Tom D
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Posts posted by Tom D
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We had rain here as far as I can tell, although temperatures were 1.4c at midnight when it was quite heavy. It could easily have been a degree colder and have fallen as very heavy wet snow. I think the Met Office did a decent job given the cicumstances.
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Here is a link to the CET figures, monthly and annually since January 1659. Loads of fun and interest to be had!
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
:smiliz19:
What program can you view a .dat file in?
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Some very heavy rain overnight, the garden is soaked. Still, I thought the rain would wash the snow away but there's actually still some on the ground, albeit very slushy. Temp currently 1.6c with a low overnight of 1.2c.
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2.2c here currently with a maximum today of 3.8c which is about the warmest it's been since 17th December. Not expecting any snow tonight, it will likely be wet snow or sleet at best or rain otherwise and it'll be a treat to not have to slide around on the pavements any more. Still hoping we come in with a sub-zero CET and I'm also sure that winter is not over, January and February will probably bring more cold.
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Had to double-take when I looked at the thermometer just now... it's +3c! I'm not expecting any accumulating snow overnight or tomorrow, more than likely it will be rain throughout here especially with temperatures around 2-4c.
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24th November-24th December CET: -0.9C
The coldest run-up to Christmas since at least 1772 (when daily records began)
That is all the more startling because only a couple of years ago it was feared, if not thought, that record cold was no longer possible.
I thought last January was a cold month but so far, since late-November, it's been the coldest I've ever experienced in this country and although I'm only 20, that's quite something considering the exceptional heat the country has also experienced in my life time!
How does the year shape up in the record since 1910?
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A lovely Christmas Day here; no snow from the sky but plenty on the ground with a top temp of 0.4c. Very cold at the moment, -6.8c but a hard frost where there's not snow.
Confusing picture next week, not helped by the fact Peter Gibbs last night said 'we might be able to start talking about mild again'. From what I can see the temperature in this region is unlikely to be above 5/6c next Wednesday and the true mildness is over the southwest and Ireland. Then it's cold and frosty again by next weekend...
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No snow from the sky but still 2 inches on the ground from last Saturday; mostly frozen solid now. -1.8c this morning.
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The warmest prediction, by the way, would need 45 C to win ... and the average prediction needs 17 C to win ... thanks for coming and drive safely.
Haha! Thanks for that Roger. My prediction was a shameful 4.9c! Will likely be my worst prediction yet, more than 5c TOO HIGH and it was a below average prediction! :smiliz23: Just goes to show just how exceptional this month has panned out.
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Another bitter, calm day here. Was some weak sunshine earlier but now cloudy and temperature falling slowly. 0.4c currently, overnight low of -2.4c and high today of 1.1c.
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Certainly looks possible that we'll get the first sub-zero month since Feb 1986 (-1.1c) and possibly the coldest year since then too (8.74c). Will look very odd with an 8c month after so many 10c months consecutively!
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It does look as though once high pressure builds late tomorrow it will remain cold and settled for a while, possibly more than a week. I wouldn't expect most in land areas to get above 3/4c next Tuesday/Wednesday before a more south-easterly flow begins and brings colder surface temperatures from mainland Europe again late next week. Sub-zero December CET is looking rather likely now.
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Some tiny snow pellets or graupel in the air, quite windy. Temp 1.5c.
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I was slightly surprised when I checked the minimum temperature for last night; -13.1c at 00:36. Didn't expect that seeing as it was about -3c at 22:30.
Currently 0.3c with some high cloud around so looks like things might thaw out a bit today.
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The cold period began around the 23rd November, right? Can anyone figure out the average CET since that date because it must be extremely low... Even if the last 5/6 days of December are fairly normal, the month from 23rd Nov - 26th Dec must be one of the coldest early winter periods ever...?
EDIT: Just noticed this has already been discussed, looking forward to the results from Mr Data
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I'm ashamed of my prediction... it would take a pretty incredible mild spell to get it up to 4.9c after this start!
There's a realistic possibility now that it could end up below 0c for the month.
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We've had more snow overnight here in Leicester, got 3-5cm now.
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I'll go with a cold start but turning much milder mid-month towards Christmas. 4.9c.
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1-2cm here in Leicester, most roads are clear but some pavements have currently got slushy ice on which will freeze later today and it will be treacherous to walk on.
We've had some flurries this morning but nothing major.
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The number of people who think the Jan '87 storm was a Hurricane annoys me.
So many times have I given the explanation of why it wasn't.
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The pattern setting up is very similar to last year's and we know how that turned out. It's worth mentioning that runs like this morning's GFS are probably a best case scenario, based on past let-downs, although it looks increasingly like it will become cold (and snowy) don't take the specifics (date, time, temperatures, wind directions, precipitation) as gospel... though it's looking promising for another cold winter.
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So close with my 10.2c guess this month!
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I'm going to guess a chilly November. 6.2c.
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IMO, although spewing alot of crap into the atmosphere and oceans has effects and consequences, they are being exaggerated and misunderstood for selfish reasons.
I think a very slight rise has happened in the last 30 years, but nothing substantial enough to consider the doom mongering and nothing that has proven to be of significance to what has happened since humans have inhabited earth. We are indeed looking too deep into things. For this reason I have voted that the climate has remained the same.
I am saying the same because in the last 2000 years it has been warmer than it is today and there will always be fluctuations of warm and cold due to natural cycles, though eventually I see another Ice Age coming in again - in fact at the moment we are only in an inter-glacial period and I believe that over the most recent, say 200,000 years we have spent more time in an Ice Age than out of it.
We do not appear to know too much about the formation of an Ice Age but I suspect that poor summers where the winter snows do not melt has a lot to do with it.
Two very sound posts IMO. My thoughts exactly why I voted 'stayed the same'.
The Earth's climate has seen temperature fluctuations of a much greater scale and magnitude in it's long life, and people spend too much time analysing the last 100 years when we can tell from ice core analyses etc that flucatuations on a greater timescale and greater magnitude have happened before.
Perhaps it is too early to tell whether human output of CO2 into the atmosphere has had any real effect on temperatures; I know we're told CO2 is higher than ever in concentration, however we do not know Earth's way of dealing with it. Weren't previous Ice Ages preceeded by periods of high CO2 from melt-ice and global warming?
Last Nights ? Yesterdays Forecasting Failure
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Given the circumstances. It was hardly a catastrophic error was it. Imagine the fuss some people would have made if it had been snow when rain was forecast.