[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Meanwhile in an ironic twist the 6 z GFS output is being discussed in the moaning thread

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Too show the backtrack. To be fair he looks to have been in the right ignoring it unfortunately.

Wouldn't it be prudent to wait until this time next week to carry out the post Morton ? Who knows if today's 12z ukmo will verify over its 144 output from this morning it's quite annoying to read model back slapping before any verification has taken place!

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Do we take it from your post that you are ruling out the UKMO output from 12z and 00z as you only quote GFS stats.Up North the story is different to your broad sweeping statement.

Of course he is putting up an assemble from the urban heat island of London helps his windup/trolling cause no end for balance Shetland looks differentAnd West Yorkshire Also it's great that I now know how to post charts with my iphone #happydays

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Messed up the links maybe redo later

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Ah - but that's because 'ice' warning is always used as an umbrella / generic one when the type of solid PPN might vary. It'll only be specified in singular fashion as snow, hail, freezing rain, etc etc in the text when conditions afford high forecasting certainty of such an outcome (and in doing so, also meeting the warning criteria laid-out in the PWS warning matrix).

Fair enough I'll try and explain all of that to the wife. Because she has just given me a rollicking for reading this thread every night and not telling her that a localised blizzard was gonna hit West Yorkshire during rush hour. Lol

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

The met office and bbc forecast wintry showers, which is what these are? rain, hail, sleet and snow with gusty westerly winds..met office were spot on.

Well maybe I've spent all of my time in here and forgot to check the met lol. But I have checked since the event and nothing except an ice warning.. It was a heavy thunder shower blizzard conditions. From the mild mild west

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

You know all of this talk about a bit of rain down South for Sunday we have taken our eyes off of the ball for what's happened today in the last hour, between this thread and the met office I feel let down, not a single warning about the blizzard I have just had to battle through to get home.. I can also confirm to shedhead that they weren't "wet snow flakes" as he alluded to earlier. Maybe Frosty can confirm if Wakefield experienced anything like we just received in Huddersfield ? Wrt whatever the models shows next week if it's westerly bring it on because if this is the mild Atlantic it ain't that mild

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

I think that had it been not for the expected strengthening of the Jet flow next week giving extra oomph to the Atlantic push from the weekend the path to cold would have been very much easier given the synoptics to the NE.

Hi Martin don't you feel though that whatever models show they always seem to be over egged be it the jet stream forecast or a high to the east or a low to the west. In my ten years watching this forum I have seen 1050 highs and 950 lows modelled, but when it comes to the day the highs are about 1030 and lows at about 990 ish. We only get to see the GFS jet stream forecast and I believe that is fraught with the same model bias as it's H 500s that Steve Murr refers to often. I think this weekend is tough one to call. From what I have read tonight the Met are going for an Atlantic victory in thus occasion but I remember last March and if we can keep even a small wedge of heights to our north east it May deliver snowfall and if it's anything like last spring, well that was the mist epic snowfall in my memory ( even better than December 2010

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Steve - if the JMA is correct why do the metoffice not buy it? I'm all for optimism but to say the professionals are wrong is a step too far IMO

Hi Tim With all due respect and I promise I don't want to offend you. But what is the point of looking at models and reading this fine thread if people keep on defaulting back to Met office further outlooks they do get it wrong.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

From joe b on twitter

@BigJoeBastardi: Worst GFS ensemble run ever 10 days ago on right for Jan 25, vs latest. #epicfail of US model http://t.co/ooKlm1N4b4

I thought I would throw this in to help people that believe the GFS is the worlds best globel model.

Tonight's debate in here is astonishing. Writing off winter half way through is crazy toys out of prams and dummies being spat out allover the place. A tiny bit of me hopes that this winter is over and the people that say they are giving up leave the thread until next winter. I'm just a tad fed up of reading depressing posts its tediousness and annoying.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Interesting chart not sure about its accuracy courtesy of joe b on twitter

[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

Winter is coming..nuff said

The words of winterfell

[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

This is a plea to Paul or whoever is able to alter the thread page. Could you please place a block button next to the quote or somewhere within a post from members. A nice big red block user button would be most welcome thanks

[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

Far better ukmo than this morningShowing the low digging south eastWhat the 12z was hinting yesterdayUndercut anyone ?Hoping the ECM will back this up later early in the run

Oh it got removed before I edited it with something actually on topic.Never mind, the gist was both UKMO and GFS are poor with the jet riding over the block by the mid term.

2 posts within 4 mins with massively differing views. Oh the frustration of this thread.

[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

Some of the Pro's don't think much af the battleground snow possibility. This is from Liam Dutton"@liamdutton: Whilst it'll be chilly at times during next 7 days, there's no sign of any notable cold or snow. Mild & wet the theme so far this winter.

Well my glass is half full and he does say "notable" which implies they may be some about and looking at the model output I don't think anyone would dismiss the chance of a cold and snow outbreak in the next ten days.

[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

Evening all just departing for leeds so will be able to do a detailed post on the wayVery nice 144 ECM look at norway close and you will see the shortwave lifting out to the northThat 1 single thing will support the westerly progression of the high much better now as it doesnt look like a beat up coke canI would say as it stands tonight we are at where we were 3 days ago again with the models with a scandi high threatening from the eastThis time there will be no scandi shortwave ...S

Hi Steve I also like the ECM 168 chart it looks to me like quite a lot of energy drops well south of the UK.

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

 

Well after yet another trip up the garden path from the Easterly-Con-Merchant is this a victory for the GFS as it never really entertained the idea?

No because the charts have not verified yet. If I remember in ten days time I will try to answer that question. Hope that helps.

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Colder rain..

Sorry bud but if that chart verified has shown it would be heavy wintertime showers and periods of snow and further north the more chance

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

Reading between the lines I would think we will see half way house between ukmo and gfs model. I have no confidence in the ECM model think it's going to fail again in my opinion

Hi terrier I don't want to get into a huge argument with you especially as you have the name of my fave football club. But I do find it surreal that you have more confidence in the GFS than the ECM. Two things I would like to point out the GFS is lower than the ECM in verification stats. And secondly the run to run consistency from the GFS recently has looked poor in my eyes it has looked as though every run has produced a different outcome. I don't know if you are basing your lack of confidence on two failed ECM runs in the last 15 months if that's the case there will be many many more GFS failures. All I can say is I like it when a model latches into a signal and runs with with it until resolvedPaul

[Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->]

Hi everyone does anyone know where I can find a chart viewer like gfs or ECM for Mexico riviera Maya region I'm going on honeymoon on October 19th a little way off but I want to be prepared thanks in advance for any help

Paul

[Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter]

I am sorry just a quick question to Jh why can't we read the thoughts of GP on here what has happened to him? Thanks Paul.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

Well if the ECM proves to be wrong, it wouldn't be the first....or second..or even third time this Winter that ; as a model it will have egg on it's face.

The ECM and GFS have been at loggerheads with each other post 144 since the beginning of the year and for that time frame at least, I think the GFS has performed much better than the ECM has.

if by this time next week, we are not under the influence of colder air from the East, or ESE, then I think it would be fair to say that the ECM had got it completely wrong, yet again.

this the ECM chart for + 144 (which should be the very end of the ''reliable'' time frame)

After all we're not looking at charts at +240 here, so for me, this is a big test for the ECM V's the GFS, I suspect as has been mentioned by others, a half way house will ensue, with the cold air ending up just out of reach...echoes of Last Feb !!

I suspect that you have made this post for a reaction? Well here it is the GFS has been woeful this winter and it not just the GFS v ECM it's also against the UKMO and NOGAPS and CFS etc. The GFS is like a toddler following its Mum around a supermarket. You said the ECM has got it's modelling wrong 3/4 times this winter I bet it would take you the rest of the week to post all if the GFS wrong modelling. The GFS is good to T48 beyond that its woefull IMHO

Paul

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.]

Yes, the track of that sliding low is all important at the weekend. Like yourself, I am still nailing my colours to the ECM mast, but it's all a bit too close for comfort really.

What I am a little disappointed about this winter is the lack of a good convective Easterly, the type that drives the showers right across the country. It seems that cols and gentle flows are the order of the day, with a few marginal frontal events.

You are right that there has been a lack of convective eastery modelled but if you was to look out of your window now you

May see a tremendousl convective westerly

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.]

ECM ensembles very reflective of the OP which is a surprise given the shaky foundations of the evolution. As Nick S says though, if the ECM is handling the system over the US wrongly it very likely tilts matters the wrong way for the UK, given that we have no margin for error anyway based on tonights output.

Hi Ian

Just wondered because I saw a post from sm on the other thread and I am sure he said that with the ECM there is room for some eastward correction but I notice you and nick reckon its more high risk

Paul

[Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts]

I was talking about next week, not towards mid month, nothing wintry next week according to the experts.

Fair enough. I just wanted to lift the thread with somthing positive. I am sorry for Mis reading your post.

Paul