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Tom D

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    Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 3

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Tom D

    so how do you do the listening to lightning thing on a radio? I have fm/mw/lw - is am the same as mw?

    I think they just mean that the convection is interfering with the radio waves, so there's some crackling. On a clear day you wouldn't get this but on humid, thundery days like today you're likely to get some crackling from signal loss. Correct me if I'm wrong.

    http://en.wikipedia....i/Noise_(radio)

    Atmospheric noise is radio noise caused by natural atmospheric processes, primarily lightning discharges in thunderstorms.

    Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Also the CFS should come with a health warning!

    Meteociel - Modèle Numérique américain CFS

    The CFS is certainly showing a nice Greenland-Europe block after 400 hours. Will be interesting to keep track of this possible trend of a drastic change in weather patterns come mid-January.

    While the ECM and CFS at +240/252hrs look very dissimilar, the CFS eventually brings a decidedly similar set-up by +372, at least for the North Atlantic.

    ECM t+240

    CFS t+252

    CFS t+372

    Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tom D

    On another forum again somebody has put:-

    "12Z NAE is generally shallower again and has a less intense snow area as a result"

    What does this mean. Sorry to be a pain to everyone but im not really any good with the terminology etc.

    'Shallower' likely refers to the atmospheric pressure, which I assume is now not as low as today's earlier model run. This could mean that most areas that see snow will see very little, because the precipitation is also less intense on the same run.

    Hope this helps :)

    The Gfs ensemble 00z model shows the uk in a westerly type flow next week with pressure being higher across the south due to high pressure to the south or southwest of the uk and with low pressure to the north of the uk, it means that southern britain will become milder next week after a cold start but it also looks fairly dry but rather cloudy with some patchy drizzle but also brighter spells and not much chance of frost. The north of britain looks cooler and more unsettled with a stronger westerly flow and cold enough for mountain snow. The latest meto update suggests colder and more unsettled weather could spread further south during christmas but whether it does or not or how far south is impossible to say at this range but the main message is to make the most of the cold weather because it looks like temps will be back to normal or above through most of next week. It lalso looks like the snow tomorrow is downgrading but could still give 2-4cm in places and even some wet snow for london but no accumulations.

    Would you not also say that after about +120 a lot depends on the depth and speed of the two depressions to storm out of North America? If they were not as deep the high would end up giving the UK a more NW air flow and thus keeping things fairly average. I notice on the ensembles there is quite a spread in this area at the same time, indicating potentially the operational is overcooking the low pressure, so to speak.

    November Cet

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at the GEFS it appears we'll start off quite mild but there are signs that high pressure could build over northern Europe mid-month which may eventually lead to chillier weather (at last!).

    I'll go with a slightly above average 6.9c.

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