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Tom D

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Posts posted by Tom D

    October CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Sorry it's a bit late but I'll go for 11.9c.

    Currently the NW tracker is on 19.58... 9.8c above average, love that. Imagine the downward trend we could have. UK wide snow by the end of October anyone? rofl.gif

    Also, just looking at the year so far on the NW temp tracker page , I wonder if Mr Data could reveal whether there has been a year when the 4 months of June to September have ever had such a small difference in average daytime temperature? That page has it at 1.36 but the official statistics may be different. What is the 61-90 average range for these months?

    June CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I've got a question that Mr Data may be able to answer...

    Has the 30c barrier been reached yet this year? If not....

    In the records for the UK, what is (and when was) the longest delay between a 20c recording and a 30c recording?

    I have a recollection that this year 20c was reached in early April and it's only just now at the end of June that 30c is possibly going to be reached. Is there any information on this?

    Challenge: Answer that one :p

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tom D

    Would it be possible to explain exactly what the above charts are showing, I gather it is storm potential but how does it work ?????

    The best explanation I can offer is netweather's own...

    You may not be familiar with a couple of the items within the storm forecast, the first one CAPE is a measure of the available energy in the atmosphere for convection (storms and showers), just because this level is high though, it doesn't guarantee that conditions will be right for storms. CAPE is an abbreviation of Convective Available Potential Energy and is measured in joules per kilogram.

    Another term is Lifted Index, this is a measure of the buouyancy in the air. Negative numbers mean the air is buoyant so will rise, positive numbers inicate sinking air. The more buoyant the air is, the better chance there is that the CAPE can be tapped in to.

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stormforecast;sess=

    So on that chart, the reds/yellows/whites show the amount of energy where the numbers (like -11) show the Lifted Index. Pretty much good potential for storms to explode from apparently nothing, rather than so-called 'imports' where storms form over France and move up over the Channel. -11 LI is very good for the UK; you'd rarely see it below -4 usually and most often it's above 0.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tom D

    Loving the Cape/LI charts for early next week.

    This is easily the best Cape/LI chart I've seen in my life. Bloody hell it could be good on Monday and Tuesday...

    I'm going to Leicester next week and it looks like my home county of Hertfordshire might do very well from this. Will be keeping an eye on this over the weekend.

    May CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Seems to be a turning point in the charts as to whether it will be cooler or warmer again come the 18th onwards, the ECM going against the GFS.

    In any case, I think it will take something quite cool to get back down to my prediction of 11.5c by the end of the month.

    April CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looks like this will most likely end up as another exceptionally warm April- to go with 2007 and to a lesser extent, 2009. We really have had an amazing run of Aprils if you also include the warm Aprils of 2003 and 2004. We have also had several notable early warm spells in these months when you think back to 2003 and 2007 and now 2011 which was more notable for how early it was than the very high temperatures. The consistent sunshine and warmth of this upcoming week seems very reminiscent of 2007. The question is will the record go? It's certainly a possibility now.

    Let us not forget April 2008, when we had snowfall here early in the month.

    https://picasaweb.google.com/dupplawt/Snow6thApril2008?authkey=Gv1sRgCOSlh9DlnqyzGw#

    Annual Cet - 2010

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tom D

    Try Excel - worked for me. You'll need to select 'all files' to see the file when you browse to open it though. Follow the import instructions and it should appear in a table.

    Many thanks! That data is really interesting, will definitely spend some time analysing that.

    While looking briefly at the data, it made me wonder why the Met Office use a 30-year average (or 40?) to compare the CET to? Why not use a much larger time period given the availability of data back to 1659?

    Maybe I'm mistaken, but don't they use the most recent period to decide if a month is above/below average?

    EDIT: Just been playing around and created this graph which upon inital analysis is quite interesting. It appears that some months can be trending cooler while others trending warmer, as well as trending differently to the year as a whole.

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