[Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward]

You know I am just watching the sat animation and the storm does seem a little further north. Have a look http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html and as for the rainfall that looks further north also http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ What do people think? I know that posters have mentioned that the models have been woeful , but they did pick the storm out a week ago I know its 600 miles out for us but that's round about 1% of the Earth's circumference so the margin for error imo is pretty outstanding

Regards Paul

[Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward]

Well Sunday looks quite a cold day minus 5s to 10s on the 850s

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111213/06/144/h850t850eu.png

[Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward]

It really is a dumbass term "hairdryer" to describe it. Ask any place that suffers orthographic rainfall in this set-up from it.

ECM 12z has the Thursday night low across southern parts again

I agree but the phrase that really bakes my noodle is "Blowtorth SWs" As for tonight's models nothing set yet, it's North its South (Fridays Storm) Maybe we should a all play a game a bit like spot the ball but this one we pin the low's centre and we can lobby Net Weather to provide 6 months worth of Extra

[Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December]

06Z shows snow for central England for sunday evening, no way will that come off

I would have thought the jet moving south would be bad news for the south? more rain rather than dry

Hi could you explain please why you don't think it will come off. It does seem to me that as the jet is slipping further south more and more pm air is being circulated through the uk to bring snow to many areas. That's my take anyway

Paul

[Yorkshire, Lincs And The Pennines - Cold Spell Discussion 13]

Looks like west and south yorkshire have been in prime position for conducive low level snow in the past few hours. Key reason being the intensity of the precipitation, lighter stuff would not have brought any snow cover to low levels just sleety very wet snow stuggling to settle, but because it has been fairly heavy, this has allowed evaporative cooling to really take hold and meant dewpoints have been very favorable for low level snow down to about 100m and in some spots at lower levels than this. The stalling front has also helped as it has enabled the cold to hold on at the surface for longer.

The BBC last night called this event very well indeed. My ears did prick up when they were suggesting even parts of Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire could see some snow, confirming they were expecting some preety heavy stuff quite far south as opposed to further north over the north pennines and into scotland. Indeed the precipitation has been next to nothing over the far north of england and scotland, all the heavy stuff has fallen south over the central and south pennines and southern parts of the lake district - here included.

You people in places like Bradford, Leeds and Barnsley have been very lucky indeed, especially as the snow arrived in daylight hours so you could enjoy seeing the snow falling from the skies - I bet it has felt like a proper winters day so far. Here although we have the snowcover it all fall well before most of us woke up, and by 8am it was raining rather than snowing - there is nothing better than seeing those first snowflakes and then watching them get bigger and multiplying and then watching them slowly cover the ground with temps dropping down to freezing.

I think those members in the Leeds area will be slightly amending there summaries so far this month..

It has, its been a wonderful surprise for us in Huddersfield, Reading the model thread yesterday with all of the doom and gloom people saying things like wet snow no settling etc. They were wrong and the beeb were spot on. I was reading things like the oc istherm was against the snow but it just shows a little bit of magic and believe and the snow will come lol.

[Model Output Discussion]

Reliable time frame to me is upto T72 sometimes i'll go to 96.

You get tired of hearing it do you? what about us members that have a bit of common sense not to look past certain timeframes, i mean come on? an easterly deep in FI, and the full thread goes into ramp mode.

This is the Model output discussion.

Also Ribster, where do you suggest i go to discuss the "reliable time frame models" this is the model thread is it not? loose the smart ass tone aswell. Netweather is getting trashed. I opted for a seperate model thread a few weeks ago and the request was turned down... Instead we have to put up with "Its a downgrade at 290 hours, oh it's a huge easterly, but it's going to be dry"!!! It's not a dicussion in FI, it's a guessing game!

Simples

I am sorry but you are wrong the definition of this thread is Model Output Discussion and as pedandtic as it is the GFS goes out to 384hrs every run all of this FI has been added to the internet forums. But the fact remains that whilst any model went out to timbucktoo hrs it would be allowed to be discussed within this room.I personally like to look at at the end of a model run to A see if a trend is there B see how close to the mark the model run is 15 days later. So SM TEITS TAMARA GP KOLD HAPPY and you Lewis please keep up the good work with your inputs I really apreiciate it. But please dont all get hangups etc its only the weather. I think tonights 18z is magnificant with huge potential towards the end.

[Model Output Discussion]

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100128/18/252/h500slp.png

Good God best get the huskeys

[Model Output Discussion]

NOAA discussions this evening throw a potential "curve ball" into the UK's medium term synoptic pattern. HP too near to the Uk could scupper the potential for an Easterly. This should serve to temper anticipation for the forthcoming freeze.

THE

DISPLACEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FARTHER EAST IS FORECAST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT

PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ENTER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED

NEAR THE UNITE KINGDOM REGION, A PATTERN THAT IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVE NAO (WHERE THE RIDGE WOULD BE FARTHER WEST). [/color]THIS REDUCES THE ODDS FOR INTENSE

COLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IN THE MEAN.

I might be missreading that but forgive me, in other words it does not fit the NAO for the ridge to be too far east. Does that make sense? Not sure if that reads right :lol:

[Model Output Discussion]

I think so Karyo, plenty of forcing should eventually see a Euro High in place, probably by the end of this month and that will be a hard to shift pattern.

Even with a negative NAO + AO and a possible strat warming? With these factors in play I would punt for a average feb maybe slightly cooler than 30 year CET

[Model Output Discussion]

I guess that post is the thoughts of Joe B, it could be interesting if it was in a form that made it easier to read.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp

Try the link to the site that might be a little better.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp

I am sorry my links are broke and I cant fix them but if people want to read Joe laminate floori blog type that in to your fave search engine I like google lol but other search engines are available

Edit Omg this forum engine believes that Joe Bs sir name is swearing that is the problem of posting his euro blog

[Model Output Discussion]

Despite a sudden shift in the 12Z im still going to be cautious as we may find the model output varies between what was shown on the 06Z and 12Z. Whatever the outcome its makes fasinating viewing.

Time for me to reveal my secret forecasting tool. However let me explain something first.

My obsession with E,lys started during the winter of 78/79 as the blizzards left a lasting impression as I was only 8yrs old. During my childhood days my Grandad would often tell me stories about 1947 and how the Siberian winds always brings heavy snow to this part of the world. Now my Grandparents used to say to me that during the winter if you see a mass of Seagulls this is a sign of the weather coming from Siberia. Apparently this is a well known saying in E Anglia.

Recently my mother informed me of a huge number of Seagulls in this area which I have also witnessed first hand. Now the combination of the model output showing a battle and the Seagulls is what makes me believe the E,ly is on its way. This has proved very accurate in the past especially prior to 1987 & 1991. However this time I have never seen so many in Peterborough!

What a chart this is!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

That is brilliant EITS. But for gawds sake dont mention larks and whatever you do dont bring the winter cut off date outof the wood work alas D Allan on snow watch. OOh remember them dark days of model watching lol. Todays 12z in my eyes is defo a step in the right direction if your blend of Tea is of the cold type.

[Model Output Discussion]

To follow from FI GFS 18Z 324h, just look at this breath-taking GFS 18Z 384h 500hpa & 850hpa. If this materialises, I wonder if the High to the North of the UK will help the low to the SW under cut further South? If so, the East has an amazing cold feed ready to approach the UK

I think we need to be carefull though about posting charts that far out 300 hrs + I have been lurking here for the last 6 years and my Mrs thinks that I am a saddo geek for the weather but after all it is the model output thread and I suppose the charts that we have just posted are relivent to the thread and could occur. I wonder if the GFS has picked up northern blocking signal for the end of Jan into feb maybe to program knows that blocking normally occurs within Feb.

[Model Output Discussion]

FI I know but surly the eye candy chart of the day. 324hrs gfs 18z.

[Model Output Discussion]

The '1045' to the East is really forming well. I noticed Roger J and TEITS have commented on this. GFS 18Z 72h is very similar to ECM 12Z 72h

upto 140hrs on the gfs 18z and the waa is very evident over towards iceland heights buiding well to the north east in my ltd view should help to pull the easterly close to the east coast and beyond.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

Or brilliant depending on your perspective ! And yes, got out of the village OK this morning, but once I got down into Huddersfield it was the most extreme driving conditions I've ever experienced in an urban area, cars sliding slowly and elegantly into each other like some kind of slow-motion bumper cars, and then the drivers falling over as soon as they got out. Almost comical if it hadn't been so unpleasant for those involved. Luckily I managed, more by luck than judgement, to avoid bumping into anyone else, although the sensation of slowly loosing grip going up a hill, then starting to slide back down, was rather unpleasant, and just goes to prove that even in a 4WD you're not immune to tricky conditions. I was only saved because I managed to drift into the curb where there were no parked cars, then very gingerly reverse against the curb until I got back to a more level piece of road, at which point I was able to turn on a snow-covered driveway and then very very slowly inch back the way I'd come. Not nice.

Dont get me wrong the weather over the last month has what we have all been wanting (almost the holy grail lol) and I am eagerly awaiting the progged easterly for next week. But i could not agree any more about the conditions that you have described above. I drive a transit pickup van rear wheel drive and believe me trying to get up hills this morning was somthing that i would not want attempt again in a hurry i had to park up wait for daylight, but luckly I had some salt on the back of my van so i took it upon my self to salt the road just so I could get goin. Made my way to work in the end but was very difficult to get things done.

[Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion]

now stopped - next issue - FOG

Slushy roads and now fog starting to come down

Will be dodgy travelling in the morning

If its anything like this morning then OMG in huddersfield the black ice was totally unbelievable. I love the snow but black ice forget it

Just got in from walking the dog, everywhere has a new layer of 2-3 cms. Village is completely quiet, no cars moving, no-one around, just a deep hush. What really strikes you as you walk around now is the sheer volume of snow, piled up at the roadsides, thick blanket on every garden, collected on every surface, every bush and every tree branch, and a veritable small army of snowmen of varying sizes ! I have tried to capture it on camera but to be honest it just doesn't convey the extent, on the one hand quite amazing, but on the other bl**dy inconvenient !!!

I am just down the road from you on Gledholt near near Green head park I must say i bet its been quite dodgy up scape over the last month

[General Model Output Discussion]

I have just looked at the GFS Max temp charts and I had to wait until it got to 192hrs for it to show the temps here in Huddersfield to get above freezing.

Paul

[General Model Output Discussion]

Cold spell is OVER!!!

snow this week is over exaggerated and limited to a small amount on the highest hills early in week

By next weekend we will be looking forward to wearing our normal winter gear - t-shirts and raincoats!!

GFS has nailed this cold spell, the biggest downgrade in the past 4 weeks - and only at 3 days... don't be telling me 3 days is fantasy land, these charts have been hinting at this for 4 days now

The question is - when will the chaps on the tv actual say - milder weather on the way!!

bit of an anticlimax really, especially all the forecasted snow this week,... out with a wimper

Hi is this post from your own point of view? for your area perhaps. I have just looked at the GFS 18z and it shows me cold temps at the surface for the next 5 days, with a slight warm up towards next weekend but only returning to average january temps. This has been a remarkable spell of cold weather and I can see us all in the future winters posting charts in deepest parts of FI with slogans like "Jan 2010 anyone" But anyhow the models are showing for where I live in the Huddersfield area that headlines of (Cold spell is OVER!!!) are in fact unfounded at the moment and they show that we have more snow forcast for the next 2 days or so. less we forget its been a cracking winter thus far

Paul

[General Model Output Discussion]

I can't see why everyone is getting excited to be honest. There is no point having a cold mainly dry 2 weeks.

It would be such a waste to have such an unusual cold spell to end up with no snow.

No snow = Rubbish winter

This is not a model output post. Model mood thread would be better. The 12z GFS looks very good for some sustained and prolonged cold plenty of convenction opportunities.