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Everything posted by Spah1
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MO update There is a small chance of a weather system approaching the northwest over the weekend, which could bring significant amounts of snow on meeting the cold air. However, this is still very uncertain and it is best to stay up to date with the latest forecast. I've got to get 10 likes for this !!!
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GFS showing rain on the front of the band for Tuesday. Maybe showers behind it that would more likely be snow.
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? That's up a hill in North Wales.
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You think its going to be one of those times it seems to be arriving but just sits there and progress becomes painful until it fizzles out?
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Tuesday doesn't look cold enough for full on snow which is disappointing. Perhaps more knowledgeable poster on her can tell me other wise.
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
216hrs ECM will not end up like that. The full effects from the SSW should be making an imprint on the trop by this stage and you would expect more robust blocking than this FI chart Imho -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve been reading this forum for weeks and looking at charts predicting HLB over Greenland. I’m sure the ec weeklies were predicting that. It’s not what we are seeing. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Do we not need the trough to be a little further West? -
Looks like the front is a bit of a fizzler tomorrow. Might see a bit of Dandruff but my thoughts are with Tuesday. As ever wish I was 300asl. Looking forward to the next 3 weeks however. Should see some snow at some point.
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It’s always those guys.
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And you wonder why I bang on about living in Lancashire West of the M6 as being the worst place in the country for snow. Caveats aside this snow chart for Tuesday shows the potential for most to see a bit of snow. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Last March -
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Really want that high to sit over Greenland and pull in a stonking Northerly. Don’t want a Scandi High and East winds, can’t bear watching everyone getting feet of snow. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks good to me. Sharper trough. Good wedge of heights to disrupt the trough. Azores High not as flat as UKMO -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No it’s not -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another day/2 days later the uppers would be very cold. As explained a million times they don’t need to be -10 in a flow from the East. -
Essex Weather talking bolx
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In the next 2/3 days ECM day 8/9/10 charts are going to reward everyone’s patience. HLB will start appearing and snow chances will increase. I’m looking forward to using Euro 4 if I can still find where it is -
I bet you’re gutted you’re not there.
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
More than most -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Spah1 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
MO now going for 'Some drier, brighter, quieter spells are likely, perhaps with snow showers, especially in the east. During such spells, frost could become widespread and severe' FV3 teasing us with this. Upgrades to continue in the next few days.