Paul White.

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Feb 2013 to Tuesday 12 Feb 2013: A cold and frosty start for many on Sunday, before quickly turning cloudier with outbreaks of rain spreading across the UK, with perhaps some snow across the higher ground initially. The unsettled conditions are then likely to dominate the UK throughout much of the week with showers or longer spells of rain interspersed by some drier and clearer conditions. The rain is likely to be heaviest and most persistent across the north and west, and will also be accompanied by strong or occasionally gale force winds. Temperatures near normal or mild during the unsettled conditions but perhaps falling just below with a risk of frost during the clearer interludes. Towards the middle of the month, it is likely to remain unsettled, but probably turning colder than of late. Updated: 1148 on Tue 29 Jan 2013 Hi everyone I just wanted to put this up because I read a post earlier that said that the met office had gone for zonal next week. I can't highlight the post because I am on iPhone, but if I could draw people's attention to the beginning of the update they do mention snow over northern hills and at the end it mentions probably getting colder than if late. So my interpretation would be that they are are going for a blocked outlook. Paul

With respect I have to disagree wrt how the last cold spell did not deliver. It did deliver the small wedge of high pressure over scandi brought in some nice cold uppers diagonally from Wales south west to north east Scotland here in West Yorkshire combined snowfall over the two week period gave us 14 inches of snow. If you watched the news you may have seen people having to stay in there cars over night on the M6 and M62 because over a foot of snow fell in three hours last Friday.. The models for late in the period do look as though they have the potential to deliver something close to what we have just had. I have to add this and I hope my post does not get removed because it needs to be said. Reading this thread over the last couple if months feels like its not a cold spell unless the south if south east gets the cold. Please remember people that there are millions of people living north of Watford. We count as well. Best regards Paul

Post like this are annoying to say the least. The cold spell was/still is tremendousl for here is West Yorkshire. More snow was delivered here last Monday than 2010 it's gonna be an 11 day cold spell with snow falling on 5 of them days. People say a weak scandi ridge is rubbish but from imby pov it was superb. I hope members do get the Greenland high u would like everyone to get sine snow best regards Paul

Just a little bit of despondency in here anyone would think its 1988 outside (the year of the B**tlett) I think NS has the Tshirt. Honest if people expect falling snow within every town and city for half the month. Not only do I think they are deluded I actually think that they need to move out of the uk. In fact it might be best to leave the planet. Pluto on the outer edges of the solar system may satisfi people's expectations.. Last nights easterly delivered big time still is in the north east. So yes from an imby perspective I can't complain about this winter it really has had it all from record breaking rainfall to epic five hour blizzards. As for tonight's main models they show a mild zonal outlook at 140 to 240 hrs. But how many 240 hrs charts have come to fruition this winter? Even 144hrs charts are a struggle. Paul

Probably I notice that if a GL block is not showing then the people in the west or Ireland moan claim downgrade. Just like if a scandi high is not shown the same can be said for people in the east. You should all move to West Yorkshire we seem to do well out of both situations. í ½í¸œ

Ian if you have called this right then I will total respect for you. You have been brave in sticking with your resolve it what looks like a wall of different evidence. The UkMO ECM bbc GP sm and countless other models. Calling for cold IMO with only the gfs to back you up its very brave. Good luck !

Wow that gfs 12z run was completely different to yesterday. How can you have confidence in its output? Previous to today's 00z output it had 4 in a. row showing GL blocks and now 3 in a row showing GL low heights for next week. Before anyone says the gfs leads the way and ECM will have to fall in line I say "fiddle sticks " I think what happens is the gfs runs 4 times a day and goes out further than the other models. Which gives it a chance of finding somthing in FI what I am trying to say is if the ECM follows the gfs then we will be under a GLH next week but if the ECM follows today's output from the gfs then none of the models are to be trusted post d6-7 talk about model uncertainty. Paul

I have to say their does seem to be a fair bit of nonsense posts this evening. The gfs has NOT shown any inter run agreement now between 96 and 240 for ages. But and alluding to JHs post above matching 12 with 12s and 6 with 6s etc there is an improvement on today's gfs 12z compared to yesterday's operational gfs 12z.. Now I know some of you will say "surly it's better to have a run with up to date info" and to some extent I would agree, but each run does start with different data sets. Each time. Starting with new up to date data. So for example today's gfs would of started with its own unique data but with 24hrs worth of extra info to improve the forecast. I hope that this post is not seen as teaching grannies to suck eggs Paul Ps I B I am sorry my post earlier was a little hostile and I respect your view and thanks for the clarification.

And conversely we see the ECM with inter run consistency showing a Greenland block 2 in a row. Ian if it was the other way around and we had the gfs showing showing the GL block and the ECM showing more of an Atlantic influence I bet your post would have been almost similar (swapping gfs for ECM ) to fit in with your winter theory at least that's how it looks IMHO. For me and someone posted earlier why wouldn't we trust the worlds best model at varifiyingl from d5 onwards. If the ECM had similar Synoptics to gfs at d6 onwards then I would be inclined to think its a none starter but its not and therefore from a cold perspective we certainly have more hope to colder conditions than what was shown a week ago. Paul

Steve m if you are on Vodafone you can tether your mobile to your laptop using your mobile data. As for the NWP tonight they look like they are trending towards a colder outlook for late next week. Paul

What do you mean about move on from this pattern. It's not like we have a choice and control what the NWP produce. If that was the case then I would put a scandi Greenland block in place for the next three months Paul

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121214/12/180/npsh500.png I hope that that the chart above does not come to fruition I aint the best at chart reading but I imagine if that chart on gfs 12z 180 hrs happens it could be a while before it gets to a colder output. On the upside it is FI and it does seem that the forcasted Strat warming MAY be causing a few issues with the NWP models lets hope! Paul

Hi I 99% sure that an undercut is an area of low pressure moving east underneath a block of high pressure moving west. This would result in easterly winds remember wind direction around a high pressure is clockwise and anticlockwise around the low pressure I hope his helps nd if I am wrong I will be put right by one of the brilliant members in here. Paul

I don't quite understand what you are saying and I have read other posts like this one. You seem to be saying hats off to gfs because it picked up the northly and it'd now picked up a watered down version bearing in mind none of the forecasted Synoptics have have actually happened as yet. Surly best to wait until after the events have taken place and then credit models and posters with back slaps later Paul

Well done Ed and NetWeather that was very informative and not too technical for my slow brain. Paul

I really do think that a line needs to be drawn under this GFS V ECM debate. This thread was brought down yesterday due to what appears to be a very emotive subject. surly now best to wait for the forecast period to lapse, and then we look at the verification stats before proclaiming that certain models have the period nailed. Regards Paul

This is a fantastic post clearly shows that the pattern has improved and shifted it all West and more of the Uk in the cold. of course it may nor verify but it does show at the very least that the ecm is showing run to run consistency. Four runs in a row I think that is outstanding.

All I know is that the GFS or ECM is going to have to climb down (on local detail) But reading this thread for the last hour you would think that Members have staked there reputations on the outcome. (Who cares) Anyway on the ECm run there is hardly any detail change from its earlier run it does look cold with a chance of snow next Friday somwhere within the UK. Vague I know but its seven days away.

I completely agree with you here as I am watching the ecm unfold it just looks like its a natural progression. Paul

Good morning bluearmy Sorry for asking this I might be really stupid but more Likely tired because of the crazy high winds across west Yorkshire last night. Reading your post I am not sure where you stand. Are you siding with the thoughts of GP or are you expecting a "as you were" with a continuation of low heights to the north and a strong Azores high? Regards Paul

WIB apparently its not a Bartlett its supposed to be "a displaced Azores high pressure cell" and I have just looked at most of the 18z GFS and an interesting storm is forcast for early next week with wintry showers following on behind for some parts of the uk most prob within the north western parts. I would say no further than North Wales Lol who am I to make them assumptions Paul

And the moaner of the winter awards goes to ???!!! Come PL it's only december. Who is tearing up their lrf's? it would be madness to do so now, that's like buying a lotto ticket for Saturday and tearing it up tommorow (Friday) . You have been around this forum and reading charts for quite a long time from what I remember. For me until GP writes in this or another thread and explains that his lrf has has gone wayward then I see no reason to be despondent. And bizarrely I write this as a heavy hail storm with high winds passes over Huddersfield. Regards Paul

Ian I agree with some of your post and the pv is intense today and for a few more days but the models also show the PV eroding Todays chart shows a strong PV http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111225/12/00/h500slp.png and then further along the frames on the gfs you end up with this http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111225/12/162/h500slp.png still zonal but a strong wsw flow. And if we get to this position then i reckon pretty cold http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111225/12/ecm500.240.png Merry Christmas everyone Paul

The 192 hs 12z ECM NH chart does show a split vortex, But I am not sure where we go from here. http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20111220/12/npsh500.192.png

Just had a look and p13 is my favoured ens. The ENS do seem to be all over the place, IMO nothing nailed as yet.