[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 johnholmes Hi John I think QTR = Quick Trop Response, in other words the splitting Strat  will work its way down to the Trop quickly  

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 Downburst the Mrs looks after those, I didn’t know what they were until you told me

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 Freeze I am sorry that looks bleak 

 *Stormforce~beka* I think that was funny. One day you will get some snow

[Moans, ramps and banter]

There no reason to moan today when we have that outside the window. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

My ignore list  from the MAD thread is that big now, we could place it in the Atlantic as a blocking high and have three months of winter nirvana Anyway cold does look to return next week so #HappyDays 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

We have just seen the 46, strat and MJO all looking favourable in delivering a cold spell. Whether the UK is encapsulated within that is TBC.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @mulzy well if that happens then it brings the cold air further south. Which brings more people into the game. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

How do I block on here? I’m trying now

https://community.netweather.tv/ignore/

 

its a vital tool 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

4 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Dreadful extended GFS this morning with an extensive Greenland High and a long lasting Northerly.

If only you would post something like this between December and February.

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Wow people really do moan in here. I was gonna moan the day before yesterday, because of all of the southern corrections Then today my area goes into the Amber warning so every cloud 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

32 minutes ago, Kieran1960 said:

If your up north on a hill potentially, but it does look a lot milder in the south from the weekend, also daytime temps even next week are not the best for any snow to hang around away from higher ground in the south! I’m just being realistic btw 

-8 850s are not mild that is being realistic. Your style of posting could be interpreted as trolling and you could find many members confining you to their ignore lists. Just saying !!!

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

13 hours ago, RJBingham said:

Getting real now. sleet forecast for Monday 

The way I do it is find the ignore user page, keep that open separate in your browser. When you read one of the trolls posts just quickly navigate to your open page type in your new member to ignore. Hey presto their pixels will never bother your eyes again. Unless you see them quoted in another post

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

17 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Wow. Never blocked so many people in 1 day !

Get used to it. I lost the plot last night and to my shame I rose to the bait. My post was removed (correctly by the mods) just ignore the click baiters. Let them post in their own echo chamber. 
 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

2 hours ago, Jacob Gamer said:

Can you send me the link to this update please?

 

2 hours ago, offerman said:

Yes, can you send the link to that please. 

Weather and climate change

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office weather forecasts for the UK. World leading weather services for the public.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Is it ec46 night tonight? That may bring some direction

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

6 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Does anything ever get any nearer than day 10?   

Yes the UKMO has -10 clipping the SE in 4 days. Doesn’t affect me coz I live pop north, but some people often win the cold jackpots in the NH be happy for them.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Another UK high = another yawn fest 

Another post highlighting a UK high = Yawn fest  
Seriously though it’s at day six. Before trop response from SSW according to the knowledgeable on this thread. 
I personally see low heights transferring under the high from the draining of the PV from the west to the east then back west under the high.  Hope that makes sense?

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

A lack lustre ECM D10 with a benign easterly, maybe chilly but far from wintry at this stage. In danger of sinking SE leaving the UK in SSE or eventiually SSW flow.

I think you are in danger of gaining a reputation of being negative. To me the chart looks like it will join with the heights to the west and go on a jolly to Greenland. See isn’t it nice to write an optimistic post. You should try it

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, Stuie said:

Never knew there was that function, thanks for pointing out.

It’s been brilliant this season I have saved myself a lot of unnecessary reactions to posts that are deliberately created to wind up and troll the thread. You will soon see who are the ones to read. Don’t get me wrong 90% of the posters in here are absolutely tip top and I have been reading and following lots of them for nearly two decades. Definitely the best weather forum on the internet IMO

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, Nick2373 said:

Current 06z output continues to show a higher above trend in terms of temp's as Mushymanrob points out above, so as it stands mild with winds from the South West region until month end.

Indeed. It has been well sign posted that the SSW starts in the next couple of days, as you and Mushy have stated the SPV is strong at the moment and ain’t moving for the next ten days. All we can do is sit back and wait and see. The SSW will change things in the Trop. I am certain of that. Somewhere will get the cold and snow. I reckon 12z charts this time next week will start to show more amplification plus northern blocking. Hopefully we will be on the cold side.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, Ruzzi said:

Sorry quickly off topic, but any chance we can add a "disagree" reaction for posts. 

That way the posts designed to evoke responses or be controversial will prevent less clogging responses (me included), and we can simply hit the disagree reaction and continue? 

What a fabulous idea. It would then show that the majority of people want to read interesting balanced factual posts.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

32 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Further proof that an SSW does not guarantee us cold weather!!

Rubbish really, limpet high pressure all the run through, limpet lobe of PV over Canada, both need to change but don’t show any sign of doing!!

Further proof ? Two things about that chart it will be cold and secondly it shows heights to the north of the uk 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

16 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Just a quickie any chance the possibility / myth of the earths core stopping  and mag pole shift will have any effect on the weather and models ? Any thoughts ? 

Please move mods if you think it is justified

If the earths core stops, then we won’t be worrying about snow in our back gardens. As we will all be the bigger fish that are frying under intense radiation from the sun. Because the magnetic poles will have ceased

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

37 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Probably ties into the MJO lag. No expert into that though so sorry if it's wrong explanation.

 

Also an SSW later this month - no thanks - I want a nice warm spring.  

As for a mild spring “no thanks”Let’s hope the MJO lag and potential SSW delivers a freezing cold spring and early summer coolness. Can’t beat a white Easter with a big Cadbury Easter egg yum. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

SM would, he made his reputation here by ramping up snow chances (what most want in Winter) more than accuracy.

To be fair to SM he is a cold supporter, but he explained his thinking of why a cold spell could happen. He also explained when they imploded. For me he and many other posters that come in here and show how a cold spell can develop is the true skill. Even I who is pretty much unskilled in chart reading could say most of the uk weather comes from the mild west.