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Djdazzle

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Everything posted by Djdazzle

  1. Djdazzle
    Lovely going for a late evening walk with temps still in the 20s.
  2. Djdazzle
    Not suggesting 35C - merely the point that the maxes can be undercooked, regardless of the conditions / synoptics.
  3. Djdazzle
    Sometimes the maxes have been out by a lot more than 3C. I’ve seen 25C on GFS charts forecast 6 hours out when in reality 30C was reached.
  4. Djdazzle
    And as GFS tends to undercook maxes, you could probably add 2 or 3 degrees to that figure.
  5. Djdazzle
    Is it really that different from what was modelled? I remember posting last week that there would cloud issues with a moist humid airflow off a coolish Atlantic. Wall to wall sunshine was never being shown for Mon - Wed.
  6. Djdazzle
    The tendency in recent years has been for 24 hour plume events, so if this output verifies we will break that particular issue. Couple with the very dry ground, there is the potential for a very significant hot spell. However, as has been mentioned, we aren’t there yet!
  7. Djdazzle
    I think cloud amounts were always going to be a pain this week although yesterday from mid morning was beautiful here. Cloud expected to break again today.
  8. Djdazzle
    It must be good if you are unable to find any negatives!
  9. Djdazzle
    Let’s just hope it’s not the summer version of “That ECM!” Good to see it has support from the ensembles.
  10. Djdazzle
    The dry ground will certainly help in getting the temps as high as possible.
  11. Djdazzle
    ECM will prob see temps into the low 90s.
  12. Djdazzle
    ECM 12z is showing heatwave conditions.
  13. Djdazzle
    You know a lot more about weather than me, but the other day you were saying that it was was very unlikely that the Azores high would build east, yet there is now a lot of support for that scenario. Is it a case of things can change despite the background signals?
  14. Djdazzle
    Countryfile forecast also looks nothing like the UKMO raw output.
  15. Djdazzle
    And at 144. Certainly not supporting the UKMO.
  16. Djdazzle
    GFS 12z, apart from a few days from Thu, is a very good run all the way to end of FI. Temps still low 20s in south even on Friday. How some can say that’s poor is beyond me.
  17. Djdazzle
    Rained but it was hardly worth the effort!
  18. Djdazzle
    High pressure looks stronger and the uppers are higher so hoping that any clag is less of an issue. Yellow grass would be the main result if the 18z came off as modelled.
  19. Djdazzle
    Come on GFS, pub run special please! As for the CFS, does anybody really take it seriously? I remember that it gets looked at about a month prior to Christmas Day and within the space of 12 hours, flips from sub zero to sub tropical!
  20. Djdazzle
    Great ECM esrlier but way too soon to say it’s a trendsetter. Tamara has suggested that the Azores high may ridge in towards the final part of the month, so maybe the ECM was toying with that scenario.
  21. Djdazzle
    Hopefully GFS 18z FI doesn’t verify because it’s awful.
  22. Djdazzle
    Can’t post chart at the moment, but the GFS mean at 240 looks a lot better than the op, although still not overly settled.
  23. Djdazzle
    I would be worried but it’s in deep FI - the evolution beyond 180 has been changing a lot from run to run.
  24. Djdazzle
    GFS 12z looking very good up to 168. Not much point going beyond that. EDIT: UKMO looking very good also.
  25. Djdazzle
    Yes I think June will end up being exceptionally dry, if not consistently hot.
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