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supernova

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    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Thought so!!looks much better than ecm!!is there any pressure charts with the ukv?!the one im lookin at just has wind direction!!

    1_surface_pressure.png

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn MSLP mB chart

    WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM
    UKV is a high resolution numerical weather prediction model run by the UK Met Office

    There's everything but pressure on Netweather's version @sheikhy but you can find it on the other side hour by hour.

    • Thanks 1

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    BBC Look North "No chance of a White Christmas in Lincolnshire, mostly cloudy with occasional outbreaks of rain over the Christmas period into Boxing Day." No hesitation, no mention of troublesome modelling. Clearly relying on the ECM - rightly or wrongly? Looking forward to finding out. Head saying one thing, heart saying another, but brave to bet against the pros!

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    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On so many levels I’m praying ECM comes out in support of Slidergate. Not at all confident by even the tiniest stretch of my imagination but it would be quite the turnaround if so. Reckon Uber wouldn’t have a big enough fleet to transport the required quantum of humble pie needed for some naysayers on here—not that it’s about being right or wrong (no really it’s not) but there’s been Defcon 4 levels of smugness on here at times this week. Come on ECM!

    • Like 1

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    22 minutes ago, nicknacknoo said:

    Disappointing though this chase has been, I think it was Mr. Murr who said that for proper Greenie highs you need to see those red heights in that region. We've never had that modelled so no surprise t hat it appears to have been easily eroded on nwp output. 

    Mr Murr also said despite the models struggling with this sort of evolution our latest chase was heading speedily towards a March '13 redux and likely to pan out just dandy (or words to that effect, on Twitter). He might still be right (hope so) but I very much doubt it based on current output. Am stubbornly refusing to wake up and smell the coffee for another 24 hours despite being acutely aware I'm likely to be drinking double expresso with Tiramisu and coffee liqueur to finish this time tomorrow, especially looking at the latest update from GFS which puts us even further out the game  before surrendering completely to the perennially Grinchy Azores high. Stupid UK weather and even stupider models. It's like the prettiest girl at work spending a whole week begging you for a lift to the Christmas party to discover she really only wanted a cheap ride so she could snog the smug hunk from marketing while you were left eating curled up prawn sarnies with big Maureen from accounts (no offence Maureen).

    • Like 4

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    51 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Not offended at all. I have had egg on my face too many times pre computer days and using computer models to take offence. All get it wrong at times. although I do find this latest forecast/model, confusion' shall I call it, as bad as any I have seen in a very long time. Just what the reason is I have no idea. As most on here know I use the 500 mb charts to try and get some idea of what may happen with the weather in the next 6-10 days, sometimes out to 14.

    Taking a look this morning at them

    They have slowly evolved over the past few days, The NOAA outputs are generally the more reliable and least prone to sudden changes , so looking at their outputs and the two main blocks west and east have been a feature for over a week. Beneath both of them the 500 mb flow has been mostly a westerly pattern. Maybe it is this configuration that has 'foxed' the models? It is not something I recall seeing before. As you can see on the NOAA chart it is still there. How the weather will play out over the next week or so, is still far from clear. Getting milder over the whole UK in the next 3-4 days looks pretty certain but beyond that then jh is going to find his place on the fence!

    Not sure I worded my intended compliment as well as I could have done @johnholmes but my point was that no model beats experience and judgement, of which you remain a well-respected advocate.

    • Like 7

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    And the award for the least worst model goes to ……

    @johnholmes ! Cos even with all our computing advances, for now at least you can’t beat experience and human intervention, as the MetO proves time and time again. Still not perfect (not meaning you John obvs), but once again the models have played us beautifully because in the end the weather is a law unto itself which is why, in truth, we all find it so fascinating.

    • Like 3

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    Quite the bust for cold this morning and anyone that says I told you so, frankly, can do one, because this could have gone either way. Tempted to say it still could change but cross model agreement from the big three is pretty convincing this morning so odds largely against another complete flip but, hey, it is Christmas, so maybe the weather Gods will cut us some slack! The north+south positioning and elongation/separation of the slider low was always knife edge but the sudden disintegration of heights to our NW appears to have been the final straw. Will look forward to hearing from some of our more experienced posters as to the cause. Been a fun ride this last week but sadly the sledge is now firmly back in the loft, albeit ready for a dust down should circumstances change. Merry Christmas all. Now just need to establish who talked about White Club….

    • Like 2

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Jason T said:

    Blimey, 149 pages since Saturday PM, You know the cold Empire is marching at that page level WOW !!!. Be time for a new thread at this rate. Simply mind boggling at the moment where will the Cold stop come xmas day / eve and dare I say it snow fall too, Cannot still rule anything out, saga goes on folks. Great posts too.

    Tbf 128 pages was an argument about hummus. I think the chick peas won but the tahini ran them close. Onto the ECM….

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    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    Spectacular level of trolling on here and online this morning. Why people feel the need to turn a positive interest in the weather into personal, negative, or ego-led comment I've no idea. Personal opinion, different interpretation, challenging perspectives all absolutely fine, but deliberately provocative and bolshy posts serve no purpose other than to highlight a lack of empathy and an apparent need for attention. What some people seem to forget is that how you say something is so often just as, if not more important, than what you say. Still, GFS clearly affected by the tone as it taints earlier runs with slight incursion of milder air but semantics still being resolved - broader pattern all good so far. 

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    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    Remarkable consistency for placement of the low from MOGREPS although significant variations of its resulting exit and therefore variable wintry output. At least a couple in there like GFS control….nothing much short of epic. Several leaving most of the country practically snowless from any frontal activity too. Still plenty to figure out but overall direction of travel absolutely tantalising.

    image.thumb.png.98f73dc340a65960ba70bbe0018b94d9.pngimage.thumb.png.902566e1a5fb54ebf4bb9429cfc18267.png

    • Thanks 1

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by supernova

    Just gonna go round and pick up all the towels that were thrown in over the last couple of days….more than enough to keep everybody warm during the upcoming cold spell! Quite how cold, quite how snowy, quite how long lasting, absolutely no idea yet, and may even need all these towels to mop up the tears if the models flip again as we close in on Christmas. But favourable shifts today—as many hoped there might be. Now imagine what it was like when THAT ECM did us at 72 hrs or less a few years back. I lost count of the Booms! that got burst that year (including mine). Christmas is back on, if only temporarily and not for all, so enjoy it whilst you can. More changes to come but GEFS tell the story well….still big uncertainty by Xmas Eve (96-120 hrs and onwards). 

    541569756_gfs-london-gb-515n-0e2.thumb.png.78ef30700af6bd7364fb9882479b8068.png

    • Like 5

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    0z means 0 oclock - 12z midday, that is the time the data is from though, the runs don't start until hours after because all the data has to be collected, the ukmo and GFS are initialised at 1530 in the case of the 12z runs and the ECM at 1800, adjust accordingly for other runs, 0z obviously 0330 and 0600, GFS has 4 runs though, 6 and 18z, just add 3 hours 30 on for those, to fully come out ukmo takes 45 minuutes (ish), ECM an hour and GFS about an hour and half, probably longer now they've upgraded the resolution.

    Anybody would think you've been model watching a while Feb....

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