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wiltshire weather
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Posts posted by wiltshire weather
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For those watching on the Netweather radar and wondering about how accurate they are with the actual weather type, this is from their blurb on it:
Weather Type Radar
The weather type detection uses a combination of hi-resolution model data, along with ground observations to show whether rain, sleet, snow, hail or freezing rain is falling. It's an excellent guide, but bear in mind that in very localised situations some variation may occur. -
8 minutes ago, festivalking said:
More excitement in the MAD thread about an easterly coming in. lots of the charts do suggest it. If that happens very cold but mainly dry!
It does seem that way.
It even matches up with the Meto 6-30 day outlook as well for once !
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In the warning area for the snow showers (North West etc.) the chief forecaster mentions :
"Around 2 cm of snow is possible even to low levels in places. 5-10 cm is possible on high ground above about 200 m."
So would seem that's sort of their default.
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Just now, Nights King said:
Uncertain still though but you are 136m...
I thought 100m plus for general term for high ground?
Yes, I guess whenever they don't actually quote the ASL they're deliberately leaving the door open a little.
I'm still keeping fingers crossed.
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MetO have updated their weather warning to say that 'Across Wales and Western England snow will more likely be confined to high ground.'
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Morning everyone. Another lurker drawn into the excitement enough to make a post.
Hope to see some of the white stuff at least falling later on today.
Looking increasingly interesting though with possible showers overnight and who knows where that feature coming down from the north will track.
30 miles or so west and some of our region may see some more snow.
Next week seems to be looking cold and dry with an easterly flow and who knows, if the low pressure over the med decides to push some disturbances our way maybe even some more snow!
Certainly seems like the best period of winter weather for some years to me.
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I liked this post from Chionomaniac on the old model thread about the 6Z
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If I could programme a snow and cold lovers run into the GFS then the FI of the 06Z would be pretty much it for a perfect scenario. Pity it's FI really.
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It was almost as if someone had actually programmed it to churn out the perfect scenario for cold and snow !
Not April the 1st is it??
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I've still got 'Mud and Snow' tyres on my Freelander, wonder if I should finally change them for proper winter ones ??!!
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Nice to see the mean 850hpa temp down below freezing for the entire run after the 1st Jan
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I'm a long time lurker on here and very rarely post, but some of the charts from the GFS 06Z are almost beyond belief so couldn't help myself!
Looking forward to the informed dissection of the supporting ensembles etc. from various members that I hold in very high regard, even when they disagree!
Here's hoping the 12Z model runs continue the general theme even though it's unlikely they will be quite as spectacular.
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And as if by magic the GFS 6z has pretty much gone the same way as the Parallel run !
Phantom easterly chasing has begun ...
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Looking through the meager amount of posts in the model thread (sure sign of the models not playing ball!) there does seem to be some glimmers of hope for about 9-10 days away. The GFS Parallel run particularly has been showing an easterly around the end of Jan for the past couple of runs.
A new model that is not 'live' yet but is scheduled to replace the current GFS system April/May this year so may not be a complete 'straw clutcher' !
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Managed -7.6oC overnight and still -7oC so another ice day coming up?
Congrats to those that broke through -8 !
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-5.9oC here now so may get to -7 or lower by the end of the night!
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Got down to -5.7oC last night and currently -1.1oC so definitely an ice day here, first one in years I think.
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There's also a feature modeled on Sunday which currently looks to cross the east of our region coming down from the north. Think this was mentioned earlier today and is still there!
Currently showing as snow on GFS and the French Arpege short range model:
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In general terms the GFS does seem to be holding onto the colder air longer on this run and the latest Meto update seems to go along with this.
I think next week could get very interesting for many.
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Hi all.
Another long time lurker here although I have insanely posted once or twice in the model output thread !
I remember some of the frontal snow events from times past so would be great to see another one this year but as ever its all very much on a knife edge.
No snow so far in my part of North wilts.
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An interesting recent comment from Ian F over in the SW regional thread,
quote:
Yes, some troubling-looking selections of output this morning for early next week, more especially for N and E of W Country. But exceptionally low confidence on what will unfold. Interestingly, latest UKMO overnight prognosis through Feb builds Atlantic block with us on colder eastern side/troughing... we may have the experience of current period to unravel yet again further down the line
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Been a long time lurker but not posted much at all so far.
Looks an interesting evening/night and you never know, it might produce some snowy weather for at least some of the region!
Not sure if this has been posted here already but another member over on the model thread posted a link to this site that seems very good for following the track of the overnight 'feature' via satellite pictures:
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Thanks, could be an interesting evening especially as I am located on the predicted northern flank of this!
Thanks for the link to the satellite animations as well, great to watch.
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Long time lurker but first time posting -the Meto have issued a weather warning for some high winds in the SW later tonight, is that associated with this Polar Low, if that is indeed what it is?
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I thought 100m plus for general term for high ground?
And as if by magic the GFS 6z has pretty much gone the same way as the Parallel run !
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->
in Regional
Posted
I can confirm that here in NE Wilts it's gone very quickly from heavy rain to sleet and now snow