supernova
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Posts posted by supernova
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*checks uppers* * nods appreciatively*
As you were....
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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
could replace That ECM on 5th Dec 2012
Which looked equally as splendid from 216 alllllllll the way to 72hrs until it left the party with the keys to bar and without saying goodbye! Cross model agreement is good. Let's hope it stays like that for the next week....very much hope so.
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GFS 12z Op and Control very similar track out to the weekend (on the ensembles). Colder end of the suite, absolutely, but outliers....mmm, I'll let you decide (but I would argue probably not - so far!).
Edit: Easier to see respective tracks out to Mon 8th here:-
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So much to resolve beforehand but after a year hibernating in tier 4 the pub run’s finally had enough and gone down the Rovers for a full-on lock in with drinks on the house all night and the Bangles tribute band shortly appearing live dressed in see through Princess Leia bikinis and a note from the missus saying for one evening only it’s a free pass with no morning interrogation so fill your boots and don’t come home until you’re good and drunk. Very snowy. Numerous arctic lows. As much chance of that happening as the paragraph above actually being true but not a bad way to sign off Sunday after what’s been a tortuous few days of baiting from the ECM and co.
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Tonight's ECM certainly better than recent days but will be interesting to see where it sits in its ensembles. By no means a nailed on evolution due to such marginal differences from the trigger/limpet low - could be days not hours before this is resolved but in very general terms we are heading colder with multiple options of interest, if not quite the clean and snowy beast perhaps envisaged (yet).
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8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Until the easterly is in the 48 hr window..convection and infer are pointless....pop up north sea features are a classic...in such situations....
6 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:I agree.
Such as a mesoscale low perhaps and that which made Jan 2010 so memorable. Good article about it here https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wea.740
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All Easterly counties feeling more than a little raw next Sunday if those winds and uppers on the GFS Op come to pass. Would it be dry though? More than enough temperature differential for convective snow showers but one of our more knowledgable members will no doubt tell me whether that's very likely or not in those conditions. Precipitation chart suggests maybe so.
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15 minutes ago, General Cluster said:
Come on, peeps, chins up? Any minute now, today's 'massive', 'crucial', immense', 'mahoosive', 'life-defining' GFS 12Z will be rolling out!
You missed "vital"
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46 minutes ago, birdman said:
Fair points. Just seems to me they're as useful as a chocolate fireguard but as you say, they're valid charts nonetheless
I suppose at the moment FI starts in 5 days time!
Much less I reckon, @birdman, probably more like 3 although the broad journey toward cold snap rather than cold spell (as it stands) remains likely. The earlier post by @Pennine Ten Foot Drifts nailed it perfectly actually.
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35 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:
GFS 06z op pretty much a mild outlier all the way throughout the run. Some much, much colder runs in there
No thanks GFS 06z Op, we'll take the Control if you please. Admittedly at the colder end of the ensembles but still viable. The main point being that if the limpet low disrupts mostly south rather filling in situ or heading N/NE we end up with a clean Easterly and soon afterwards a variation of this...
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57 minutes ago, TEITS said:Normally I would agree if it wasn't for this mornings UKMO.
Very complicated set up really. The midweek low has one shortwave moving E, another S and the main low remains in situ and then tries to move N!!
I shall stick with what I said earlier and that is this low will move S along with the shortwave at a much faster pace than what the ECM/GFS is suggesting. The ECM can be wrong with the predicted snowfall for this weekend and early next week being dreadfully way off from its predictions a few days ago. I said as much at the time because its forecasts never made any sense to me.
On a positive note you could argue that whilst the 06 GFS is poor early on, the latter stages are far better than a few days ago. So its swings and roundabouts really as I do not expect this to be our last chance. Seems N blocking will continue to be a feature for a while yet.
Glad you're back posting @TEITS and especially appreciative when like some of the other more knowledgeable members on here (whose contributions I readily seek out) you stick your neck out and back it up with tangible detail that explains why you favour a certain outcome. Hope you're right and glad to be reading your insightful comments again.
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In fact the opposite of Dec 12 when the ECM in particular had counted down a potent Easterly only to scupper all chances at the last minute. This time the ECM has been reluctant throughout which is why so many have probably still got the jitters because it remains one of the better models in the crucial 5-6 day timeframe. Not sure which scenario I prefer tbh, ECM fully onboard only to kill us dead at the finish or vaguely indifferent only to delight us nearer the time?! For those in any doubt, let me remind you...
5th Dec 2012 looking out 192 hrs on the 12z as the BFTE roars in...
One run later, the roar still looks primed, then 12z on the 6th, 96hrs still looking good...
Even closer on the 0z with no dramas and then 72hrs on the 12z, when woollen layers and insulated boots were being hastily prepared...
Until the worst u-turn in ECM history destroyed the hearts and souls of a cold-loving nation not 12 hours later as the low slipped east, high pressure drifted across the UK and fathers across the nation had to tell their children that Santa wasn’t real after all...
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34 minutes ago, That ECM said:
It was 12z run in December 2012. Can’t remember the exact 5th maybe?
Still have nightmares about that particular countdown @That ECM. What a flip! And I’d told the kids to ready their sledges (lesson duly learned, this time I’m polishing the runners in secret!).
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32 minutes ago, Stu_London said:
last three runs it been fairly obdurate with its theme
Wins best word in a post competition @Stu_London
obdurate
adjective
stubbornly refusing to change one's opinion or course of action.
"I argued this point with him, but he was obdurate"
Model related only in as much as this perfectly defines the recent ECM, as Stu so succinctly points out.
Btw, Gem ensembles vs GEFS for Lincolnshire showing reasonable alignment but also that whilst a colder period almost certainly looms, its full extent and duration remains very much in doubt.
Edit: Ignoring the ECM op, it’s right at the top of its ensembles almost from the get go. Next!
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Cross model agreement scuppered by a damply uninspiring ECM and a messy Icon, but at least the UKMO is on board. GFS broadly signed up although Op doesn’t get there very cleanly and breaks down rather quickly too. Para blummin’ cold to the end and the GEFS mean still great including the Control which is ace throughout and finishes with a significant snow event followed by a solid high over the whole of the country so we can enjoy the snow. Could be a lot worse but ECM’s stubborn reluctance to join the ice party still casting a mean-spirited shadow on an otherwise encouraging set of 00s if we ignore the French model, which in light of Brexit we probably should until they give us back our fish! Take that you scallop-stealing Frenchies....
PS, quite fond of our French neighbours really.
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44 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
I’ll probably jinx it but I can’t see the ECM failing to bring the cold in from the north east next weekend looking at these ensembles for London!...
You're right Tim you'll probably jinx it! ECM has precedent of dashing all our hopes and it's trying once again I fear.
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Liking where the Para is heading....
Edit: Deep cold encroaching next Sunday and finally slipping away the following weekend but a frigid week in between. Too far out to have any real faith but by no means shoddy.-
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Not quite sure whether the ECM's been drinking Special Brew or Iron Brew out to 168 (I suspect the former) so waiting rather impatiently for the rest of the run but in the meantime have ordered up the chef's special, GFS Perb Number 2, which would presumably come with special dried ice and some frozen (chunky?) nips!
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31 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Not a Mediterranean wet fart! long way in FI though
32 minutes ago, Kentspur said:+1c uppers over Hastings and Dover sourced from Libya no thanks
Tbf guys your +1 uppers at 204hrs have got a much better chance of verifying than what the Para goes on to deliver at 342hrs+ but a worthy frame if only JFF. Hard for us not to get enthusiastic about a potential Easterly up here in Lincolnshire, not least this winter where we've had bugger all thus far, so fascinating model watching currently and the broad direction of travel remains encouraging, even if the details are too far out to debate with any confidence.
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34 minutes ago, Catacol said:
This post paints a rather different picture to what they are actually suggesting. Any posters feeling instantly glum - go read what both are saying on twitter. Marco's post is particularly interesting in terms of what he doesnt say...and Matt is musing over impacts of the vortex displacement while making it very clear that there is still a disconnect between strat and trop. He is certainly not touting a westerly burst of any significance.
Remember that ECM is processing significantly more strat data than gfs. As the strat breakup occurs then ECM has to be the model of choice. All those with less strat resolution are more likely to be subject to swings and inaccuracy.
MetO own recent blog agrees with you Catacol, thankfully.
Opposing forces battle for winter supremacy | Official blog of the Met Office news team
BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UKThe second half of December has seen dramatic swings between different weather patterns. Storm Bella brought strong winds and flooding, while the current flow of air...-
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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Well 2020 is drawing do a close... maybe time to leave you with the JMA at T192:
What’s possible when there’s no vortex!
My last post of the year.
I would like to thank everyone who posts in here, and everyone who reads the stuff we write. It has been a horrible year, and for me, this is one of the few hobbies that I have been able to carry on doing, so whilst we may not agree about every shortwave, I think we might agree about the long wave picture, which is that we need each other.
Best regards for a happier 2021!
Mike
Nice post. How about a SSW to celebrate, Mike?! Thanks to all posters, in fact, on whom so many of us rely.
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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
To get some cold longevity out of an atlantic high we need a cut off wedge over Iceland to keep the atlantic alligned on a very sharp NW > SE Axis, when you weaken the wedge the jet axis softens up to a more positive angle ( more towards west to East )
The ECM is the worst of the bunch however overall its modelling has been pretty poor.
Compare the ECM 216 1st the GEM 216 you see the key difference which leads to a milder ECM.
Thats why even post 168 you never see anu proper cold air over the UK
6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:Hi Heath i will try and explain...
1,we need the trough to be cut off and to drop a lot further S/SE as much as possible
2,this will then open up the heights over the top
3,once 1 and 2 do that then the advection would take place from east to west
of course this is just based on that chart and it is day ten,the modelling will come up with different types of scenarios up until then.
V helpful posts both. At least this year we get the chance to examine and discuss charts across all models with genuine potential, although no real BOOM-worthy cold in the foreseeable as has been covered to death by Uppers-gate. Meaningful roads to
certainly better than we're used to and Strat activity bodes well. Lots to cheer in an otherwise mostly cheerless year!
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Just realised that if I’d have spent the same amount of hours doing overtime at work this winter that I’ve spent gawping at Siberian-sourced weather porn on the NW forum, I could have afforded a week in Lapland dressed in an elf costume throwing snowballs at Santa.
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19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
U realise it’s the worst based on those charts ?
Well I do now Blue. Soz. I'm an idiot..
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by supernova
The low deepens and pushes slightly north - fine margins. From this...
to this....
But at this range both could be completely wrong by an awful lot more than a hundred miles or so. Not gonna get hung up about such details this far out. Broad direction of travel still cold, but shows how quickly synoptics can turn from great to grating, as if we didn't need reminding. Couple more days of frayed nerves before we know for sure but the chase is fun, I guess. Kind of.