[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

There is an awful lot of straw clutching going on this morning. 

You're right @Met4Cast, the models don't' know what the hell's going on.

You did mean the models, right? 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

A wet, windy and wild Storm Corrie or a white Christmas for the south midlands north with cold to extend thereafter….take your pick! Haven’t got a Scooby and neither have the models because they can’t work out the shape of the Atlantic low (one slice or two Sir?) and the southerly strength of the blocking wedge. A complete flip as GFS/GEM and all other “lesser” models go cold but UKMO/ECM do a u-turn, blow up the low in situ and go milder. NOT resolved, but that won’t stop people claiming a definitive outcome based on model preference despite the fact there are absolutely no prizes on offer for guessing correctly. See you tonight. Winter is not over, whatever gets posted.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

 

I think it was clear to see.

Scotland in game but most out of it, I still think this has some room for manoeuvre but time is narrowing. Saving Xmas might be too much of an ask now.

Day 6 00z v 12z 

Remember children, it is never too late to save Christmas. There is always the mighty JMA (and all of tomorrow’s runs of course)

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Well it's all gone as wobbly as a hastily-thrown together festive trifle this morning but such complicated dynamics were never going to be solved readily and I remain hopeful the cream will rise to the top and we end up with a UKMO/GEM (and to a slightly lesser extent this morning's early-stage ECM) solution in the reliable.

GFS has stubbornly refused to fully embrace the Christmas party vibe, preferring instead to loiter in the doorway drinking copious amounts of egg nog and keeping at least 200km away from the other models whilst trying to work out whether busting some flashy moves on the dance floor would be a technical breach of any current climatic guidance. Lots to be resolved, patience advisable and certainly not boring, but much like Downing Street I'm fairly confident they'll be a party somewhere come Christmas but quite when, where and how much drama will unfold thereafter remains as predictable as BoJo's response to Omicron. Looking forward to the 12z's although I fear it'll be tomorrow or even Tuesday before we're any the wiser. 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

11 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

A bit of topic - but people should give this a read - quite interesting. https://ams.confex.com/ams/27WAF23NWP/webprogram/Handout/Paper273676/GFS4cycle_2015_NWP_Chicago_15A.pdf

Very valid , and model related I would have thought. Summary is pertinent Good read, thx @Updated_Weather

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

ECM240 could even be a reload but no point looking for trees when we’re already knee deep in the woods. IMBY posters fretting they’re going to miss out on frontal snow needn’t panic, we’re all going to be cold enough for multiple chances if the latest output verifies, and it’s still way early to be guessing where the white stuff might or might not appear seven days hence. Big changes in 24 hours which means things could look very different again tomorrow. Keep the faith and tell no one but cracking charts tonight. 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

MOGREPS gone from ugly to more interesting overnight. Low taking a more southerly track on the majority, reflected by lower temps (1.5m) and increased snow chances by Boxing Day morning. Trend is our friend. (Charts courtesy of TWO)

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

ECM EPS….Op dips below the mean by Xmas Eve but not without support and overall direction of travel all good.

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes , I’d take 25cm of snow thanks

Just seen 240. Even better and more in the game. JFF this far out but anyone calling this a bust very premature this morning.

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

If this plays out as per ECM there’s going to be a lot of relieved lurkers and posters this morning. Snow levels and location pointless at this range but you get the idea. Still believe southward correction likely. We’re in a straight Easterly by the day after Boxing Day says ECM Op.

.

 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

Not worried. Assuming the trigger low forms as modelled it will track steadily more south and become more elongated, the uppers will be colder, the block will be stronger. Never any different. Great forum tonight. Night.

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

14 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

meaning what?

As in I think it might be better than that. Perfectly on track for the undercut.

Edit: Well that didn’t age well. 168 not quite the gig.

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

144 should be very good

Think you might be underplaying it. *Hits Refresh on Meteociel*

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

How’s it looking at T0 sheikhy ??

Perfect, surely? Clearly going to be rip-snorting. 
 

Edit: I do actually think it will as won’t blow up the low GFS style.

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

Not unsurprisingly, GFS Op in the upper quartile of its suite, particularly from Xmas Eve onwards

 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

The only Boom to be heard tonight is the sound of defeat being snatched from the jaws of victory based on this cruddy output. Significant differences inter runs and as @Met4Cast said a few posts up, too much energy going into the slider low which means it phases earlier and more to the WNW of us than before. Stark differences by Xmas Eve. No point getting worked up about what may or may not happen 7/8 days out. Much could change over the next 48 hours. Gonna go read @snowking's earlier post again to cheer myself up!

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

Increasing chances of Christmas cold 

Cross model agreement for Atlantic low colliding with robust Greenie block and ensuing battleground 

Continental flow, low dew points, good chance (words chosen carefully) it'll be cold enough for snow somewhere over Xmas period 

Time for upgrades - significant detail still to be resolved - of course also still potential for shortwave shocker or slider positioning drama 

What's not to like? Merry Christmas fellow Netweatherers, not sure the festive chase for cold gets any more fun than this. Suggest you all chill your beans, open a can (or whatever takes your fancy), and enjoy the show. 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

GFS Op plummets to the bottom of its own (short) ensembles from Boxing Day. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong obvs. Control very much at the other extreme.

 

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

7 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Zoiks.....I'm busy at work and just grabbing lunch... but the ECM 240h I've just caught sight of made my spit part of my sandwich onto the desk....

Presumably the Iceberg @Catacol?

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

Just girding my loins for another onslaught of BOOM!'s (or the opposite) post the crucial, critical, vital, pivotal and definitive 12z runs which aren't actually going to make any difference to the weather whatsoever and will likely need until late into the weekend or even just afterwards to solve a complex upstream pattern before we have any real confidence around conditions for the Christmas period. GFS tendency to underestimate any Euro block and ECM's desperate desire to usher in another faux BFTE very much in evidence again this morning.

MetO commentary/MOGREPS/UKMO/GEM all backing some sort of hybrid solution including a knife-edge UK battleground scenario later next week but still much to be decided. Either way, model watching is going to be very entertaining over coming days with plenty at stake and therefore significant emotion on display. Gotta love the wild west winter weather chase, way better than anything currently bothering my telly 

For what it's worth, I'm (slightly) favouring a positive outcome (for coldies) as the main model ensembles have all trended colder over recent runs, including the stubborn GFS (which would have looked even better if the Op hadn't gone off on one), although quite how favourable remains impossible to pin down just yet. Ask me again in 48 hrs.....

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

ECM stonking but we absolutely do not have cross model agreement - much still to be resolved around PV placement and slider track in particular. I’ve booked my ticket for Boomtown but won’t be boarding until at least Mon/Tues next week!

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

Likely to be a very emotional week based on the number of BOOMS! on offer tonight. Promising synoptics (no doubt about that) but we're still quite some days away from any certainty around the shape of the Greenie high or thereafter the exact position of the all important slider which so often are all a little bit weerrr, a little bit weeeeeey, and quite a bit dodgy right 'til the death. Hold onto your hats, preferably tin ones, as there could be a quite a lot of toys being thrown out of prams over the next few days. Let's hope not. The Artic profile as already mentioned is at least cold comfort and as good as I remember seeing for years should it come to pass.

As a cautionary reality check, and I appreciate the GFS Op and Control are at the upper end in the latter stages, the GEFS suite overall have trended nicely seasonal for my location but certainly not in Boom territory and generally no colder than the 850s we had only the other week (which delivered very little in the way of the white stuff unless you were very north or high). Just sayin' - all very tantalising but I'm not yet ready to buy a one way ticket to Boomtown. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

22 minutes ago, knocker said:

Fine

Deleted. Drawn into unnecessary semantics. Always enjoy your posts Knocker - carry on. 

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

Significant trend colder on GFS ensembles compared to anything yesterday. Good direction of travel albeit currently well short of a golden ticket for the Polar Express. In fact potentially going somewhere interesting but stuck in a clunky old diesel carriage that smells a bit farty. Maybe the ECM can upgrade us to an Azuma with free wifi and a G&T later…

[Model output discussion - closing in on Winter]

Looking more cold snap than cold spell this morning unless UKMO is right which puts up a more robust Greenland block compared to the rest of the models. Any 2010 comparisons remain off the mark for now but plenty of time for change. GEFS ensembles have us heading back toward average temperatures quite quickly but I’m unconvinced by much beyond 144/168, evolution looks overblown from the west to me. Least there’s something to talk about!