[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

7 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

My hunch is we are going to have a near miss winter with the coldest air continuing to plague Central and Southern Europe, that’s my prediction,,,keep me in mind with my comment.

That sounds like a normal uk winter. Just looking at the ecm 120 you can see the PV almost destroyed hardly any of it left over Greenland,

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

 

And then the 144 came out and went a bit flat 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

42 minutes ago, draztik said:

So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is. 

Maybe you need a less stressful hobby. Because that was a bit of a moan in the wrong thread. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Maybe i need to check my browser. I am pretty sure this is the "Hunt for cold" thread.and not the "I want to air my negative comments about it not snowing in my garden at Christmas thread" 

 

I couldn't find the moaning thread link to copy into this post. That maybe the place foe some members to vent out some frustration.

 

And yes I know "The irony"

 

Seasons greetings to all and may all of your winter wished be fulfilled.

 

 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

-4 for the majority.If we ramp this up any more there will be no toys left to throw by weekend

Hi as a mean that’s pretty good to be fair.

[Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion]

Hope you are right Kentish Snowman, I was just looking at the 18z and our southern friends are becoming quite interested on the runner lows. 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Lol I’ve been reading this thread since 2004 and what I notice from reading the thread and looking at the charts is the amount of  IMBYizm. For all of the new members if most of the weather models are showing the weather coming from the east like they are showing currently it’s hard not to notice the posters from Ireland and the south west and west Pennines dislike it. They dislike it because they know that most easterlies fail to deliver to there back yard. However if the weather is coming from North or North west then those posters become excited, at the same time some south and eastern contingent complain about all of the snow being wasted on the back of sheep on some northern hill. Don’t even get me started on wishbones lol.

I disagree about the topic from a earlier post describing the GFS as a “GOLD standard model” IB had three letters that he used a few years ago to describe  THAT ECM. 

Not one model is gold standard however I expect the outcome to be a close blend of UKM and ECMWF models for the next 7 to 10 days and all of the models are showing a Temperature decrease to fall below average for the foreseeable will that bring snow? Yes where ? No idea but I hope that to keep harmony within the forum snow is spread evenly throughout the UK 

 

Happy new Year 

 

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon All

Ukmo says no to the toppler !

Hi steve. 

Does that mean that the ukmo is saying yes to to a shallow Greenland/iceland high and a north easterly setting in over the uk bringing colder temperatures ?

 

Cheers 

 

Paul

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Rant time! All this talk of spring next week and looking forwards to early spring warmth blah blah blah, well you can all go and balls. nobody is having spring or summer until i have had my mongooseing winter 

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

It's quite funny looking at the yellows and oranges on the above chart how they can paint a picture of mildsville. Yet on closer impection i would love to live in a country that has above average temperatures of -12. Perfect for roasting those horse chestnuts on xmas day 

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I hate the term Euro slug, isn't there a better name for it..like Eurotrash High or Bartlett

Anyway, it's what the models are showing which is the name of the game after all!

 

One of my favourites from a few years ago was the term "displaced bartlett" lol

 

 

[Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards]

Hello everyone I was a little curious about how March 2013 got going so I have just had a read through the MoD thread leading up to that period. 

have a read it's very interesting and quite insightful 

 

paul

[Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016]

53 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm happy ending is day 10 but the evolution starts much sooner, hey at least I'm trying to be positive and offer glimmers of hope for the dwindling number of coldies left on here but I'm obviously flogging a dead horse so I won't bother any more!

Well frosty I for one appreciate your positive posting. Such a relief to the endless moaning posts about mild and  bartlet's keep it up please

[Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards]

Might be a few wintry showers in this chart if it verifies maybe! ECM 216 hrs could be a bit breezy 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

FAX charts at 96hrs and 120hrs tonight will give a big clue how the Met Office see it. They will be within range.

Speaking of FAX charts are they scored in the verification stats? 

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

I saw this earlier and it just shows how hard it been to get a low cet for the uk.

Courtesy bbc news website

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

1 hour ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

So to repeat what I just added over on TWO

bin all the GFS & ECM suites 

go with a total pattern change in the next 12-24 hours to a very cold easterly at 144-168

s
 

It's funny  as I'm reading this post from Steve there is a heavy thunder hail shower outside. Almost as though the weather is empathising that something is literally stirring outside I've seen SM do this before I've seen him nail it and as he admits he has been let down with a short wave problem that sometimes makes his thoughts go the way of the pear.. But I think that is a brilliant post very informative 

 

just hope that he has got this one nailed 

happy new year everyone 

 

paul

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

I wish there was a thread for cold model output discussion. In the MOD thread it drives me insane reading people's posts about mild mild mild. Where is the skill in predicting mild for the uk? In the new cold model output discussion nobody is allowed to use the M word and certainly not the B word just post charts of cold be FI or reliable. And here is the best bit if cold is not on the horizen the thread should be empty, then we don't need to waste time wading through the endless posts about mild.

 

just a thought.

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Since this is now the moaning and ramp thread. And the met office and media thread combined. Can people please stop banging on about what the met office are and ain't buying. This may come as a surprise but I and I'm sure many others come here to read about the model output. With contributions from some fantastic posters. This is not a dig at the met office or their fine posters who post in here.  It's just we know what the MO thinks I have the app and I read about it in the thread that is dedicated for that discussion. Thanks for reading this silly rant 

 

Paul 

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

1 minute ago, cold snap said:

Mr Murr where are you ?

Beast from the east incoming on the ECM ,

Scandinavian high I expect now to verify but any cold activity in these shores still needs some work ,

Ecm shows a possible outcome

 

 

 

He has changed his name to "The Chosen One". 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Wow it is as bad as next door in here. Moaning about the meto not being onboard cold not showing on any charts (what)!!!!!! I just want to say what is the point of people visiting and contributing to this site if they are constantly banging on about the met office being or not being on board. They may as well download the met office app and look at it daily. Oh may I refer people to the ecm op run 12z 168hr chart cold backing west.

 

rant over.

 

merry Christmas 

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

Joe b has been tweeting about the mjo 

 

no idea what that means for us in uk. But sounds interest.

[Model Output Discussion - 1st August 00z---------->]

Hi everyone I'm flying to cancun on Saturday Mexico would anyone have any links to the models for the Caribbean please I'm struggling to find some.

Thanks

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Cautionary note not to take nature of any trough disruption/resultant northerly broad flow and longevity of this, plus timing of subsequent return to flatter zonality, too literally.

Models will inevitably show great divergence in how this is handled, including run-to-run, as is typical in any such scenario. The one we are currently experiencing epitomised the difficulties even to short lead times.

That's a good point. I mean after reding this thread looking st the models for today and keeping my eyes on the met office. I fully expected a slight dusting of snow here in west youkshire. In reality the snow today has been pretty heavy and we have been caught out. Upto six inches of snow has fallen quite widely. And in my opinion the nwp for today certainly didn't look spectacular but it has certainly delivered a decent snow event.. As you can see from my attached files looks marginal Synoptics

Paul

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

It does feel this winter that the models have not quite got the operational models correct from day six onwards. I've seen a few posts this morning showing op's from days 10 to 15 and I think that is fine if people are trying to show the broad scale NH pattern. But for detail IMO it's folly. Personally I'm looking forward to the results of the experiment that Steve m undertook 3 or 4 days ago regarding the 12z's from ECM and GFS. Besides interest for us in the north continues. But we shall see.

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

All aboard for one last hurrah on the ECM easterly it's being very naughty at day nine showing us weather hardened winter fanatics charts like that.