[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

4 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Can we just ban the Polar Vortex? Both in real terms and the word itself from this thread? It’s the bane of this Model thread! 

The phrase’s I can’t stand are “Euro heights are a winter killer” but the one that slaughters my goat more than anything is “TickTock” please do not use that phrase. Repeated use inevitably leads to the poster visiting the ignore list.

Now back to the thread. Next week some models are showing a W/NW flow which should bring some winter hazards to some. I know it’s not Narnia that many crave, but still!

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

So here we are mid Jan and looking for a cold spell in last week of feb or March

But we are in a cold spell. I bet loads of people in this forum have written posts about the next cold spell, whilst a blizzard is blowing outside of their windows 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

16 minutes ago, IanT said:

“PM shots”…? Seems to be the phrase du jour, although a new one for me.

Mentioned three times in the last page or so. What is a “PM shot” please?

PM = Polar Maritime. However in this thread lately it could mean persistent moaning.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

1 hour ago, cold snap said:

Models are westerly now and as far as the eye can see.

If this pains you watch the Met office 10 day trend it's even more uglier than what I've posted. It's the most ugliest 10 day trend I've seen.

There are no  uncertain models for the next 3 plus weeks . Mild mild mild 

Time to think of Feb and the ticking clock I'm afraid .

CS

I am  sorry I might be misunderstanding your post. Are you saying the models are certain for the next three weeks for mild?

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

10 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

There is potential every year, nothing makes this new year any special. It's like groundhog year on these forums sometimes.

And while on the subject, people need to stop comparing past weather events to what they are seeing because it looks vaguely similar by 10%. The last cold spell, there was people shouting 2010 all over. In 2010, I had a foot of snow and snow lying on the ground for nearly a month. Last cold spell, I seen about 50 flakes of snow in total. People need to stop being over dramatic, it's not good for anyone.

You seem to be telling people what to do. Let me return the favour, put this kind of post in the moaning thread

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

If anyone gets frustrated with some of opinions in these threads, just remember that there is an ignore user function. You could message the mods for the link. It’s a wonderful tool to filter out your own preferences of the kind of posts that you want to read, be them mild or cold biased. I love it. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

4 minutes ago, okidoke said:

so the hunt goes on! and thats what its going to be a hunt .. nothing is likely to come to anything I think we may get a few cold snaps end of jan and feb but will be mostly mild!

I think the best chance to get some snow will be late march /early April as is every year .

lets pack up and return Nov 22

Cheerio then! See you in the autumn.  I would like to wish you a lovely spring and summer. Meanwhile most of us will enjoy the rest of winter.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry but i strongly disagree with that!

Someone with little knowledge can post up a "boom" chart (dreadful statement) and says "look at this" - gets 40 "likes" and back slapping, yet a detailed, explained, technical post that doesnt promote cold gets next to nothing.

Thats the problem i have with the "likes" system, and it feeds those on an ego trip. Personally, id bin it.

Hi Mushy thanks you for your response. I think you are missing the point though. Those that make the detailed posts with lots of technical aspects are fine, so long as they are constructed to be posted in the “Hunting For Cold”  thread.  If those posts contain the word mild then they don’t belong in there. Let’s face it some people troll the tread with mild posts. For no other reason than to get a reaction. They also post in there because it is the most popular thread in winter. They don’t like to post in the correct thread because there would be a distinct lack of engagement with that post. I just wish the thread was used correctly Yes I see the irony of my last sentence. But if it was, we could tell fairly instantly if there was a lack of cold by the lack of posts. Just as lots of posts would be indicative of a cold spell showing in the models. The thread with the detailed technical posts are amazing and a great source for people to enhance there knowledge. But this thread should be used for exactly what it says on the tin IMO

kind regards

 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

25 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Whilst not wanting to derail this thread with I told you so posts as they benefit no one I just want to briefly detail where I feel we are at currently with current output.

 I for one  cannot understand the optimistic view of some posters based on current output. Comments like building blocks are firmly in place…it’s baffling to be honest. I think some are trying to inject positivity to lift spirits when the charts look so bleak for Jan cold and snow for most.

We have a strong PV, zero blocking, heights pushing up from the south…it’s grim.

I’ve seen absolutely nothing across the entire NWP suite that offers anything exciting for wintry prospects bar some fleeting showers this week.

We are fast approaching mid winter and here in the SE I’ve barely had a frost, not seen as much as a sleet shower…temps by day have not been close to freezing even once and last week we broke all records for warmth.

Maybe I’m viewing different output at the moment but you can’t spin what isn’t there. Some need an injection of realism sadly. I’m all for wanting cold and snow, I’m all for championing and ramping cold and snowy charts but to be a balanced/sensible poster when the charts are churning out the dross they are right now, call it how it is.

We can all search deep to find one ensemble showing what we want or saying if x, y, z happens we can have a 91 scenario again..the reality is that’s pure hopecasting at its best. Whilst a scenario like that can always happen if you’re offering odds it’s a 100/1 shot like many other weather phenomena.

Apologies to rant here but the overly inaccurate and at times overly positive posts are misleading and it needs to be highlighted for those who are new to the forum and hang off every post when cold and snow is mentioned.

rant over 

All the best 

 

Sorry I disagree with your post. In the title of this thread we see the following words. “The Hunt For Cold”. What we don’t see is the “Hunt for Mild”  most people who visit this thread know that the weather normally travels West to East. Predominately from a mild direction. So forecasting “Mild” pretty much offers zero skill, yet those that do thrive on the likes and back slapping / kudos. Telling the thread in a “I told you so” style that it is going to be mild with smugness, is akin to me predicting it will be dark in 12 hours time. In the “Hunt For Cold” thread most of us enjoy reading the posts that highlight explain and educate us on the route to cold for the UK. By all means somebody should set up a “Hunt For Mild” thread, however I suspect it will be a lonely place, and the posts in there won’t have the desired impact on the emotions of those who are looking for cold. Because nobody will be in there reading that filth until the Spring. HNY.

 

Speaking of predictions I predict this post will disappear within the next hour. 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 hour ago, DCee said:

Respectably I disagree.

Well you can have a different opinion. What you can’t have are different facts. 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Hi everyone quick question, how do you block some posters.  I always thought it was the 3 dots at the side of their name. I’m not trying to be antagonistic, it’s just some posts I would rather not read. I am sure I am not alone in my thinking. Any help would be appreciated thanks and kind regards.

 

Paul

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Indeed PSL . . . and it's always safer when we discuss what the models are actually showing, and not just what we want them to show?

Hi the mean doesn’t really get above zero with a huge scatter almost a 30c temp difference. I think that qualifies as what the model is showing  

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

27 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

GFS has been going back and forth at wether the High wins in the end. 

One day more another day another destiny. 

This never-ending road to Calvary 

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Anything's possible, I guess...? But I do hope that that European cold pool stays well away, as there's nowt much worse, IMO, than cold nothingness, during the run-up to springtime proper.

     

In the meantime, roll on springtime!

We will be having none of that spring/summer nonsense until we have had our winter, thank you very much seriously though March 13 &18 delivered some of the best snowy weather I have ever seen.  

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

Days eight, nine and ten on the ECM show some potential. The northern hemisphere profile show at least five areas of amplified highs punching into the PV with a super high in Canada. Surly this should help to deliver a pattern change? 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

The negative comments in here are  exhausting and wearing my soul away. THIS IS A “Hunt for Cold” thread please please please I plea to you, if you can’t find any cold then don’t post. I can’t be the only one who doesn’t want read about south westerly winds in here or all of the other guff being written All day today it’s felt like I’ve read about flat pancakes and lack of amplified ridges. Surly all of that can go in the other thread. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Blimey forecasting normal  British winter weather in winter. How clever.

You are right I’ve been saying for ages. There is zero skill in forecasting mild weather or SW winds in winter it’s a default  setting.  it’s easy peasy, this is my prediction Sometime in July this summer it will get above 20 degrees somewhere  in the uk. That is a zero skill forecast and I am confident it will verify. If a couple of posters above could just come to the cold hunt thread with some cold hunt posts Well I would be inclined to unblock them and read their posts.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

S O W (save our winter) This is an emergency can any of the big hitters find a way to save the “Hunt for cold thread” is there anything in the MJO or the QbO that can lead us to the BnQ for shovels etc please help we need some cold charts fast 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 hour ago, iceman1991 said:

Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

Okay dokay see you in December kidda. I’ll wait until mid April looking forwards to what the models show next week a bit of cool/cold zonal then after that who knows?

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

I see the Meto are still sticking to there guns. I’ve been hearing for days to expect changes in the long range wording. Ironically now I’ve made this post they will change on the lunch time update

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also steve that precipitation is really gathering pace across wales and become really organised!!seen your video on facebook yesterday and you mentioned some very lucky spots could get up to 10cms max out of this but u did stress thats the maximum!you still think thats whats going to happen?

Hi Shaky 

 

how is do we get that video

cheers

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Steve, no-one mentioned the Metoffice hopecasting.

I was referring to the forum.

So is the forum supposed to shut down then crew ? I’m sure I’ve read somewhere it’s the Hunt for cold. So lets hunt and find those cold charts, get them posted in here so they can be discussed. You know what I hope this thread continues and people keep showing all of us how a cold spell can develop that is the skill. It’s so easy to post in here with the attitude of I told you so. Because the odds are in favour of a return to climatology 

 

regards

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

You know it’s funny I believed that a lot of posters on here were from a glass half full perspective, I’m now wondering if they actually own a glass to fill   it still looks wintry next week on some of the NWP maybe not as extreme. But it will be colder and I imagine snow will be about and if it was still Xmas dare I say it would be described as “seasonal” 

[Model banter returns]

Yeah well I liked the hunt for cold thread. It’s what most weather enthusiasts look for in winter. Now the MOD thread will be taken over by the people with a mild perspective posting charts from 3000 hrs in the future. I only like those charts from that distance if they show cold oh well a lot more reading sorry dodging of those posts for me then.  

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

I found this an interesting read in the hunt for cold 

https://huddsweathermandotcom.wordpress.com/2019/01/05/is-the-cold-coming/