dec10snow
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Posts posted by dec10snow
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2 hours ago, jethro said:
Sorry, I had already gone to work when you posted and missed it until now. The highest points on Mendips is in and around Priddy/Charterhouse, there are some lovely walks and lots of public footpaths. Or if you don't fancy trekking cross country and risk getting lost, head to Stockhill Woods just outside Priddy, it's Forestry Commission so you can wander at will. There are broad, hard surface paths that criss cross the woods or you can wander off through the woods, plenty of parking there too. The woods are about 280 meters asl, so if it's marginal it's usually snow up there, being mostly conifer, when there's snow it's like walking through an alpine landscape This is what it looks like up there (don't get excited, this is a couple of years old).
No worries, thanks for that though I’ll bare that in mind for future. Ended up having a short walk (compromised with the Mrs ) and walked up Beacon Batch.
There was a bit of sleet mixed in with the rain confirmed by a windscreen splodge test on the way there and then had a minute long ice pellet/soft hail shower of some sort, but that was all I got to see. Great views nonetheless and would definitely be amazing on a clear summer day.
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As the radar suggests, definitely falling as snow on Dartmoor
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5 minutes ago, Had Worse said:
Stolen from the NW thread... looooook
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17 minutes ago, jethro said:
Morning, are you home today? I'm at work near Bristol so don't expect anything there, also think if there's anything here it'll be gone by the time I get home. If you're at work too, there's no one on Mendip snow watch
Where would the best place to go if I went up there for a walk/to get good views/to see some snow today??
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1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
It's probably a similar temperature here. Just subscribed to NW radar so I can track any potential snow. Last time I did that I think Wales and the west country done well.
BUT Jay....... Will it snow in Cardiff?
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Two rumbles of thunder here... ⛈
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Got 50mph gusts predicted for most of the day here tomorrow, no warning though which is odd, usually 45-50mph is the highest we get and that tends to be accompanied by a yellow warning from the Met.
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In contrast to the extreme events that you guys have had this morning... it’s peeing down here... shame it’s so heavy as it won’t do the ground any good!
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Looks like we finally got a bit of rain last night that wasn’t just drizzle that’s hardly enough to dampen the ground! Could do with a bit more today.... if we’re going to have such a dull cloudy day at least give us a bit of rain!
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Yeah I’m surprised that there’s nothing on the radar given some of the cloudscapes about!
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Anyone know why Estofex don’t seem to have been issuing forecasts last couple days?
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Ooooh... From Convective weather:
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 26 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 27 May 2018
ISSUED 22:40 UTC Fri 25 May 2018
ISSUED BY: Dan
Plume events are often fraught with uncertainty, primarily due to poor NWP modelling of deep convection generated by mid-level instability. In these types of situations, including today, it is best to take a broad-brush approach and try to highlight trends, rather than specifics - basically, expect the unexpected! The latest model guidance is much further north and a lot quicker with developments than data had been suggesting just 12 hours ago. It is likely some areas within the SLGT could remain lightning free, and the forecast may need to be altered if confidence improves - it rarely goes to plan...
There are reasonable signs for an area of elevated convection to be drifting across S / SE England at the beginning of this forecast period, continuing to move NW-wards through Saturday morning. Questionable as to how much lightning there will be with this activity given weakening instability, though forecast profiles do suggest some reasonable shear to help with some organisation. Either way, whatever activity there is will likely weaken with time as it continues to migrate across the Midlands and into Wales.A secondary pulse of elevated convection may develop and move NW-wards across SW England late morning into the afternoon, which would have a better chance of producing lightning - but this is a weaker signal amongst model guidance.This then leaves a window of opportunity during the afternoon for surface-based thunderstorms to occur. However, the atmosphere will be largely capped by a warm nose at 850-900mb, and so despite increasing instability it is possible very little will actually develop. Greatest potential perhaps across Dorset, Somerset and Gloucestershire, but this very much dependent on enough surface heating to break the cap, which is uncertain due to the potential for extensive mid/upper level cloud associated with earlier elevated convection. Should an isolated thunderstorm develop, it may be severe, capable of producing hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and localised surface water flooding.The potential for thunderstorms then increases during Saturday evening and night, with numerous elevated thunderstorms likely to develop over the English Channel containing frequent lightning and perhaps some hail. The vast majority of model guidance would suggest thunderstorms will move to the NW, putting SW England and the West Country at greatest risk, broadly Isle of Wight westwards. However, ECMWF has been very consistent over several runs (now joined by 12z EURO4) to produce a much more bifurcated flow, which would then take a very active cluster of thunderstorms NE-wards over Hampshire, Sussex and towards the London area by the early hours of Sunday.Given the large spread of possible areas affected, it is difficult to pin down a MDT area with any significant confidence - though worth stressing the ECMWF (and EURO4) tends to have a good handle of elevated convection, and its consistent signal over multiple runs is somewhat reassuring. As a result, have followed these trends for the MDT - though if other models are correct, this may need shifting westwards to cover more of Devon and Cornwall.-
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28 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
Hmm methinks it's a scare... radar is empty, prognosis forecasts suggested something over Cornwall/Devon earlier but looks to have faded...
It's still overcast, and scrambled it's way to the heady heights of 11.8°C ....should be ashamed of itself, naff really..
Yes just been thinking that myself wondering where tf these showers were going to be coming from! Overcast/dull/grey/boring here for what seems like day 200
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The Met now have a yellow warning out for heavy showers for some parts of the region later today, lovely ? though saying that I would like the extreme of 40mm in a couple hours as they state is possible!
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What sort of rainfall totals are we looking at for tomorrow then, Met O going for 8+ hours of heavy rain tomorrow (keeps chopping and changing), Wunderground is saying 24mm which is more than enough on sodden ground!!
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Haven’t been keeping up with the thread, but just come in to say the ground temperature is clearly dropping to around freezing now as all surfaces are freezing over where there’s been snow melt, should mean any snow later will easily but does mean there will be a layer of ice underneath!!
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Mad to think that whilst we’re sitting around 12C with sunny spells, in 24 hours time the temperature will be at 1C and won’t get above it the whole day!
Good old British weather eh?
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1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Check this image by the Netweather NMM model, certainly the potential for a few storms today developing around M4 and moving northwards.
Current showers should intensify over course of the day.
Hmmm M4 northwards, now where have we heard that before?
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6 minutes ago, matt111 said:
Cab see why if you've been stuck under the rain that arrived here a couple of hours ago as it's not exactly light rain.
I think the Met nailed their warning to be honest, we’ve been under the rain since about 12 I think and we’re just on the edge of it for a good few hours, places to the west of me have been sat under the heavy rain all day so they must be saturated!
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22 minutes ago, festivalking said:
Alot of rain here in the last 24 hours. 1.6 inches in old money.
Looking at stations around here it looks like we’re getting towards about half of that at around 20mm now, very wet out there
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Just now, Frosty hollows said:
Looking at tonight's radar...some very heavy echoes in Cornwall atm. Is that a squall line extending through Truro southward or just a heavy shower band?
Was wondering the same myself, looks impressive on the radar!
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Yellow rain warning out for some parts for tomorrow
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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:
Barely any rain fell here, from this entire set up.
You’re lucky! All ground saturated, back lanes have started flooding, I’d imagine the River Tone is also rather higher than usual!
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For all you gin crazy folk
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Good shout from Leon, just read back the last couple pages and it’s just a load of crap, like Paul said in there, the ‘banter’ needs to be relaxed because it’s just monotonous, makes me want to not bother reading!!