Paul White.
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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Paul White. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The phrase’s I can’t stand are “Euro heights are a winter killer” but the one that slaughters my goat more than anything is “TickTock” please do not use that phrase. Repeated use inevitably leads to the poster visiting the ignore list. Now back to the thread. Next week some models are showing a W/NW flow which should bring some winter hazards to some. I know it’s not Narnia that many crave, but still! -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Paul White. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But we are in a cold spell. I bet loads of people in this forum have written posts about the next cold spell, whilst a blizzard is blowing outside of their windows -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Paul White. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
PM = Polar Maritime. However in this thread lately it could mean persistent moaning. -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
Paul White. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I am sorry I might be misunderstanding your post. Are you saying the models are certain for the next three weeks for mild? -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Paul White. replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You seem to be telling people what to do. Let me return the favour, put this kind of post in the moaning thread -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Paul White. replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If anyone gets frustrated with some of opinions in these threads, just remember that there is an ignore user function. You could message the mods for the link. It’s a wonderful tool to filter out your own preferences of the kind of posts that you want to read, be them mild or cold biased. I love it. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Paul White. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi Mushy thanks you for your response. I think you are missing the point though. Those that make the detailed posts with lots of technical aspects are fine, so long as they are constructed to be posted in the “Hunting For Cold” thread. If those posts contain the word mild then they don’t belong in there. Let’s face it some people troll the tread with mild posts. For no other reason than to get a reaction. They also post in there because it is the most popular thread in winter. They don’t like to post in the correct thread because there would be a distinct lack of engagement with that post. I just wish the thread was used correctly Yes I see the irony of my last sentence. But if it was, we could tell fairly instantly if there was a lack of cold by the lack of posts. Just as lots of posts would be indicative of a cold spell showing in the models. The thread with the detailed technical posts are amazing and a great source for people to enhance there knowledge. But this thread should be used for exactly what it says on the tin IMO kind regards -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Paul White. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sorry I disagree with your post. In the title of this thread we see the following words. “The Hunt For Cold”. What we don’t see is the “Hunt for Mild” most people who visit this thread know that the weather normally travels West to East. Predominately from a mild direction. So forecasting “Mild” pretty much offers zero skill, yet those that do thrive on the likes and back slapping / kudos. Telling the thread in a “I told you so” style that it is going to be mild with smugness, is akin to me predicting it will be dark in 12 hours time. In the “Hunt For Cold” thread most of us enjoy reading the posts that highlight explain and educate us on the route to cold for the UK. By all means somebody should set up a “Hunt For Mild” thread, however I suspect it will be a lonely place, and the posts in there won’t have the desired impact on the emotions of those who are looking for cold. Because nobody will be in there reading that filth until the Spring. HNY. Speaking of predictions I predict this post will disappear within the next hour. -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Paul White. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well you can have a different opinion. What you can’t have are different facts. -
Model output discussion - into the last third of January
Paul White. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi everyone quick question, how do you block some posters. I always thought it was the 3 dots at the side of their name. I’m not trying to be antagonistic, it’s just some posts I would rather not read. I am sure I am not alone in my thinking. Any help would be appreciated thanks and kind regards. Paul -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
Paul White. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This never-ending road to Calvary -
Model output discussion 02/02/20
Paul White. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We will be having none of that spring/summer nonsense until we have had our winter, thank you very much seriously though March 13 &18 delivered some of the best snowy weather I have ever seen. ???????????? -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Paul White. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Days eight, nine and ten on the ECM show some potential. The northern hemisphere profile show at least five areas of amplified highs punching into the PV with a super high in Canada. Surly this should help to deliver a pattern change? -
The negative comments in here are exhausting and wearing my soul away. THIS IS A “Hunt for Cold” thread please please please I plea to you, if you can’t find any cold then don’t post. I can’t be the only one who doesn’t want read about south westerly winds in here or all of the other guff being written All day today it’s felt like I’ve read about flat pancakes and lack of amplified ridges. Surly all of that can go in the other thread.
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You are right I’ve been saying for ages. There is zero skill in forecasting mild weather or SW winds in winter it’s a default setting. it’s easy peasy, this is my prediction Sometime in July this summer it will get above 20 degrees somewhere in the uk. That is a zero skill forecast and I am confident it will verify. If a couple of posters above could just come to the cold hunt thread with some cold hunt posts Well I would be inclined to unblock them and read their posts.
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S O W (save our winter) This is an emergency can any of the big hitters find a way to save the “Hunt for cold thread” is there anything in the MJO or the QbO that can lead us to the BnQ for shovels etc please help we need some cold charts fast
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Okay dokay see you in December kidda. I’ll wait until mid April looking forwards to what the models show next week a bit of cool/cold zonal then after that who knows?
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I see the Meto are still sticking to there guns. I’ve been hearing for days to expect changes in the long range wording. Ironically now I’ve made this post they will change on the lunch time update
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Hi Shaky how is do we get that video cheers
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So is the forum supposed to shut down then crew ? I’m sure I’ve read somewhere it’s the Hunt for cold. So lets hunt and find those cold charts, get them posted in here so they can be discussed. You know what I hope this thread continues and people keep showing all of us how a cold spell can develop that is the skill. It’s so easy to post in here with the attitude of I told you so. Because the odds are in favour of a return to climatology regards
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Paul White. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You know it’s funny I believed that a lot of posters on here were from a glass half full perspective, I’m now wondering if they actually own a glass to fill it still looks wintry next week on some of the NWP maybe not as extreme. But it will be colder and I imagine snow will be about and if it was still Xmas dare I say it would be described as “seasonal” -
Yeah well I liked the hunt for cold thread. It’s what most weather enthusiasts look for in winter. Now the MOD thread will be taken over by the people with a mild perspective posting charts from 3000 hrs in the future. I only like those charts from that distance if they show cold oh well a lot more reading sorry dodging of those posts for me then.
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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Paul White. replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I found this an interesting read in the hunt for cold https://huddsweathermandotcom.wordpress.com/2019/01/05/is-the-cold-coming/