack flow all i see is boring cloudy cold with 3/4c maxes for most of the run. where anyone see excitement in this is beyond me...

good end to the gfs , AZ high building vortex back intact . we might get a summer yet

nice end to the ECM with proper WAA getting going. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20130325/00/ecmt850.240.png

GFS showing a slow warm up next week better breakdown of heights to the north

yep its mild sunny weather we want ,and for me active convection so i can start chasing again . The latest dublin gfs ENS shows a slow but steady rise in uppers from friday on .slowly does it now

Ok but to you expect uppers to be sub -12 with sub 528 dam to arrive from an easterly in april honestly? I like cold and snow in WINTER when weaker sun and less surface heating and deeper cold pools allow for the chance of deep cold coming from the east and therefor convective snow .

Purga- is either a troll or a strange taste in weather. Firstly the gfs 06z is no good for snow most of the run is cloudy cold/cool with a rather strong biting east wind. If your excited by that then ok... but i don't know many that would , especially severe weather junkies and more so farmers, who would be very far behind in the growing season and costing them in feed for cattle ect that would normally be outdoors. As for proper snow in april a direct arctic flow with much colder air at 500 mb is needed, not a slight modified pool of eastern cold.How anyone can like this run is beyond me ...