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Biensie

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    South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 15/02/14

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Biensie

    Terrifying holes that are opening up all over Britain: They're appearing at FIVE TIMES their normal rate and further bad weather could mean we haven't seen the last of them

    • Sinkholes seen in Kent, South-East London and Hemel Hempstead
    • One in High Wycombe engulfed a car as it was parked in the driveway
    • Expert believes sinkholes are appearing five times their normal rate
    • Forecast heavy rain could mean more holes appear around the country

    from mail online btw

     

    Its true, we have one appeared at my sons school and one on the motorway near us! very worrying..

     

    Maybe we should change the Snow Depth Cup Challenge to the Sink Hole Challenge!  

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I'm sure the Dep. Chief won't object to me citing him directly on his briefing issued just before midday today (the emphasis italics are his, not mine), so to avoid paraphrashing or confusing the UKMO underpinning behind the 6-15d forecast. This should speak for itself re your queries and why a return to zonal is the form horse further ahead:

     

    "...after a quasi-meridional period in approx the day 6 to 8 day f/c period in which a filling area of low pressure moves SE’wards across UK, there is a return thereafter to the generally zonal pattern already seen for most of this winter. There are differences between models.... wrt the detail of the return to a more zonal pattern, but very little disagreement that this broadscale evolution will occur.....

    Examination of Shannon Entropy f/c output from both EC and MOGREPS both have low entropy / high confidence early in the 6-10 day period and later (in the trend period), with a spike of high entropy / low confidence around days 8 or 9, relating to

    the detail of the return to zonal flow."

     

     

     

     

    Sorry to be so ignorant but what does that mean in layman's terms?  Thanks

    • Like 2
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    Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think it's really sad that there are folk on here who would be happy to see the majority on here miss out on a taste of wintry weather at long last, it's sad that we can't all accept whatever the weather decides to do in the spirit of fairness, there is always this mean streak from a minority.

     

    I've never had so many people on 'ignore' in my preferences! Don't let them get you down Frosty, you have been our hope on the mildest of days!

    • Like 21

    South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13

    in Regional

    Posted

    Hi Biensie, Tamara has been on the model and the strat thread recently - a consistent voice of sanity and reason and always the chance of a really proper recipe!

    Thanks abruzzi spur, i do keep popping in Model Thread  but have a job to understand what they are going on about.  However, don't recall her on there either.  I miss her posts here as she obviously knows what she is talking about and can write it so I understand.

    • Like 1
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